Learning and climate change

Learning – i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty – plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.Learning; Uncertainty; Climate change; Decision analysis

MicroRNAs in Human Diseases: From Autoimmune Diseases to Skin, Psychiatric and Neurodegenerative Diseases

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small noncoding RNA molecules that negatively regulate gene expression via degradation or translational repression of their target messenger RNAs (mRNAs). Recent studies have clearly demonstrated that miRNAs play critical roles in several biologic processes, including cell cycle, differentiation, cell development, cell growth, and apoptosis and that miRNAs are highly expressed in regulatory T (Treg) cells and a wide range of miRNAs are involved in the regulation of immunity and in the prevention of autoimmunity. It has been increasingly reported that miRNAs are associated with various human diseases like autoimmune disease, skin disease, neurological disease and psychiatric disease. Recently, the identification of mi- RNAs in skin has added a new dimension in the regulatory network and attracted significant interest in this novel layer of gene regulation. Although miRNA research in the field of dermatology is still relatively new, miRNAs have been the subject of much dermatological interest in skin morphogenesis and in regulating angiogenesis. In addition, miRNAs are moving rapidly onto center stage as key regulators of neuronal development and function in addition to important contributions to neurodegenerative disorder. Moreover, there is now compelling evidence that dysregulation of miRNA networks is implicated in the development and onset of human neruodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, Huntington's disease, Tourette's syndrome, Down syndrome, depression and schizophrenia. In this review, I briefly summarize the current studies about the roles of miRNAs in various autoimmune diseases, skin diseases, psychoneurological disorders and mental stress

The efficacy of four-slice helical CT in evaluating pancreatic trauma: a single institution experience

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Study objective</p> <p>To assess the efficacy of computed tomography (CT) in evaluating patients with pancreatic trauma.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We undertook a retrospective review of all blunt trauma patients admitted to the Chi-Mei Medical Center from January 2004 to June 2006. Every patients underwent abdominal CT scan in emergency department and the CT scans were obtained with a four-slice helical CT. Diagnosis of a pancreatic injury in these patients was by surgical observation or by CT findings. Radiographic pancreatic injuries were classified as deep or superficial lesions. Deep lesions were defined as the hematomas or lacerations >50% thickness of the pancreas. Superficial lesions were described as the hematomas or lacerations <50% thickness of the pancreas; pancreatic edema; and focal fluid accumulation around the pancreas</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Nineteen patients with pancreatic trauma, fourteen males and five females, average age 40.6 ± 21.4 years, were included. Most patients (73.7%) with pancreatic trauma had associated organ injuries. CT was performed in all patients and laparotomy in 14 patients. CT was 78.9% sensitive in detecting pancreatic trauma. All deep pancreatic lesions revealed on CT required surgical treatment, and complication was discovered in two patients undergoing delayed surgery. Superficial lesions were managed conservatively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Four-slice helical CT can detect most pancreatic trauma and provide practical therapeutic guidance. Delayed operation might result in complications and is associated with prolonged hospital stays.</p

Diet and ovarian cancer risk: a case–control study in China

This case–control study, conducted in Zhejiang, China during 1999–2000, investigated whether dietary factors have an aetiological association with ovarian cancer. Cases were 254 patients with histologically confirmed epithelial ovary cancer. The 652 controls comprised 340 hospital visitors, 261 non-neoplasm hospital outpatients without long-term diet modifications and 51 women recruited from the community. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to measure the habitual diet of cases and controls. The risks of ovarian cancer for the dietary factors were assessed by adjusted odds ratios based on multivariate logistic regression analysis, accounting for potential confounding demographic, lifestyle, familial factors and hormonal status, family ovarian cancer history and total energy intake. The ovarian cancer risk declined with increasing consumption of vegetables and fruits but vice versa with high intakes of animal fat and salted vegetables. The adjusted upper quartile odds ratio compared to the lower quartile was 0.24 (0.1–0.5) for vegetables, 0.36 (0.2–0.7) for fruits, 4.6 (2.2–9.3) for animal fat and 3.4 (2.0–5.8) for preserved (salted) vegetables with significant dose-response relationship. The risk of ovarian cancer also appeared to increase for those women preferring fat, fried, cured and smoked food

The Cow: Discovery of a Luminous, Hot, and Rapidly Evolving Transient

We present the ATLAS discovery and initial analysis of the first 18 days of the unusual transient event, ATLAS18qqn/AT2018cow. It is characterized by a high peak luminosity (~1.7 × 1044 erg s−1), rapidly evolving light curves (>5 mag rise to peak in ~3.5 days), and hot blackbody spectra, peaking at ~27,000 K that are relatively featureless and unchanging over the first two weeks. The bolometric light curve cannot be powered by radioactive decay under realistic assumptions. The detection of high-energy emission may suggest a central engine as the powering source. Using a magnetar model, we estimated an ejected mass of 0.1–0.4 M ${}_{\odot }$, which lies between that of low-energy core-collapse events and the kilonova, AT2017gfo. The spectra cooled rapidly from 27,000 to 15,000 K in just over two weeks but remained smooth and featureless. Broad and shallow emission lines appear after about 20 days, and we tentatively identify them as He i although they would be redshifted from their rest wavelengths. We rule out that there are any features in the spectra due to intermediate mass elements up to and including the Fe group. The presence of r-process elements cannot be ruled out. If these lines are due to He, then we suggest a low-mass star with residual He as a potential progenitor. Alternatively, models of magnetars formed in neutron star mergers, or accretion onto a central compact object, give plausible matches to the data

Potential for early warning of viral influenza activity in the community by monitoring clinical diagnoses of influenza in hospital emergency departments

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although syndromic surveillance systems are gaining acceptance as useful tools in public health, doubts remain about whether the anticipated early warning benefits exist. Many assessments of this question do not adequately account for the confounding effects of autocorrelation and trend when comparing surveillance time series and few compare the syndromic data stream against a continuous laboratory-based standard. We used time series methods to assess whether monitoring of daily counts of Emergency Department (ED) visits assigned a clinical diagnosis of influenza could offer earlier warning of increased incidence of viral influenza in the population compared with surveillance of daily counts of positive influenza test results from laboratories.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For the five-year period 2001 to 2005, time series were assembled of ED visits assigned a provisional ED diagnosis of influenza and of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Poisson regression models were fitted to both time series to minimise the confounding effects of trend and autocorrelation and to control for other calendar influences. To assess the relative timeliness of the two series, cross-correlation analysis was performed on the model residuals. Modelling and cross-correlation analysis were repeated for each individual year.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using the full five-year time series, short-term changes in the ED time series were estimated to precede changes in the laboratory series by three days. For individual years, the estimate was between three and 18 days. The time advantage estimated for the individual years 2003–2005 was consistently between three and four days.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Monitoring time series of ED visits clinically diagnosed with influenza could potentially provide three days early warning compared with surveillance of laboratory-confirmed influenza. When current laboratory processing and reporting delays are taken into account this time advantage is even greater.</p

Quantitative Trait Loci Associated with the Immune Response to a Bovine Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine

Infectious disease is an important problem for animal breeders, farmers and governments worldwide. One approach to reducing disease is to breed for resistance. This linkage study used a Charolais-Holstein F2 cattle cross population (n = 501) which was genotyped for 165 microsatellite markers (covering all autosomes) to search for associations with phenotypes for Bovine Respiratory Syncytial Virus (BRSV) specific total-IgG, IgG1 and IgG2 concentrations at several time-points pre- and post-BRSV vaccination. Regions of the bovine genome which influenced the immune response induced by BRSV vaccination were identified, as well as regions associated with the clearance of maternally derived BRSV specific antibodies. Significant positive correlations were detected within traits across time, with negative correlations between the pre- and post-vaccination time points. The whole genome scan identified 27 Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) on 13 autosomes. Many QTL were associated with the Thymus Helper 1 linked IgG2 response, especially at week 2 following vaccination. However the most significant QTL, which reached 5% genome-wide significance, was on BTA 17 for IgG1, also 2 weeks following vaccination. All animals had declining maternally derived BRSV specific antibodies prior to vaccination and the levels of BRSV specific antibody prior to vaccination were found to be under polygenic control with several QTL detected

First Observation of τ→3πηντ\tau\to 3\pi\eta\nu_{\tau} and τ→f1πντ\tau\to f_{1}\pi\nu_{\tau} Decays

We have observed new channels for $\tau$ decays with an $\eta$ in the final state. We study 3-prong tau decays, using the $\eta\to\gamma\gamma$ and \eta\to 3\piz decay modes and 1-prong decays with two \piz's using the $\eta\to\gamma\gamma$ channel. The measured branching fractions are \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}\pi^{-}\pi^{+}\eta\nu_{\tau}) =(3.4^{+0.6}_{-0.5}\pm0.6)\times10^{-4} and \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}2\piz\eta\nu_{\tau} =(1.4\pm0.6\pm0.3)\times10^{-4}. We observe clear evidence for $f_1\to\eta\pi\pi$ substructure and measure \B(\tau^{-}\to f_1\pi^{-}\nu_{\tau})=(5.8^{+1.4}_{-1.3}\pm1.8)\times10^{-4}. We have also searched for $\eta'(958)$ production and obtain 90% CL upper limits \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}\eta'\nu_\tau)<7.4\times10^{-5} and \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}\piz\eta'\nu_\tau)<8.0\times10^{-5}.Comment: 11 page postscript file, postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Hypoxanthine-guanine phosophoribosyltransferase (HPRT) deficiency: Lesch-Nyhan syndrome

Deficiency of hypoxanthine-guanine phosphoribosyltransferase (HPRT) activity is an inborn error of purine metabolism associated with uric acid overproduction and a continuum spectrum of neurological manifestations depending on the degree of the enzymatic deficiency. The prevalence is estimated at 1/380,000 live births in Canada, and 1/235,000 live births in Spain. Uric acid overproduction is present inall HPRT-deficient patients and is associated with lithiasis and gout. Neurological manifestations include severe action dystonia, choreoathetosis, ballismus, cognitive and attention deficit, and self-injurious behaviour. The most severe forms are known as Lesch-Nyhan syndrome (patients are normal at birth and diagnosis can be accomplished when psychomotor delay becomes apparent). Partial HPRT-deficient patients present these symptoms with a different intensity, and in the least severe forms symptoms may be unapparent. Megaloblastic anaemia is also associated with the disease. Inheritance of HPRT deficiency is X-linked recessive, thus males are generally affected and heterozygous female are carriers (usually asymptomatic). Human HPRT is encoded by a single structural gene on the long arm of the X chromosome at Xq26. To date, more than 300 disease-associated mutations in the HPRT1 gene have been identified. The diagnosis is based on clinical and biochemical findings (hyperuricemia and hyperuricosuria associated with psychomotor delay), and enzymatic (HPRT activity determination in haemolysate, intact erythrocytes or fibroblasts) and molecular tests. Molecular diagnosis allows faster and more accurate carrier and prenatal diagnosis. Prenatal diagnosis can be performed with amniotic cells obtained by amniocentesis at about 15–18 weeks' gestation, or chorionic villus cells obtained at about 10–12 weeks' gestation. Uric acid overproduction can be managed by allopurinol treatment. Doses must be carefully adjusted to avoid xanthine lithiasis. The lack of precise understanding of the neurological dysfunction has precluded development of useful therapies. Spasticity, when present, and dystonia can be managed with benzodiazepines and gamma-aminobutyric acid inhibitors such as baclofen. Physical rehabilitation, including management of dysarthria and dysphagia, special devices to enable hand control, appropriate walking aids, and a programme of posture management to prevent deformities are recommended. Self-injurious behaviour must be managed by a combination of physical restraints, behavioural and pharmaceutical treatments