Estimates of Seismic Potential in the Marmara Sea Region from Block Models of Secular Deformation Constrained by Global Positioning System Measurements

We model the geodetically observed secular velocity field in northwestern Turkey with a block model that accounts for recoverable elastic-strain accumulation. The block model allows us to estimate internally consistent fault slip rates and locking depths. The northern strand of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) carries approximately four times as much right-lateral motion (∼24 mm/yr) as does the southern strand. In the Marmara Sea region, the data show strain accumulation to be highly localized. We find that a straight fault geometry with a shallow locking depth of 6-7 km fits the observed Global Positioning System velocities better than does a stepped fault geometry that follows the northern and eastern edges of the sea. This shallow locking depth suggests that the moment release associated with an earthquake on these faults should be smaller, by a factor of 2.3, than previously inferred assuming a locking depth of 15 km.Earth and Planetary Science

Amniotic fluid deficiency and congenital abnormalities both influence fluctuating asymmetry in developing limbs of human deceased fetuses

Fluctuating asymmetry (FA), as an indirect measure of developmental instability (DI), has been intensively studied for associations with stress and fitness. Patterns, however, appear heterogeneous and the underlying causes remain largely unknown. One aspect that has received relatively little attention in the literature is the consequence of direct mechanical effects on asymmetries. The crucial prerequisite for FA to reflect DI is that environmental conditions on both sides should be identical. This condition may be violated during early human development if amniotic fluid volume is deficient, as the resulting mechanical pressures may increase asymmetries. Indeed, we showed that limb bones of deceased human fetuses exhibited increased asymmetry, when there was not sufficient amniotic fluid (and, thus, space) in the uterine cavity. As amniotic fluid deficiency is known to cause substantial asymmetries and abnormal limb development, these subtle asymmetries are probably at least in part caused by the mechanical pressures. On the other hand, deficiencies in amniotic fluid volume are known to be associated with other congenital abnormalities that may disturb DI. More specifically, urogenital abnormalities can directly affect/reduce amniotic fluid volume. We disentangled the direct mechanical effects on FA from the indirect effects of urogenital abnormalities, the latter presumably representing DI. We discovered that both factors contributed significantly to the increase in FA. However, the direct mechanical effect of uterine pressure, albeit statistically significant, appeared less important than the effects of urogenital abnormalities, with an effect size only two-third as large. We, thus, conclude that correcting for the relevant direct factors allowed for a representative test of the association between DI and stress, and confirmed that fetuses form a suitable model system to increase our understanding in patterns of FA and symmetry development.Research Fund of the University of Antwerp, mobility grant from the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO)

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Investigation of long period crustal deformation on the inactive branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

The western part of North Anatolian Fault (NAF) bifurcates around Mudurnu into two fault segments: northern and southern branch. The latter bifurcates again at west of Pamukova and creates middle strand. This study aimed to analyze crustal movement along the middle strand near Iznik which is considered as inactive fault. We focused on a microgeodetic network called General Command of Mapping-Istanbul Technical University (GCM-ITU) network around this segment. In order to obtain displacement values, five campaigns performed on the network which were used in the study. The displacements of the stations were estimated relative to the fixed stations located at the south of the network. The coordinates of the stations were calculated from the triangulation measurements realized in 1941 and 1963, trilateration measurements in 1981, and GPS campaigns in 2004 and 2007. Then, mean displacements of the network ranging between 7 mm/yr and 18 mm/yr were obtained for these years. <br><br> In the second part of the study, the GPS data were re-processed by adding three stations from Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET). Details of MAGNET can be found Ergintav et al. (2002). Estimated displacements were ranging between 3 mm/yr and 13 mm/yr for 2004 and 2007. TUBI station of IGS network was taken as stable

Monitoring vertical displacements by precise levelling: a case study along the Tuzla Fault, Izmir, Turkey

The Aegean region and its surrounding area of Western Turkey is one of the most seismically active and rapidly deforming regions in the world. The study area, Izmir, is located between 26° 15′–28° 20′ E longitude and 37° 45′–39° 15′ N latitude in the Aegean region of Western Anatolia. The Tuzla Fault passes through Izmir, which is the third largest city in Turkey. In this study, we approach the problem of estimating and investigating the vertical displacements along the Tuzla Fault using a network of high precision levelling line. We established a levelling route with eight benchmarks, along the fault line. Six precise levelling campaigns were performed between 2009 and 2012, and the collected data in the surveying campaigns were processed by using the least-squares adjustment method and global testing in order to evaluate the vertical displacement. The results of the precise levelling indicated that the vertical displacements in the study area are not as significant in this period as were expected. However, compared with previous studies conducted in the same area, this study is different not only from the technique applied, but also it is carried out for the first time

Growth and Fluctuating Asymmetry of Human Newborns: Influence of Inbreeding and Parental Education

Historically, medical concerns about the deleterious effects of closely inbred marriages have focused on the risk posed by recessive Mendelian disease, with much less attention to developmental instability. We studied the effects of inbreeding (first-cousin marriage) on growth and fluctuating asymmetry of 200 full-term infants (101 inbred and 99 outbred) whose parents were of similar socioeconomic status in Sivas Province, Turkey. In addition to differences in their mean inbreeding coefficients (f = 1/16 for first cousins and f < 1/1,024 for unrelated parents), the consanguineous parents were less well educated (3 years, on average for both husbands and wives). We measured weight, height, head circumference, and chest circumference of the newborns, as well as four bilateral traits (ear width, ear length, and second and fourth digit lengths). After taking education into account, none of the measures of size (weight, height, head circumference, and chest circumference) and fluctuating asymmetry differed between the inbred and outbred groups. Male children of well-educated parents, however, were larger and had less fluctuating asymmetry. Female children of well-educated parents weighed more than those of less well-educated parents, but were otherwise indistinguishable for height, head circumference, chest circumference, and fluctuating asymmetry. We conclude that inbreeding depression causes neither an increase in fluctuating asymmetry of full-term newborns, nor a decrease in body size. Unmeasured variables correlated with education appear to have an effect on fluctuating asymmetry and size of male children and only a weak effect on size (weight) of female children. Am J Phys Anthropol 153:45-51, 2014. (c) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

WEGENER 2010

The Journal of Geodynamics is an international and interdisciplinary forum for the publication of results and discussions of solid earth research in geodetic, geophysical, geological and geochemical geodynamics, with special emphasis on the large-scale processes involved. Papers addressing interdisciplinary aspects, analyses, results and interpretation will receive special attention

DETECTION OF COASTLINE DEFORMATION USING REMOTE SENSING AND GEODETIC SURVEYS

The coastal areas are being destroyed due to the usage that effect the natural balance. Unconsciously sand mining from the sea for nearshore nourishment and construction uses are the main ones. Physical interferences for mining of sand cause an ecologic threat to the coastal environment. However, use of marine sand is inevitable because of economic reasons or unobtainable land-based sand resources. The most convenient solution in such a protection–usage dilemma is to reduce negative impacts of sand production from marine. This depends on the accurate determination of criteriaon production place, style, and amount of sand. With this motivation, nearshore geodedic surveying studies performed on Kilyos Campus of Bogazici University located on the Black Sea coast, north of Istanbul, Turkey between 2001-2002. The study area extends 1 km in the longshore. Geodetic survey was carried out in the summer of 2001 to detect the initial condition for the shoreline. Long-term seasonal changes in shoreline positions were determined biannually. The coast was measured with post-processed kinematic GPS. Besides, shoreline change has studied using Landsat imagery between the years 1986-2015. The data set of Landsat 5 imageries were dated 05.08.1986 and 31.08.2007 and Landsat 7 imageries were dated 21.07.2001 and 28.07.2015. Landcover types in the study area were analyzed on the basis of pixel based classification method. Firstly, unsupervised classification based on ISODATA (Iterative Self Organizing Data Analysis Technique) has been applied and spectral clusters have been determined that gives prior knowledge about the study area. In the second step, supervised classification was carried out by using the three different approaches which are minimum-distance, parallelepiped and maximum-likelihood. All pixel based classification processes were performed with ENVI 4.8 image processing software. Results of geodetic studies and classification outputs will be presented in this paper

Slip rates and locking depth variation along central and easternmost segments of North Anatolian Fault

International audienceWhile the kinematics of Anatolia plate and the North Anatolian Fault System (NAFS) has been studied extensively, the slip rate and locking depth along the NAFS are usually assumed constant in the analyses due to the lack of sufficient data. This is also partly due to the reasonably good fit of Euler small circle and partly due to the lack of spatial resolution of observations to determine slip rates independently from locking depths. On the other hand, recent geodetic studies show a contrast for locking depth between Marmara and other parts of the NAFS, implying a non-uniform locking depth across the NAFS. In this study, we analyse new GPS data and homogenously combine available data sets covering the eastern part of the NAFS to form the most complete data set. In particular, we incorporate the first results of Turkish Real-Time Kinematic GPS Network (CORS-TR) into our data set. A detailed analysis of three profiles within the NAFS reveals an increase of locking depth in the middle profile to 19.1 ± 3.4 km from 11.9 ± 3.5 km in the easternmost profile while the slip rate is nearly constant (20–22 mm yr−1), which implies a variation of strain rate of ∼100 nanostrain yr−1. Assuming a constant locking depth throughout whole NAFS gives an average locking depth of 14.3 ± 1.7 km. Our best estimates of slip rates in block modelling which takes the variation of locking depths into account are in the range between 22.5 and 22.8 mm yr−1 over eastern part of the NAFS