169 research outputs found
Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine
In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major part (~ three-quarters) can be accounted for by climate change. The highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands (110 billion €), compared with the second (80 billion €) and third (62 billion €) highest values in two areas in Germany. Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany
Use of Self-Selected Postures to Regulate Multi-Joint Stiffness During Unconstrained Tasks
The human motor system is highly redundant, having more kinematic degrees of freedom than necessary to complete a given task. Understanding how kinematic redundancies are utilized in different tasks remains a fundamental question in motor control. One possibility is that they can be used to tune the mechanical properties of a limb to the specific requirements of a task. For example, many tasks such as tool usage compromise arm stability along specific directions. These tasks only can be completed if the nervous system adapts the mechanical properties of the arm such that the arm, coupled to the tool, remains stable. The purpose of this study was to determine if posture selection is a critical component of endpoint stiffness regulation during unconstrained tasks.Three-dimensional (3D) estimates of endpoint stiffness were used to quantify limb mechanics. Most previous studies examining endpoint stiffness adaptation were completed in 2D using constrained postures to maintain a non-redundant mapping between joint angles and hand location. Our hypothesis was that during unconstrained conditions, subjects would select arm postures that matched endpoint stiffness to the functional requirements of the task. The hypothesis was tested during endpoint tracking tasks in which subjects interacted with unstable haptic environments, simulated using a 3D robotic manipulator. We found that arm posture had a significant effect on endpoint tracking accuracy and that subjects selected postures that improved tracking performance. For environments in which arm posture had a large effect on tracking accuracy, the self-selected postures oriented the direction of maximal endpoint stiffness towards the direction of the unstable haptic environment.These results demonstrate how changes in arm posture can have a dramatic effect on task performance and suggest that postural selection is a fundamental mechanism by which kinematic redundancies can be exploited to regulate arm stiffness in unconstrained tasks
Tales of future weather
Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This 'tales of future weather' approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like
Molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying the evolution of form and function in the amniote jaw.
The amniote jaw complex is a remarkable amalgamation of derivatives from distinct embryonic cell lineages. During development, the cells in these lineages experience concerted movements, migrations, and signaling interactions that take them from their initial origins to their final destinations and imbue their derivatives with aspects of form including their axial orientation, anatomical identity, size, and shape. Perturbations along the way can produce defects and disease, but also generate the variation necessary for jaw evolution and adaptation. We focus on molecular and cellular mechanisms that regulate form in the amniote jaw complex, and that enable structural and functional integration. Special emphasis is placed on the role of cranial neural crest mesenchyme (NCM) during the species-specific patterning of bone, cartilage, tendon, muscle, and other jaw tissues. We also address the effects of biomechanical forces during jaw development and discuss ways in which certain molecular and cellular responses add adaptive and evolutionary plasticity to jaw morphology. Overall, we highlight how variation in molecular and cellular programs can promote the phenomenal diversity and functional morphology achieved during amniote jaw evolution or lead to the range of jaw defects and disease that affect the human condition
Adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder is associated with migraine headaches
Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is now recognized as a common disorder both in child and adult psychiatry. Adult patients with a diagnosis of ADHD (n = 572) and community controls (n = 675) responded to auto-questionnaires rating past and present symptoms of ADHD, co-morbid conditions, including migraine, treatment history and work status. The prevalence of migraine was significantly higher in the patient group compared to the controls (28.3% vs. 19.2%, P < 0.001, OR = 1.67, CI 1.28–2.17). The difference from controls was particularly marked for men (22.5% vs. 10.7%, P < 0.001, OR = 2.43, CI 1.51–3.90) but was also significant for women (34.4% vs. 24.9%, P = 0.008, OR = 1.58, CI 1.13–2.21). In both patients and controls, migraine was associated with symptoms of mood and anxiety disorders. These findings point to a co-morbidity of migraine with ADHD, and it is possible that these patients represent a clinical and biological subgroup of adult patients with ADHD
Heavy and light roles: myosin in the morphogenesis of the heart
Myosin is an essential component of cardiac muscle, from the onset of cardiogenesis through to the adult heart. Although traditionally known for its role in energy transduction and force development, recent studies
suggest that both myosin heavy-chain and myosin lightchain
proteins are required for a correctly formed heart.
Myosins are structural proteins that are not only expressed
from early stages of heart development, but when mutated
in humans they may give rise to congenital heart defects.
This review will discuss the roles of myosin, specifically
with regards to the developing heart. The expression of
each myosin protein will be described, and the effects that
altering expression has on the heart in embryogenesis in
different animal models will be discussed. The human
molecular genetics of the myosins will also be reviewed
A media framing analysis of urban flooding in Nigeria: current narratives and implications for policy
© 2017, The Author(s). A critical element of current flood management is the importance of engaging key policy actors when policy decisions are to be made. However, there is still only limited understanding of how narratives of flood management actors may influence flood management policies, even though there is a suggestion that actors can strategically use their narratives to influence policy directions. In a developing country like Nigeria, there are still questions around lessons that can be learnt from understanding the narratives of policy actors, to unravel the complex nature of strategies and policy directions in managing urban floods. To help fill these gaps, this paper uses quantitative content analysis to explore the frame of five policy actor groups (government, local communities, business, multilateral organisations and non-governmental organisations (NGOs)) as expressed in local and national newspapers between 2012 and 2016 to understand their narratives of causes and strategies to solve the problem of urban flooding in Nigeria. The narratives of government, local communities and businesses align with the premise that flooding can and should be prevented whilst that of multilateral and business actors champion adaptation strategies on the basis that flooding is inevitable and hence more energy should be directed at ‘living with water’—emergency response, damage reduction and the aftermath. The study also identified areas of potential consensus and conflict between direct actors such as government and local communities on the one hand and funders on the other. Better discussion among actors aiding understanding of contemporary thinking and local realities will aid policy-making and policy implementation in the Nigerian context. An important step will be in the collaborative design of an urgently needed ‘Nigerian policy on flooding’ which currently does not exist
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