HETEROFOR 1.0: A spatially explicit model for exploring the response of structurally complex forests to uncertain future conditions-Part 2: Phenology and water cycle

Climate change affects forest growth in numerous and sometimes opposite ways, and the resulting trend is often difficult to predict for a given site. Integrating and structuring the knowledge gained from the monitoring and experimental studies into process-based models is an interesting approach to predict the response of forest ecosystems to climate change. While the first generation of models operates at stand level, one now needs spatially explicit individual-based approaches in order to account for individual variability, local environment modification and tree adaptive behaviour in mixed and uneven-Aged forests that are supposed to be more resilient under stressful conditions. The local environment of a tree is strongly influenced by the neighbouring trees, which modify the resource level through positive and negative interactions with the target tree. Among other things, drought stress and vegetation period length vary with tree size and crown position within the canopy. In this paper, we describe the phenology and water balance modules integrated in the tree growth model HETEROFOR (HETEROgenous FORest) and evaluate them on six heterogeneous sessile oak and European beech stands with different levels of mixing and development stages and installed on various soil types. More precisely, we assess the ability of the model to reproduce key phenological processes (budburst, leaf development, yellowing and fall) as well as water fluxes. Two two-phase models differing regarding their response function to temperature during the chilling period (optimum and sigmoid functions) and a simplified one-phase model are. used to predict budburst date. The two-phase model with the optimum function is the least biased (overestimation of 2.46 d), while the one-phase model best accounts for the interannual variability (Pearson's r D 0:68). For the leaf development, yellowing and fall, predictions and observations are in accordance. Regarding the water balance module, the predicted throughfall is also in close agreement with the measurements (Pearson's r D 0:856; biasD 1:3 %), and the soil water dynamics across the year are well reproduced for all the study sites (Pearson's r was between 0.893 and 0.950, and bias was between 1:81 and 9:33 %). The model also reproduced well the individual transpiration for sessile oak and European beech, with similar performances at the tree and stand scale (Pearson's r of 0.84 0.85 for sessile oak and 0.88 0.89 for European beech). The good results of the model assessment will allow us to use it reliably in projection studies to evaluate the impact of climate change on tree growth in structurally complex stands and test various management strategies to improve forest resilience. © 2020 Author(s)

Maladaptive Habitat Selection of a Migratory Passerine Bird in a Human-Modified Landscape

In human-altered environments, organisms may preferentially settle in poor-quality habitats where fitness returns are lower relative to available higher-quality habitats. Such ecological trapping is due to a mismatch between the cues used during habitat selection and the habitat quality. Maladaptive settlement decisions may occur when organisms are time-constrained and have to rapidly evaluate habitat quality based on incomplete knowledge of the resources and conditions that will be available later in the season. During a three-year study, we examined settlement decision-making in the long-distance migratory, open-habitat bird, the Red-backed shrike (Lanius collurio), as a response to recent land-use changes. In Northwest Europe, the shrikes typically breed in open areas under a management regime of extensive farming. In recent decades, Spruce forests have been increasingly managed with large-size cutblocks in even-aged plantations, thereby producing early-successional vegetation areas that are also colonised by the species. Farmland and open areas in forests create mosaics of two different types of habitats that are now occupied by the shrikes. We examined redundant measures of habitat preference (order of settlement after migration and distribution of dominant individuals) and several reproductive performance parameters in both habitat types to investigate whether habitat preference is in line with habitat quality. Territorial males exhibited a clear preference for the recently created open areas in forests with higher-quality males settling in this habitat type earlier. Reproductive performance was, however, higher in farmland, with higher nest success, offspring quantity, and quality compared to open areas in forests. The results showed strong among-year consistency and we can therefore exclude a transient situation. This study demonstrates a case of maladaptive habitat selection in a farmland bird expanding its breeding range to human-created open habitats in plantations. We discuss the reasons that could explain this decision-making and the possible consequences for the population dynamics and persistence

Lysyl hydroxylase 3 localizes to epidermal basement membrane and Is reduced in patients with Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa

Recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB) is caused by mutations in COL7A1 resulting in reduced or absent type VII collagen, aberrant anchoring fibril formation and subsequent dermal-epidermal fragility. Here, we identify a significant decrease in PLOD3 expression and its encoded protein, the collagen modifying enzyme lysyl hydroxylase 3 (LH3), in RDEB. We show abundant LH3 localising to the basement membrane in normal skin which is severely depleted in RDEB patient skin. We demonstrate expression is in-part regulated by endogenous type VII collagen and that, in agreement with previous studies, even small reductions in LH3 expression lead to significantly less secreted LH3 protein. Exogenous type VII collagen did not alter LH3 expression in cultured RDEB keratinocytes and we show that RDEB patients receiving bone marrow transplantation who demonstrate significant increase in type VII collagen do not show increased levels of LH3 at the basement membrane. Our data report a direct link between LH3 and endogenous type VII collagen expression concluding that reduction of LH3 at the basement membrane in patients with RDEB will likely have significant implications for disease progression and therapeutic intervention

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios

Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios