Sensitivity of discharge and flood frequency to twenty-first century and late Holocene changes in climate and land use (River Meuse, northwest Europe)

We used a calibrated coupled climate–hydrological model to simulate Meuse discharge over the late Holocene (4000–3000 BP and 1000–2000 AD). We then used this model to simulate discharge in the twenty-first century under SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1, with and without future land use change. Mean discharge and medium-sized high-flow (e.g. Q99) frequency are higher in 1000–2000 AD than in 4000–3000 BP; almost all of this increase can be attributed to the conversion of forest to agriculture. In the twentieth century, mean discharge and the frequency of medium-sized high-flow events are higher than in the nineteenth century; this increase can be attributed to increased (winter half-year) precipitation. Between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, anthropogenic climate change causes a further increase in discharge and medium-sized high-flow frequency; this increase is of a similar order of magnitude to the changes over the last 4,000 years. The magnitude of extreme flood events (return period 1,250-years) is higher in the twenty-first century than in any preceding period of the time-slices studied. In contrast to the long-term influence of deforestation on mean discharge, changes in forest cover have had little effect on these extreme floods, even on the millennial timescale

The Holocene thermal maximum in the Nordic Seas: the impact of Greenland Ice Sheet melt and other forcings in a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean model

The relatively warm early Holocene climate in the Nordic Seas, known as the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), is often associated with an orbitally forced summer insolation maximum at 10 ka BP. The spatial and temporal response recorded in proxy data in the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas reveal a complex interaction of mechanisms active in the HTM. Previous studies have investigated the impact of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), as a remnant from a previous glacial period, altering climate conditions with a continuous supply of melt water to the Labrador Sea and adjacent seas and with a downwind cooling effect from the remnant LIS. In our present work we extend this approach by investigating the impact of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) on the early Holocene climate and the HTM. Reconstructions suggest melt rates of 13 mSv for 9 ka BP, which result in our model in a ocean surface cooling of up to 2 K near Greenland. Reconstructed summer SST gradients agree best with our simulation including GIS melt, confirming that the impact of early Holocene GIS is crucial for understanding the HTM characteristics in the Nordic Seas area. This implies that the modern and near-future GIS melt can be expected to play an active role in the climate system in the centuries to come

The impact of early Holocene Arctic Shelf flooding on climate in an atmosphere–ocean–sea–ice model

Glacial terminations are characterized by a strong rise in sea level related to melting ice sheets. This rise in sea level is not uniform all over the world, because regional effects (uplift and subsidence of coastal zones) are superimposed on global trends. During the early Holocene the Siberian Shelf became flooded before 7.5 ka BP and the coastline reached modern-day high stands at 5 ka BP. This area is currently known as a sea-ice production area and contributes significantly to the sea-ice exported from the Arctic through the Fram Strait. This leads to the following hypothesis: during times of rising sea levels, shelves become flooded, increasing sea-ice production on these shelves, increasing sea-ice volume and export through the Fram Strait and causing the sea-ice extent to advance in the Nordic Seas, yielding cooler and fresher sea surface conditions. We have tested this hypothesis in an atmosphere–ocean–sea–ice coupled model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM). Our experiment on early Holocene Siberian Shelf flooding shows that in our model sea-ice production in the Northern Hemisphere increases (15%) and that sea-ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere increases (14%) but sea-ice export decreases (−15%) contrary to our hypothesis. The reason of this unexpected behaviour has its origin in a weakened polar vortex, induced by the land–ocean changes due to the shelf flooding, and a resulting decrease of zonality in the Nordic Seas pressure regime. Hence the winter Greenland high and the Icelandic low strengthen, yielding stronger winds on both sides of the Nordic Seas. Increased winds along the East Greenland Current support local sea-ice production and transport towards the South, resulting in a wider sea-ice cover and a southward shift of convection areas. The overall strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced by 4% and the heat transport in the Atlantic basin by 7%, resulting in an annual cooling pattern over the Nordic Seas by up to −4 °C. We find that the flooding of the Siberian shelf resulting from an orbitally induced warming and related glacioeustatic sea level rise causes a Nordic Seas cooling feedback opposed to this warming

Coupled climate model simulation of Holocene cooling events: oceanic feedback amplifies solar forcing

The coupled global atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE is used to perform transient simulations of the last 9000 years, forced by variations in orbital parameters, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and total solar irradiance (TSI). The objective is to study the impact of decadal-to-centennial scale TSI variations on Holocene climate variability. The simulations show that negative TSI anomalies increase the probability of temporary relocations of the site with deepwater formation in the Nordic Seas, causing an expansion of sea ice that produces additional cooling. The consequence is a characteristic climatic anomaly pattern with cooling over most of the North Atlantic region that is consistent with proxy evidence for Holocene cold phases. Our results thus suggest that the ocean is able to play an important role in amplifying centennial-scale climate variability

Holocene climate instability during the termination of the African Humid Period

The termination of the Holocene African Humid Period (similar to9 to similar to6 kyr BP) is simulated with a three-dimensional global coupled climate model that resolves synoptic variability associated with weather patterns. In the simulation, the potential for "green'' and "desert'' Sahara states becomes equal between 7.5 and 5.5 thousand years ago, causing the climate system to fluctuate between these states at decadal-to-centennial time-scales. This model result is supported by paleoevidence from the Western Sahara region, showing similar paleohydrological fluctuations around that time. For the present-day, only the desert Sahara state is stable in the model

Sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate to Greenland Ice Sheet melting during the Last Interglacial

During the Last Interglacial (LIG; ~130 000 yr BP), part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melted due to a warmer than present-day climate. However, the impact of this melting on the LIG climate in the North Atlantic region is relatively unknown. Using the LOVECLIM Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we have systematically tested the sensitivity of the LIG climate to increased freshwater runoff from the GIS. In addition, experiments have been performed to investigate the impact of an idealized reduction of both surface elevation and extent of the GIS on the LIG climate. Based on changes in the maximum sea-ice cover and the strength of the overturning circulation, three regimes have been identified, which are characterized by a specific pattern of surface temperature change in the North Atlantic region. By comparing the simulated deep ocean circulation with proxy-based reconstructions, the most realistic simulated climate could be discerned. The resulting climate is characterized by a shutdown of deep convection and a subsequent ~4 °C cooling in the Labrador Sea. Furthermore, a cooling of ~1 °C over the North Atlantic Ocean between 40° N and 70° N is seen. The prescribed reduction in surface elevation and extent of the GIS results in a local warming of up to 4 °C and amplifies the freshwater-forced reduction in deep convection and the resultant cooling in the Nordic Seas. A further comparison of simulated summer temperatures with both continental and oceanic proxy records reveals that the partial melting of the GIS during the LIG could have delayed maximum summer temperatures in the western part of the North Atlantic region relative to the insolation maximum

Holocene climate instability during the termination of the African Humid Period.

[1] The termination of the Holocene African Humid Period (similar to9 to similar to6 kyr BP) is simulated with a three-dimensional global coupled climate model that resolves synoptic variability associated with weather patterns. In the simulation, the potential for "green'' and "desert'' Sahara states becomes equal between 7.5 and 5.5 thousand years ago, causing the climate system to fluctuate between these states at decadal-to-centennial time-scales. This model result is supported by paleoevidence from the Western Sahara region, showing similar paleohydrological fluctuations around that time. For the present-day, only the desert Sahara state is stable in the model

How did Marine Isotope Stage 3 and Last Glacial Maximum climates differ? Perspectives from equilibrium simulations

Dansgaard-Oeschger events occurred frequently during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3), as opposed to the following MIS2 period, which included the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Transient climate model simulations suggest that these abrupt warming events in Greenland and the North Atlantic region are associated with a resumption of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) from a weak state during stadials to a relatively strong state during interstadials. However, those models were run with LGM, rather than MIS3 boundary conditions. To quantify the influence of different boundary conditions on the climates of MIS3 and LGM, we perform two equilibrium climate simulations with the three-dimensional earth system model LOVECLIM, one for stadial, the other for interstadial conditions. We compare them to the LGM state simulated with the same model. Both climate states are globally 2°C warmer than LGM. A striking feature of our MIS3 simulations is the enhanced Northern Hemisphere seasonality, July surface air temperatures being 4°C warmer than in LGM. Also, despite some modification in the location of North Atlantic deep water formation, deep water export to the South Atlantic remains unaffected. To study specifically the effect of orbital forcing, we perform two additional sensitivity experiments spun up from our stadial simulation. The insolation difference between MIS3 and LGM causes half of the 30–60° N July temperature anomaly (+6°C). In a third simulation additional freshwater forcing halts the Atlantic THC, yielding a much colder North Atlantic region (−7°C). Comparing our simulation with proxy data, we find that the MIS3 climate with collapsed THC mimics stadials over the North Atlantic better than both control experiments, which might crudely estimate interstadial climate. These results suggest that freshwater forcing is necessary to return climate from warm interstadials to cold stadials during MIS3. This changes our perspective, making the stadial climate a perturbed climate state rather than a typical, near-equilibrium MIS3 climate