Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics

The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45 mm yr−1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future

Representation of sharp rifts and faults mechanics in modeling ice shelf flow dynamics: Application to Brunt/Stancomb-Wills Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Ice shelves play a major role in buttressing ice sheet flow into the ocean, hence the importance of accurate numerical modeling of their stress regime. Commonly used ice flow models assume a continuous medium and are therefore complicated by the presence of rupture features (crevasses, rifts, and faults) that significantly affect the overall flow patterns. Here we apply contact mechanics and penalty methods to develop a new ice shelf flow model that captures the impact of rifts and faults on the rheology and stress distribution of ice shelves. The model achieves a best fit solution to satellite observations of ice shelf velocities to infer the following: (1) a spatial distribution of contact and friction points along detected faults and rifts, (2) a more realistic spatial pattern of ice shelf rheology, and (3) a better representation of the stress balance in the immediate vicinity of faults and rifts. Thus, applying the model to the Brunt/Stancomb-Wills Ice Shelf, Antarctica, we quantify the state of friction inside faults and the opening rates of rifts and obtain an ice shelf rheology that remains relatively constant everywhere else on the ice shelf. We further demonstrate that better stress representation has widespread application in examining aspects affecting ice shelf structure and dynamics including the extent of ice mélange in rifts and the change in fracture configurations. All are major applications for better insight into the important question of ice shelf stability

Extensive winter subglacial water storage beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet

This is the final version of the article. Available from AGU via the DOI in this record.Surface meltwater that reaches the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet exerts a fundamental impact on ice flow, but observations of catchment-wide movement and distribution of subglacial water remain limited. Using radar-sounding data from two seasons, we identify the seasonal distribution of subglacial water in western Greenland. Our analysis provides evidence of widespread subglacial water storage beneath Greenland in the wintertime. The winter storage is located primarily on bedrock ridges with higher bed elevations in excess of 200 m. During the melt season water moves to the subglacial troughs. This inverse relationship with topography indicates that the material properties of the glacier bed strongly influence subglacial drainage development. Both the spatial variations in bed properties and the initial state of the subglacial hydrology system at the start of the melt season lead to differing glacier dynamical responses to surface melting across the Greenland Ice Sheet.W.C. is a recipient of the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship. D.M.S. is supported by a grant from the NASA Cryospheric Sciences Program. H.S. is supported by grants from the NASA Cryospheric Sciences and Sea Level Rise Programs. T.T.C and R.E.B are supported by grants from National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA Cryospheric Sciences. S.P. is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council’s Centre for Polar Observatio

High-resolution ice-thickness mapping in South Greenland

Airborne radar sounding is difficult in South Greenland because of the presence of englacial water, which prevents the signal from reaching the bed. Data coverage remains suboptimal for traditional methods of ice-thickness and bed mapping that rely on geostatistical techniques, such as kriging, because important features are missing. Here we apply two alternative approaches of highresolution (̃300 m) ice-thickness mapping, that are based on the conservation of mass, to two regions of South Greenland: (1) Qooqqup Sermia and Kiattuut Sermiat, and (2) Ikertivaq. These two algorithms solve optimization problems, for which the conservation of mass is either enforced as a hard constraint, or as a soft constraint. For the first region, very few measurements are available but there is no gap in ice motion data, whereas for Ikertivaq, more ice-thickness measurements are available, but there are gaps in ice motion data. We show that mass-conservation algorithms can be used as validation tools for radar sounding. We also show that it is preferable to apply mass conservation as a hard constraint, rather than a soft constraint, as it better preserves elongated features, such as glacial valleys and ridges

Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws

Thwaites Glacier (TG), West Antarctica, has experienced rapid, potentially irreversible grounding line retreat and mass loss in response to enhanced ice shelf melting. Results from recent numerical models suggest a large spread in the evolution of the glacier in the coming decades to a century. It is therefore important to investigate how different approximations of the ice stress balance, parameterizations of basal friction and ice shelf melt parameterizations may affect projections. Here, we simulate the evolution of TG using ice sheet models of varying levels of complexity, different basal friction laws and ice shelf melt to quantify their effect on the projections. We find that the grounding line retreat and its sensitivity to ice shelf melt are enhanced when a full-Stokes model is used, a Budd friction is used and ice shelf melt is applied on partially floating elements. Initial conditions also impact the model results. Yet, all simulations suggest a rapid, sustained retreat of the glacier along the same preferred pathway. The fastest retreat rate occurs on the eastern side of the glacier, and the slowest retreat occurs across a subglacial ridge on the western side. All the simulations indicate that TG will undergo an accelerated retreat once the glacier retreats past the western subglacial ridge. Combining all the simulations, we find that the uncertainty of the projections is small in the first 30 years, with a cumulative contribution to sea level rise of 5&thinsp;mm, similar to the current rate. After 30 years, the contribution to sea level depends on the model configurations, with differences up to 300&thinsp;% over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42&thinsp;mm.</p

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheet–climate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change

Case-based decision support system for breast cancer management

Breast cancer is identified as the most common type of cancer in women worldwide with 1.6 million women around the world diagnosed every year. This prompts many active areas of research in identifying better ways to prevent, detect, and treat breast cancer. DESIREE is a European Union funded project, which aims at developing a web-based software ecosystem for the multidisciplinary management of primary breast cancer. The development of an intelligent clinical decision support system offering various modalities of decision support is one of the key objectives of the project. This paper explores case-based reasoning as a problem solving paradigm and discusses the use of an explicit domain knowledge ontology in the development of a knowledge-intensive case-based decision support system for breast cancer management

Optimal numerical solvers for transient simulations of ice flow using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM versions 4.2.5 and 4.11)

Identifying fast and robust numerical solvers is a critical issue that needs to be addressed in order to improve projections of polar ice sheets evolving in a changing climate. This work evaluates the impact of using advanced numerical solvers for transient ice-flow simulations conducted with the JPL–UCI Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We identify optimal numerical solvers by testing a broad suite of readily available solvers, ranging from direct sparse solvers to preconditioned iterative methods, on the commonly used Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for Higher-Order ice sheet Models benchmark tests. Three types of analyses are considered: mass transport, horizontal stress balance, and incompressibility. The results of the fastest solvers for each analysis type are ranked based on their scalability across mesh size and basal boundary conditions. We find that the fastest iterative solvers are  ∼ 1.5–100 times faster than the default direct solver used in ISSM, with speed-ups improving rapidly with increased mesh resolution. We provide a set of recommendations for users in search of efficient solvers to use for transient ice-flow simulations, enabling higher-resolution meshes and faster turnaround time. The end result will be improved transient simulations for short-term, highly resolved forward projections (10–100 year time scale) and also improved long-term paleo-reconstructions using higher-order representations of stresses in the ice. This analysis will also enable a new generation of comprehensive uncertainty quantification assessments of forward sea-level rise projections, which rely heavily on ensemble or sampling approaches that are inherently expensive

Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years

Pine Island Glacier, a major contributor to sea level rise in West Antarctica, has been undergoing significant changes over the last few decades. Here, we employ a three-dimensional, higher-order model to simulate its evolution over the next 50 yr in response to changes in its surface mass balance, the position of its calving front and ocean-induced ice shelf melting. Simulations show that the largest climatic impact on ice dynamics is the rate of ice shelf melting, which rapidly affects the glacier speed over several hundreds of kilometers upstream of the grounding line. Our simulations show that the speedup observed in the 1990s and 2000s is consistent with an increase in sub-ice-shelf melting. According to our modeling results, even if the grounding line stabilizes for a few decades, we find that the glacier reaction can continue for several decades longer. Furthermore, Pine Island Glacier will continue to change rapidly over the coming decades and remain a major contributor to sea level rise, even if ocean-induced melting is reduced

Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge

Calving-front dynamics is an important control on Greenland's ice mass balance. Ice front retreat of marine-terminating glaciers may, for example, lead to a loss in resistive stress, which ultimately results in glacier acceleration and thinning. Over the past decade, it has been suggested that such retreats may be triggered by warm and salty Atlantic Water, which is typically found at a depth below 200–300&thinsp;m. An increase in subglacial water discharge at glacier ice fronts due to enhanced surface runoff may also be responsible for an intensification of undercutting and calving. An increase in ocean thermal forcing or subglacial discharge therefore has the potential to destabilize marine-terminating glaciers along the coast of Greenland. It remains unclear which glaciers are currently stable but may retreat in the future and how far inland and how fast they will retreat. Here, we quantify the sensitivity and vulnerability of marine-terminating glaciers along the northwest coast of Greenland (from 72.5 to 76∘&thinsp;N) to ocean forcing and subglacial discharge using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We rely on a parameterization of undercutting based on ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge and use ocean temperature and salinity from high-resolution ECCO2 (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II) simulations at the fjord mouth to constrain the ocean thermal forcing. The ice flow model includes a calving law based on a tensile von Mises criterion. We find that some glaciers, such as Dietrichson Gletscher or Alison Glacier, are sensitive to small increases in ocean thermal forcing, while others, such as Illullip Sermia or Cornell Gletscher, are remarkably stable, even in a +3&thinsp;∘C ocean warming scenario. Under the most intense experiment, we find that Hayes Gletscher retreats by more than 50&thinsp;km inland by 2100 into a deep trough, and its velocity increases by a factor of 3 over only 23 years. The model confirms that ice–ocean interactions can trigger extensive and rapid glacier retreat, but the bed controls the rate and magnitude of the retreat. Under current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, we find that this sector of the Greenland ice sheet alone will contribute more than 1&thinsp;cm to sea level rise and up to 3&thinsp;cm by 2100 under the most extreme scenario.</p