Climate Change, Foodborne Pathogens, and Illness in Higher Income Countries

Purpose of review: We present a review of the likely consequences of climate change for foodborne pathogens and associated human illness in higher income countries. Recent findings: The relationships between climate and food are complex and hence the impacts of climate change uncertain. This makes it difficult to know which foodborne pathogens will be most affected, what the specific effects will be, and on what timescales changes might occur. Hence, a focus upon current capacity and adaptation potential against foodborne pathogens is essential. We highlight a number of developments that may enhance preparedness for climate change. These include: • Adoption of novel surveillance methods, such as syndromic methods, to speed up detection and increase the fidelity of intervention in foodborne outbreaks • Genotype based approaches to surveillance of food pathogens to enhance spatio-temporal resolution in tracing and tracking of illness • Ever increasing integration of plant, animal and human surveillance systems, one-health, to maximize potential for identifying threats • Increased commitment to cross-border (global) information initiatives (including big data) • Improved clarity regarding the governance of complex societal issues such as the conflict between food safety and food waste • Strong user centric (social) communications strategies to engage diverse stakeholder groups Summary: The impact of climate change upon foodborne pathogens and associated illness is uncertain. This emphasises the need to enhance current capacity and adaptation potential against foodborne illness. A range of developments are explored in this paper to enhance preparedness

Accuracy of syndrome definitions based on diagnoses in physician claims

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Community clinics offer potential for timelier outbreak detection and monitoring than emergency departments. However, the accuracy of syndrome definitions used in surveillance has never been evaluated in community settings. This study's objective was to assess the accuracy of syndrome definitions based on diagnostic codes in physician claims for identifying 5 syndromes (fever, gastrointestinal, neurological, rash, and respiratory including influenza-like illness) in community clinics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We selected a random sample of 3,600 community-based primary care physicians who practiced in the fee-for-service system in the province of Quebec, Canada in 2005-2007. We randomly selected 10 visits per physician from their claims, stratifying on syndrome type and presence, diagnosis, and month. Double-blinded chart reviews were conducted by telephone with consenting physicians to obtain information on patient diagnoses for each sampled visit. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) of physician claims were estimated by comparison to chart review.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>1,098 (30.5%) physicians completed the chart review. A chart entry on the date of the corresponding claim was found for 10,529 (95.9%) visits. The sensitivity of syndrome definitions based on diagnostic codes in physician claims was low, ranging from 0.11 (fever) to 0.44 (respiratory), the specificity was high, and the PPV was moderate to high, ranging from 0.59 (fever) to 0.85 (respiratory). We found that rarely used diagnostic codes had a higher probability of being false-positives, and that more commonly used diagnostic codes had a higher PPV.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Future research should identify physician, patient, and encounter characteristics associated with the accuracy of diagnostic codes in physician claims. This would enable public health to improve syndromic surveillance, either by focusing on physician claims whose diagnostic code is more likely to be accurate, or by using all physician claims and weighing each according to the likelihood that its diagnostic code is accurate.</p

The relationship between maternal education and mortality among women giving birth in health care institutions: Analysis of the cross sectional WHO Global Survey on Maternal and Perinatal Health

Background: Approximately one-third of a million women die each year from pregnancy-related conditions. Three-quarters of these deaths are considered avoidable. Millennium Development Goal five calls for a reduction in maternal mortality and the establishment of universal access to high quality reproductive health care. There is evidence of a relationship between lower levels of maternal education and higher maternal mortality. This study examines the relationship between maternal education and maternal mortality among women giving birth in health care institutions and investigates the association of maternal age, marital status, parity, institutional capacity and state-level investment in health care with these relationships.Methods: Cross-sectional information was collected on 287,035 inpatients giving birth in 373 health care institutions in 24 countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, between 2004-2005 (in Africa and Latin America) and 2007-2008 (in Asia) as part of the WHO Global Survey on Maternal and Perinatal Health. Analyses investigated associations between indicators measured at the individual, institutional and country level and maternal mortality during the intrapartum period: from admission to, until discharge from, the institution where women gave birth. There were 363 maternal deaths.Results: In the adjusted models, women with no education had 2.7 times and those with between one and six years of education had twice the risk of maternal mortality of women with more than 12 years of education. Institutional capacity was not associated with maternal mortality in the adjusted model. Those not married or cohabiting had almost twice the risk of death of those who were. There was a significantly higher risk of death among those aged over 35 (compared with those aged between 20 and 25 years), those with higher numbers of previous births and lower levels of state investment in health care. There were also additional effects relating to country of residence which were not explained in the model.Conclusions: Lower levels of maternal education were associated with higher maternal mortality even amongst women able to access facilities providing intrapartum care. More attention should be given to the wider social determinants of health when devising strategies to reduce maternal mortality and to achieve the increasingly elusive MDG for maternal mortality

Modelling the impact of toxic and disturbance stress on white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) populations

Several studies have related breeding success and survival of sea eagles to toxic or non-toxic stress separately. In the present investigation, we analysed single and combined impacts of both toxic and disturbance stress on populations of white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla), using an analytical single-species model. Chemical and eco(toxico)logical data reported from laboratory and field studies were used to parameterise and validate the model. The model was applied to assess the impact of ∑PCB, DDE and disturbance stress on the white-tailed eagle population in The Netherlands. Disturbance stress was incorporated through a 1.6% reduction in survival and a 10–50% reduction in reproduction. ∑PCB contamination from 1950 up to 1987 was found to be too high to allow the return of white-tailed eagle as a breeding species in that period. ∑PCB and population trends simulated for 2006–2050 suggest that future population growth is still reduced. Disturbance stress resulted in a reduced population development. The combination of both toxic and disturbance stress varied from a slower population development to a catastrophical reduction in population size, where the main cause was attributed to the reduction in reproduction of 50%. Application of the model was restricted by the current lack of quantitative dose–response relationships between non-toxic stress and survival and reproduction. Nevertheless, the model provides a first step towards integrating and quantifying the impacts of multiple stressors on white-tailed eagle populations

A surveillance sector review applied to infectious diseases at a country level

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The new International Health Regulations (IHR) require World Health Organization (WHO) member states to assess their core capacity for surveillance. Such reviews also have the potential to identify important surveillance gaps, improve the organisation of disparate surveillance systems and to focus attention on <it>upstream </it>hazards, determinants and interventions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a <it>surveillance sector review </it>method for evaluating all of the surveillance systems and related activities across a sector, in this case those concerned with infectious diseases in New Zealand. The first stage was a systematic description of these surveillance systems using a newly developed framework and classification system. Key informant interviews were conducted to validate the available information on the systems identified.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 91 surveillance systems and related activities in the 12 coherent categories of infectious diseases examined. The majority (n = 40 or 44%) of these were disease surveillance systems. They covered all categories, particularly for more severe outcomes including those resulting in death or hospitalisations. Except for some notifiable diseases and influenza, surveillance of less severe, but important infectious diseases occurring in the community was largely absent. There were 31 systems (34%) for surveillance of <it>upstream </it>infectious disease hazards, including risk and protective factors. This area tended to have many potential gaps and lack integration, partly because such systems were operated by a range of different agencies, often outside the health sector. There were fewer surveillance systems for determinants, including population size and characteristics (n = 9), and interventions (n = 11).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It was possible to create and populate a workable framework for describing all the infectious diseases surveillance systems and related activities in a single developed country and to identify potential surveillance sector gaps. This is the first stage in a review process that will lead to identification of priorities for surveillance sector development.</p

Tevatron Run II combination of the effective leptonic electroweak mixing angle

Drell-Yan lepton pairs produced in the process pp→â.,"+â.,"-+X through an intermediate γ∗/Z boson have an asymmetry in their angular distribution related to the spontaneous symmetry breaking of the electroweak force and the associated mixing of its neutral gauge bosons. The CDF and D0 experiments have measured the effective-leptonic electroweak mixing parameter sin2θefflept using electron and muon pairs selected from the full Tevatron proton-antiproton data sets collected in 2001-2011, corresponding to 9-10 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. The combination of these measurements yields the most precise result from hadron colliders, sin2θefflept=0.23148±0.00033. This result is consistent with, and approaches in precision, the best measurements from electron-positron colliders. The standard model inference of the on-shell electroweak mixing parameter sin2θW, or equivalently the W-boson mass MW, using the zfitter software package yields sin2θW=0.22324±0.00033 or equivalently, MW=80.367±0.017 GeV/c2