Reanalysis in Earth System Science: Towards Terrestrial Ecosystem Reanalysis

A reanalysis is a physically consistent set of optimally merged simulated model states and historical observational data, using data assimilation. High computational costs for modelled processes and assimilation algorithms has led to Earth system specific reanalysis products for the atmosphere, the ocean and the land separately. Recent developments include the advanced uncertainty quantification and the generation of biogeochemical reanalysis for land and ocean. Here, we review atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses, and more in detail biogeochemical ocean and terrestrial reanalyses. In particular, we identify land surface, hydrologic and carbon cycle reanalyses which are nowadays produced in targeted projects for very specific purposes. Although a future joint reanalysis of land surface, hydrologic and carbon processes represents an analysis of important ecosystem variables, biotic ecosystem variables are assimilated only to a very limited extent. Continuous data sets of ecosystem variables are needed to explore biotic-abiotic interactions and the response of ecosystems to global change. Based on the review of existing achievements, we identify five major steps required to develop terrestrial ecosystem reanalysis to deliver continuous data streams on ecosystem dynamics

Parameter estimation by ensemble Kalman filters with transformed data: Approach and application to hydraulic tomography

Ensemble Kalman filters (EnKFs) are a successful tool for estimating state variables in atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Recent research has prepared the EnKF for parameter estimation in groundwater applications. EnKFs are optimal in the sense of Bayesian updating only if all involved variables are multivariate Gaussian. Subsurface flow and transport state variables, however, generally do not show Gaussian dependence on hydraulic log conductivity and among each other, even if log conductivity is multi-Gaussian. To improve EnKFs in this context, we apply nonlinear, monotonic transformations to the observed states, rendering them Gaussian (Gaussian anamorphosis, GA). Similar ideas have recently been presented by Beal et al. (2010) in the context of state estimation. Our work transfers and adapts this methodology to parameter estimation. Additionally, we address the treatment of measurement errors in the transformation and provide several multivariate analysis tools to evaluate the expected usefulness of GA beforehand. For illustration, we present a first-time application of an EnKF to parameter estimation from 3-D hydraulic tomography in multi-Gaussian log conductivity fields. Results show that (1) GA achieves an implicit pseudolinearization of drawdown data as a function of log conductivity and (2) this makes both parameter identification and prediction of flow and transport more accurate. Combining EnKFs with GA yields a computationally efficient tool for nonlinear inversion of data with improved accuracy. This is an attractive benefit, given that linearization-free methods such as particle filters are computationally extremely demanding

The role of prior model calibration on predictions with Ensemble Kalman Filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained

What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

Future risks for groundwater resources, due to global change are usually analyzed by driving hydrological models with the outputs of climate models. However, this model chain is subject to considerable uncertainties. Given the high uncertainties it is essential to identify the processes governing the groundwater dynamics, as these processes are likely to affect groundwater resources in the future, too. Information about the dominant mechanisms can be achieved by the analysis of long-term data, which are assumed to provide insight in the reaction of groundwater resources to changing conditions (weather, land use, water demand). Referring to this, a dataset of 30 long-term time series of precipitation dominated groundwater systems in northern Switzerland and southern Germany is collected. In order to receive additional information the analysis of the data is carried out together with hydrological model simulations. High spatio-temporal correlations, even over large distances could be detected and are assumed to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result it is suggested to prefer innovative weather-type-based downscaling methods to other stochastic downscaling approaches. In addition, with the help of a qualitative procedure to distinguish between meteorological and anthropogenic causes it was possible to identify processes which dominated the groundwater dynamics in the past. It could be shown that besides the meteorological conditions, land use changes, pumping activity and feedback mechanisms governed the groundwater dynamics. Based on these findings, recommendations to improve climate change impact studies are suggested

The importance of coupled modelling of variably saturated groundwater flow-heat transport for assessing river-aquifer interactions

This paper focuses on the role of heat transport in river-aquifer interactions for the study area Hardhof located in the Limmat valley within the city of Zurich (Switzerland). On site there are drinking water production facilities of Zurich water supply, which pump groundwater and infiltrate bank filtration water from river Limmat. The artificial recharge by basins and by wells creates a hydraulic barrier against the potentially contaminated groundwater flow from the city.A three-dimensional finite element model of the coupled variably saturated groundwater flow and heat transport was developed. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer and the leakage coefficient of the riverbed were calibrated for isothermal conditions by inverse modelling, using the pilot point method. River-aquifer interaction was modelled using a leakage concept. Coupling was considered by temperature-dependent values for hydraulic conductivity and for leakage coefficients. The quality of the coupled model was tested with the help of head and temperature measurements. Good correspondence between simulated and measured temperatures was found for the three pumping wells and seven piezometers. However, deviations were observed for one pumping well and two piezometers, which are situated in an area, where zones with important hydrogeological heterogeneity are expected. A comparison of simulation results with isothermal leakage coefficients with those of temperature-dependent leakage coefficients shows that the temperature dependence is able to reduce the head residuals close to the river by up to 30%. The largest improvements are found in the zone, where the river stage is considerably higher than the groundwater level, which is in correspondence with the expectations.Additional analyses also showed that the linear leakage concept cannot reproduce the seepage flux in a downstream section during flood events. It was found that infiltration is enhanced during flood events, which is attributed to additional infiltration areas. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved