Models and metaphors: complexity theory and through-life management in the built environment

Complexity thinking may have both modelling and metaphorical applications in the through-life management of the built environment. These two distinct approaches are examined and compared. In the first instance, some of the sources of complexity in the design, construction and maintenance of the built environment are identified. The metaphorical use of complexity in management thinking and its application in the built environment are briefly examined. This is followed by an exploration of modelling techniques relevant to built environment concerns. Non-linear and complex mathematical techniques such as fuzzy logic, cellular automata and attractors, may be applicable to their analysis. Existing software tools are identified and examples of successful built environment applications of complexity modelling are given. Some issues that arise include the definition of phenomena in a mathematically usable way, the functionality of available software and the possibility of going beyond representational modelling. Further questions arising from the application of complexity thinking are discussed, including the possibilities for confusion that arise from the use of metaphor. The metaphor of a 'commentary machine' is suggested as a possible way forward and it is suggested that an appropriate linguistic analysis can in certain situations reduce perceived complexity

Piston ring oil film thickness measurements in a four-stroke diesel engine during steady-state, start-up and shut-down

Internal combustion engine research predominantly focuses on routes to lower emissions to meet various emission legislation. Lower emissions can be achieved with increased fuel efficiency and less lubricant throw off/lubricant combustion in the piston ring zone. These are all dependent on the oil film that forms between the liner and piston components. This article details the use of ultrasonic sensors to study the lubricant film thickness between the engine liner and piston rings/skirt in a fired diesel two-cylinder YTR engine. The testing regime covered a series of engine speeds and loading levels and found the minimum oil film thickness to vary from 1 to 3.5 μm. Spectrograms (time-varying ultrasonic amplitude spectra) have shown a residual oil film on the liner, first present after the skirt moves above the sensor that peaks at 440 μm, which then dissipates until the next oil control ring passage. Start-up and shut-down captures have visualised the build-up and reduction of the film thickness, in which during start-up typically a 2-s interval between the first ring passage and a consistent film thickness was seen. Whilst the shut-down tests showed a lesser variation, anticipated to be due to the oil pump already operating and is, therefore, less subjective to a reduction in engine speed providing a threshold of oil remains on the liner. Measurements like this help to describe how lubrication occurs in the piston ring zone and hence can optimise component design and an oil injection schedule

Retail Price and Point of Sale Display of Tobacco in the UK: A Descriptive Study of Small Retailers

Background: Since the implementation of the 2002 Tobacco Advertising and Promotion Act, point-of-sale (PoS) tobacco displays are one of few remaining means of communication between the tobacco industry and customers in the UK. This study aimed to explore the characteristics of tobacco displays in a UK city, and particularly to assess the tobacco prices and promotional offers, types and pack sizes on display. Methods: Digital pictures of PoS displays were taken in 117 small retail shops in Nottingham in mid 2010. Data were analysed using Windows Photo Gallery software and SPSS version 16. Results: Just over half (52%) of cigarette packs on display were packs of 20, and 43 % packs of 10. Cigarette prices differed substantially between brands, ranging from £4.19 to £6.85 for 20-packs, and from £2.12 to £3.59 for 10-packs. Forty four percent of cigarette packs and 40 % of RYO (Roll-Your-Own) tobacco pouches, almost exclusively lower priced brands, were displayed with a pricemark, implying a promotional price offer. Eighty percent of 20-pack cigarette brand or brand variants on sale were priced below the EU-defined Most Popular Price Category (MPPC) for the UK in 2010; 45 % were priced below the Weighted Average Price (WAP), which replaced the MPPC in 2011. Conclusion: PoS displays communicate value by displaying a high proportion of lower cost brands, and smaller and hence lower-cost packs, and by displaying price discounts on packs. The MPPC substantially overestimated the prices at whic

Inequalities, harm reduction and non-combustible nicotine products:A meta-ethnography of qualitative evidence

BACKGROUND: We sought to review qualitative evidence on how smokers in different socioeconomic groups engage with non-combustible nicotine products (NCNP), including electronic cigarettes and nicotine replacement therapies, in order to provide insight into how these products might impact on smoking inequalities. METHODS: We searched ten electronic databases in February 2017 using terms relating to NCNP and socioeconomic status. We included qualitative studies that were published since 1980 and were available in English. We used guidelines adapted from the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme for appraising qualitative research. RESULTS: The review only identified studies exploring the attitudes of socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers towards NCNP for harm reduction or cessation purposes (i.e. we did not identify any relevant studies of more advantaged socioeconomic groups). Using a lines-of-argument meta-ethnographic approach, we identified a predominantly pessimistic attitude to NCNP for harm reduction or cessation of smoking due to: wider circumstances of socioeconomic disadvantage; lack of a perceived advantage of alternative products over smoking; and a perceived lack of information about relative harms of NCNP compared to smoking. Optimistic findings, although fewer, suggested the potential of NCNP being taken up among smokers experiencing socioeconomic disadvantage. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our review highlights the importance of considering the social, cultural and economic circumstances that influence experiences of smoking and of alternative product use

Application of Healthcare 'Big Data' in CNS Drug Research: The Example of the Neurological and mental health Global Epidemiology Network (NeuroGEN)

Neurological and psychiatric (mental health) disorders have a large impact on health burden globally. Cognitive disorders (including dementia) and stroke are leading causes of disability. Mental health disorders, including depression, contribute up to one-third of total years lived with disability. The Neurological and mental health Global Epidemiology Network (NeuroGEN) is an international multi-database network that harnesses administrative and electronic medical records from Australia, Asia, Europe and North America. Using these databases NeuroGEN will investigate medication use and health outcomes in neurological and mental health disorders. A key objective of NeuroGEN is to facilitate high-quality observational studies to address evidence-practice gaps where randomized controlled trials do not provide sufficient information on medication benefits and risks that is specific to vulnerable population groups. International multi-database research facilitates comparisons across geographical areas and jurisdictions, increases statistical power to investigate small subpopulations or rare outcomes, permits early post-approval assessment of safety and effectiveness, and increases generalisability of results. Through bringing together international researchers in pharmacoepidemiology, NeuroGEN has the potential to be paradigm-changing for observational research to inform evidence-based prescribing. The first focus of NeuroGEN will be to address evidence-gaps in the treatment of chronic comorbidities in people with dementia

hnRNP A1 and hnRNP F Modulate the Alternative Splicing of Exon 11 of the Insulin Receptor Gene

Exon 11 of the insulin receptor gene (INSR) is alternatively spliced in a developmentally and tissue-specific manner. Linker scanning mutations in a 5′ GA-rich enhancer in intron 10 identified AGGGA sequences that are important for enhancer function. Using RNA-affinity purification and mass spectrometry, we identified hnRNP F and hnRNP A1 binding to these AGGGA sites and also to similar motifs at the 3′ end of the intron. The hnRNPs have opposite functional effects with hnRNP F promoting and hnRNP A1 inhibiting exon 11 inclusion, and deletion of the GA-rich elements eliminates both effects. We also observed specific binding of hnRNP A1 to the 5′ splice site of intron 11. The SR protein SRSF1 (SF2/ASF) co-purified on the GA-rich enhancer and, interestingly, also competes with hnRNP A1 for binding to the splice site. A point mutation -3U→C decreases hnRNP A1 binding, increases SRSF1 binding and renders the exon constitutive. Lastly, our data point to a functional interaction between hnRNP F and SRSF1 as a mutant that eliminates SRSF1 binding to exon 11, or a SRSF1 knockdown, which prevents the stimulatory effect of hnRNP F over expression

Larger and More Prominent Graphic Health Warnings on Plain-Packaged Tobacco Products and Avoidant Responses in Current Smokers: a Qualitative Study

Background: The introduction of tobacco plain packaging legislation in Australia meant that all tobacco products were to be sold in plain dark-brown packaging with 75 % front-of-pack graphic health warnings and standardised font type and size for brand name and product variant. The change in the size and prominence of the warnings has been proposed as a reason for behaviour change in smokers in terms of increased intentions to quit and quit attempts. Purpose: The current research examined attitudes and beliefs of cigarette smokers toward the increased size and prominence of the warnings and effects on their behaviour. Method: Participants (N = 160) completed open-ended responses to questions on beliefs, attitudes and responses to plain packaging. Responses were subjected to inductive thematic content analysis for key themes. Results: Four themes emerged from the analysis: emotional response to packaging, scepticism of health warnings, warnings and cessation behaviour, and avoidant coping behaviours. Participants reported increased negative emotional responses to the packaging and made specific reference to the graphic health warnings. Some participants attempted to discredit the messages. Others reported increased intentions to quit or quitting attempts. There were pervasive reports of avoidant responses including covering or hiding the warnings. Conclusion: Consistent with theories of illness perceptions and coping, current findings indicate that the larger, prominent graphic health warnings on plain-packaged tobacco products had pervasive effects on threat perceptions and subsequent behavioural responses. While some of the reported responses were adaptive (e.g. attempts to quit), others were maladaptive (e.g. avoiding the warnings)

Prediction of enteric methane production, yield and intensity of beef cattle using an intercontinental database

Enteric methane (CH4) production attributable to beef cattle contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions. Reliably estimating this contribution requires extensive CH4 emission data from beef cattle under different management conditions worldwide. The objectives were to: 1) predict CH4 production (g d¬-1 animal-1), yield [g (kg dry matter intake; DMI)-1] and intensity [g (kg average daily gain)-1] using an intercontinental database (data from Europe, North America, Brazil, Australia and South Korea); 2) assess the impact of geographic region, and of higher- and lower-forage diets. Linear models were developed by incrementally adding covariates. A K-fold cross-validation indicated that a CH4 production equation using only DMI that was fitted to all available data had a root mean square prediction error (RMSPE; % of observed mean) of 31.2%. Subsets containing data with ≥ 25% and ≤ 18% dietary forage contents had an RMSPE of 30.8 and 34.2%, with the all-data CH4 production equation, whereas these errors decreased to 29.3 and 28.4%, respectively, when using CH4 prediction equations fitted to these subsets. The RMSPE of the ≥ 25% forage subset further decreased to 24.7% when using multiple regression. Europe- and North America-specific subsets predicted by the best performing ≥ 25% forage multiple regression equation had RMSPE of 24.5 and 20.4%, whereas these errors were 24.5 and 20.0% with region-specific equations, respectively. The developed equations had less RMSPE than extant equations evaluated for all data (22.5 vs. 23.2%), for higher-forage (21.2 vs. 23.1%), but not for the lower-forage subsets (28.4 vs. 27.9%). Splitting the dataset by forage content did not improve CH4 yield or intensity predictions. Predicting beef cattle CH4 production using energy conversion factors, as applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indicated that adequate forage content-based and region-specific energy conversion factors improve prediction accuracy and are preferred in national or global inventories