Unstable coronal loops : numerical simulations with predicted observational signatures

We present numerical studies of the nonlinear, resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) evolution of coronal loops. For these simulations we assume that the loops carry no net current, as might be expected if the loop had evolved due to vortex flows. Furthermore the initial equilibrium is taken to be a cylindrical flux tube with line-tied ends. For a given amount of twist in the magnetic field it is well known that once such a loop exceeds a critical length it becomes unstableto ideal MHD instabilities. The early evolution of these instabilities generates large current concentrations. Firstly we show that these current concentrations are consistent with the formation of a current sheet. Magnetic reconnection can only occur in the vicinity of these current concentrations and we therefore couple the resistivity to the local current density. This has the advantage of avoiding resistive diffusion in regions where it should be negligible. We demonstrate the importance of this procedure by comparison with simulations based on a uniform resistivity. From our numerical experiments we are able to estimate some observational signatures for unstable coronal loops. These signatures include: the timescale of the loop brightening; the temperature increase; the energy released and the predicted observable flow speeds. Finally we discuss to what extent these observational signatures are consistent with the properties of transient brightening loops.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figure

Current driven rotating kink mode in a plasma column with a non-line-tied free end

First experimental measurements are presented for the kink instability in a linear plasma column which is insulated from an axial boundary by finite sheath resistivity. Instability threshold below the classical Kruskal-Shafranov threshold, axially asymmetric mode structure and rotation are observed. These are accurately reproduced by a recent kink theory, which includes axial plasma flow and one end of the plasma column that is free to move due to a non-line-tied boundary condition.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figure

Evidence for a singularity in ideal magnetohydrodynamics: implications for fast reconnection

Numerical evidence for a finite-time singularity in ideal 3D magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) is presented. The simulations start from two interlocking magnetic flux rings with no initial velocity. The magnetic curvature force causes the flux rings to shrink until they come into contact. This produces a current sheet between them. In the ideal compressible calculations, the evidence for a singularity in a finite time $t_c$ is that the peak current density behaves like $|J|_\infty \sim 1/(t_c-t)$ for a range of sound speeds (or plasma betas). For the incompressible calculations consistency with the compressible calculations is noted and evidence is presented that there is convergence to a self-similar state. In the resistive reconnection calculations the magnetic helicity is nearly conserved and energy is dissipated.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Kink instabilities in jets from rotating magnetic fields

We have performed 2.5D and 3D simulations of conical jets driven by the rotation of an ordered, large-scale magnetic field in a stratified atmosphere. The simulations cover about three orders of magnitude in distance to capture the centrifugal acceleration as well as the evolution past the Alfven surface. We find that the jets develop kink instabilities, the characteristics of which depend on the velocity profile imposed at the base of the flow. The instabilities are especially pronounced with a rigid rotation profile, which induces a shearless magnetic field. The jet's expansion appears to be limiting the growth of Alfven mode instabilities.Comment: 10 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Conservation of the Illinois flora: A climate change vulnerability assessment of 73 plant species

It will be important for land managers, ecological researchers and policymakers to understand how predicted climate changes may affect the flora of Illinois. A climate change vulnerability assessment was completed in 2011 for the162 Animal Species in Greatest Need of Conservation using NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) tool. Here we selected 73plant species found in Illinois and calculated their relative vulnerabilities to predicted climate changes, also using the NatureServe CCVI tool. We selected species from several groups that we felt would be broadly representative of the Illinois flora. These groups included: rare plants, invasive plants, important prairie species, important woodland/savanna species, important forest species, and plants important to society. We compiled and entered data regarding both the species’ exposures to predicted climate changes and their sensitivities to those changes. Exposures were determined by overlapping species range maps for Illinois with maps of temperature and moisture (AET:PET) predictions for the middle of this century. Species sensitivities were determined by interviewing between 4 and 12 experts for each plant species. Experts answered questions found in the CCVI tool regarding the species’ biologies, ecologies and behaviors. Results for each individual survey were averaged for each species. Results fell into one of five vulnerability categories: Extremely Vulnerable, Highly Vulnerable, Moderately Vulnerable, Not Vulnerable/Presumed Stable, and Not Vulnerable/Increase Likely. Results for these 73species in Illinois fell into all 5 vulnerability categories, with the majority (67%) falling into the Presumed Stable category. The species most vulnerable to predicted climate changes were all of conservation concern; most were federal or state listed species. Native species tended to be more vulnerable than non-natives, and plants important to prairies, savannas and forests were equally vulnerable to predicted changes. The four species were ranked as likely to increase in population size or range extent due to predicted climate changes were: Ailanthus altissima(tree of heaven), Ambrosia artemisiifolia(ragweed), Microstegium vimineum(Japanese stiltgrass) and Toxicodendron radicans(poison ivy). We advocate for 8 important next-steps to ensure adequate conservation of Illinois plants in a future with climate change, based on the findings of this report: 1) Investigate the climate change vulnerabilities of all rare plants in Illinois. Rare plants are the most vulnerable group of species in this report. 2) Prioritize research on plants’ abilities to phenologically track changes in seasonality, population genetics, species interactions, dispersal distances, thermal and hydrological tolerancesand soil preferences/tolerances. 3) Continue to monitor population trends. Increase capacity to monitor species with the most uncertain responses to climate changes, the most vulnerable species, and all rare species. 4) Monitor invasive speciesfor changes in populations and behavior. Assess all invasive species using NatureServe’s CCVI tool or another tool. 5) Increase connectivity between natural areas. Increase acreage of natural areas. 6) Managers, policymakers, researchers and the public shouldwork together to fully consider the role that assisted migration should or should not play in Illinois plant conservation. 7) Compile work done by various agencies and NGOs on the climate change vulnerabilities of Illinois species and ecosystems to detect trends, and to identify appropriate research, management and policy priorities. 8) Use adaptive management approaches to care for natural areas in Illinois in order to best achieve land management goals in an uncertain future.Illinois Natural History SurveyIllinois Department of Natural ResourcesIllinois Department of Transportationunpublishednot peer reviewedOpe

The Flare-energy Distributions Generated by Kink-unstable Ensembles of Zero-net-current Coronal Loops

It has been proposed that the million degree temperature of the corona is due to the combined effect of barely-detectable energy releases, so called nanoflares, that occur throughout the solar atmosphere. Alas, the nanoflare density and brightness implied by this hypothesis means that conclusive verification is beyond present observational abilities. Nevertheless, we investigate the plausibility of the nanoflare hypothesis by constructing a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model that can derive the energy of a nanoflare from the nature of an ideal kink instability. The set of energy-releasing instabilities is captured by an instability threshold for linear kink modes. Each point on the threshold is associated with a unique energy release and so we can predict a distribution of nanoflare energies. When the linear instability threshold is crossed, the instability enters a nonlinear phase as it is driven by current sheet reconnection. As the ensuing flare erupts and declines, the field transitions to a lower energy state, which is modelled by relaxation theory, i.e., helicity is conserved and the ratio of current to field becomes invariant within the loop. We apply the model so that all the loops within an ensemble achieve instability followed by energy-releasing relaxation. The result is a nanoflare energy distribution. Furthermore, we produce different distributions by varying the loop aspect ratio, the nature of the path to instability taken by each loop and also the level of radial expansion that may accompany loop relaxation. The heating rate obtained is just sufficient for coronal heating. In addition, we also show that kink instability cannot be associated with a critical magnetic twist value for every point along the instability threshold

Deterministically Driven Avalanche Models of Solar Flares

We develop and discuss the properties of a new class of lattice-based avalanche models of solar flares. These models are readily amenable to a relatively unambiguous physical interpretation in terms of slow twisting of a coronal loop. They share similarities with other avalanche models, such as the classical stick--slip self-organized critical model of earthquakes, in that they are driven globally by a fully deterministic energy loading process. The model design leads to a systematic deficit of small scale avalanches. In some portions of model space, mid-size and large avalanching behavior is scale-free, being characterized by event size distributions that have the form of power-laws with index values, which, in some parameter regimes, compare favorably to those inferred from solar EUV and X-ray flare data. For models using conservative or near-conservative redistribution rules, a population of large, quasiperiodic avalanches can also appear. Although without direct counterparts in the observational global statistics of flare energy release, this latter behavior may be relevant to recurrent flaring in individual coronal loops. This class of models could provide a basis for the prediction of large solar flares.Comment: 24 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in Solar Physic