Numerical Investigation of Pyrolysis Gas Blowing Pattern and Thermal Response using Orthotropic Charring Ablative Material

An orthotropic material model is implemented in a three-dimensional material response code, and numerically studied for charring ablative material. Model comparison is performed using an iso-Q sample geometry. The comparison is presented using pyrolysis gas streamlines and time series of temperature at selected virtual thermocouples. Results show that orthotropic permeability affects both pyrolysis gas flow and thermal response, but orthotropic thermal conductivity essentially changes the thermal performance of the material. The effect of orthotropic properties may have practical use such that the material performance can be manipulated by altering the angle of orthotropic orientation

Cost-effectiveness of medically assisted reproduction or expectant management for unexplained subfertility:when to start treatment?

STUDY QUESTION Over a time period of 3 years, which order of expectant management (EM), IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) and IVF is the most cost-effective for couples with unexplained subfertility with the female age below 38 years? SUMMARY ANSWER If a live birth is considered worth Euro32 000 or less, 2 years of EM followed by IVF was the most cost-effective, whereas above Euro32 000 this was 1 year of EM, 1 year of IUI-OS and then 1 year of IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY IUI-OS and IVF are commonly used fertility treatments for unexplained subfertility although many couples can conceive naturally, as no identifiable barrier to conception could be found by definition. Few countries have guidelines on when to proceed with medically assisted reproduction (MAR), mostly based on the expected probability of live birth after treatment, but there is a lack of evidence to support the strategies proposed by these guidelines. The increased uptake of IUI-OS and IVF over the past decades and costs related to reimbursement of these treatments are pressing concerns to health service providers. For MAR to remain affordable, sustainable and a responsible use of public funds, guidance is needed on the cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies for unexplained subfertility, including EM. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION We developed a decision analytic Markov model that follows couples with unexplained subfertility of which the woman is under 38 years of age for a time period of 3 years from completion of the fertility workup onwards. We divided the time axis of 3 years into three separate periods, each comprising 1 year. The model was based on contemporary evidence, most notably the dynamic prediction model for natural conception, which was combined with MAR treatment effects from a network meta-analysis on randomized controlled trials. We changed the order of options for managing unexplained subfertility for the 1 year periods to yield five different treatment policies in total: IVF-EM-EM (immediate IVF), EM-IVF-EM (delayed IVF), EM-EM-IVF (postponed IVF), IUIOS-IVF-EM (immediate IUI-OS) and EM-IUIOS-IVF (delayed IUI-OS). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The main outcomes per policy over the 3-year period were the probability of live birth, the average treatment and delivery costs, the probability of multiple pregnancy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and finally, which policy yields the highest net benefit in which costs for a policy were deducted from the health effects, i.e. live births gained. We chose the Dutch societal perspective, but the model can be easily modified for other locations or other perspectives. The probability of live birth after EM was taken from the dynamic prediction model for natural conception and updated for Years 2 and 3. The relative effects of IUI-OS and IVF in terms of odds ratios, taken from the network meta-analysis, were applied to the probability of live birth after EM. We applied standard discounting procedures for economic analyses for Years 2 and 3. The uncertainty around effectiveness, costs and other parameters was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis in which we drew values from distributions and repeated this procedure 20 000 times. In addition, we changed model assumptions to assess their influence on our results. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE From IVF-EM-EM to EM-IUIOS-IVF, the probability of live birth varied from approximately 54-64% and the average costs from approximately Euro4000 to Euro9000. The policies IVF-EM-EM and EM-IVF-EM were dominated by EM-EM-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. The policy IUIOS-IVF-EM was dominated by EM-IUIOS-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. After removal of policies that were dominated, the ICER for EM-IUIOS-IVF was approximately Euro31 000 compared to EM-EM-IVF. The range of ICER values between the lowest 25% and highest 75% of simulation replications was broad. The net benefit curve showed that when we assume a live birth to be worth approximately Euro20 000 or less, the policy EM-EM-IVF had the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit. Between Euro20 000 and Euro50 000 monetary value per live birth, it was uncertain whether EM-EM-IVF was better than EM-IUIOS-IVF, with the turning point of Euro32 000. When we assume a monetary value per live birth over Euro50 000, the policy with the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit was EM-IUIOS-IVF. Results for subgroups with different baseline prognoses showed the same policies dominated and the same two policies that were the most likely to achieve the highest net benefit but at different threshold values for the assumed monetary value per live birth. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Our model focused on population level and was thus based on average costs for the average number of cycles conducted. We also based the model on a number of key assumptions. We changed model assumptions to assess the influence of these assumptions on our results. The change in relative effectiveness of IVF over time was found to be highly influential on results and their interpretation. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS EM-EM-IVF and EM-IUIOS-IVF followed by IVF were the most cost-effective policies. The choice depends on the monetary value assigned to a live birth. The results of our study can be used in discussions between clinicians, couples and policy makers to decide on a sustainable treatment protocol based on the probability of live birth, the costs and the limitations of MAR treatment. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was supported by the ZonMw Doelmatigheidsonderzoek (80-85200-98-91072). The funder had no role in the design, conduct or reporting of this work. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck KGaA and Guerbet and travel and research support from ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER N/A

Numerical analysis of piled embankments on soft soils

The construction of embankments on soft soils is a common problem. Soft soil cannot sustain external loads without having large deformations. Piled embankments system provides a possible solution for the construction of roads and railways over soft soils. Until now, the system behaviour could only be described by analytical models such as those included in British or German codes. This paper describes research undertaken to investigate the effects of pile embankment construction in soft soils. Experimental results are used to help investigate arching effect developed due to differential settlement between pile and surrounding soft soil. A numerical parametric study was carried out to examine the impact of various soil parameters on the pile-embankment system behaviour. The outcome of the parametric study implemented using numerical analysis has been investigated and discussed throughout this paper. Based on the numerical analysis carried out in this research, it was found that the earth pressure coefficient normalized by the passive earth pressure Kp plotted on a vertical profile at the midpoint between piles can give a good illustration of arching behaviour. The findings presented in this paper can be considered as guides for numerical analysis and design criteria of soil arching for embankments constructed over piles

Tell me what you want, what you really really want: Estimands in observational pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness and safety studies

PURPOSE: Ideally, the objectives of a pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness or safety study should dictate its design and data analysis. This paper discusses how defining an estimand is instrumental to this process. METHODS: We applied the ICH-E9 (Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials) R1 addendum on estimands - which originally focused on randomized trials - to three examples of observational pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness and safety studies. Five key elements specify the estimand: the population, contrasted treatments, endpoint, intercurrent events, and population-level summary measure. RESULTS: Different estimands were defined for case studies representing three types of pharmacological treatments: (1) single-dose treatments using a case study about the effect of influenza vaccination versus no vaccination on mortality risk in an adult population of ≥60 years of age; (2) sustained-treatments using a case study about the effect of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor versus glucagon-like peptide-1 agonist on hypoglycemia risk in treatment of uncontrolled diabetes; and (3) as needed treatments using a case study on the effect of nitroglycerin spray as-needed versus no nitroglycerin on syncope risk in treatment of stabile angina pectoris. CONCLUSIONS: The case studies illustrated that a seemingly clear research question can still be open to multiple interpretations. Defining an estimand ensures that the study targets a treatment effect that aligns with the treatment decision the study aims to inform. Estimand definitions further help to inform choices regarding study design and data-analysis and clarify how to interpret study findings

Cost-effectiveness of medically assisted reproduction or expectant management for unexplained subfertility: when to start treatment?

STUDY QUESTION Over a time period of 3 years, which order of expectant management (EM), IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) and IVF is the most cost-effective for couples with unexplained subfertility with the female age below 38 years? SUMMARY ANSWER If a live birth is considered worth €32 000 or less, 2 years of EM followed by IVF was the most cost-effective, whereas above €32 000 this was 1 year of EM, 1 year of IUI-OS and then 1 year of IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY IUI-OS and IVF are commonly used fertility treatments for unexplained subfertility although many couples can conceive naturally, as no identifiable barrier to conception could be found by definition. Few countries have guidelines on when to proceed with medically assisted reproduction (MAR), mostly based on the expected probability of live birth after treatment, but there is a lack of evidence to support the strategies proposed by these guidelines. The increased uptake of IUI-OS and IVF over the past decades and costs related to reimbursement of these treatments are pressing concerns to health service providers. For MAR to remain affordable, sustainable and a responsible use of public funds, guidance is needed on the cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies for unexplained subfertility, including EM. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION We developed a decision analytic Markov model that follows couples with unexplained subfertility of which the woman is under 38 years of age for a time period of 3 years from completion of the fertility workup onwards. We divided the time axis of 3 years into three separate periods, each comprising 1 year. The model was based on contemporary evidence, most notably the dynamic prediction model for natural conception, which was combined with MAR treatment effects from a network meta-analysis on randomized controlled trials. We changed the order of options for managing unexplained subfertility for the 1 year periods to yield five different treatment policies in total: IVF-EM-EM (immediate IVF), EM-IVF-EM (delayed IVF), EM-EM-IVF (postponed IVF), IUIOS-IVF-EM (immediate IUI-OS) and EM-IUIOS-IVF (delayed IUI-OS). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The main outcomes per policy over the 3-year period were the probability of live birth, the average treatment and delivery costs, the probability of multiple pregnancy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and finally, which policy yields the highest net benefit in which costs for a policy were deducted from the health effects, i.e. live births gained. We chose the Dutch societal perspective, but the model can be easily modified for other locations or other perspectives. The probability of live birth after EM was taken from the dynamic prediction model for natural conception and updated for Years 2 and 3. The relative effects of IUI-OS and IVF in terms of odds ratios, taken from the network meta-analysis, were applied to the probability of live birth after EM. We applied standard discounting procedures for economic analyses for Years 2 and 3. The uncertainty around effectiveness, costs and other parameters was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis in which we drew values from distributions and repeated this procedure 20 000 times. In addition, we changed model assumptions to assess their influence on our results. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE From IVF-EM-EM to EM-IUIOS-IVF, the probability of live birth varied from approximately 54–64% and the average costs from approximately €4000 to €9000. The policies IVF-EM-EM and EM-IVF-EM were dominated by EM-EM-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. The policy IUIOS-IVF-EM was dominated by EM-IUIOS-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. After removal of policies that were dominated, the ICER for EM-IUIOS-IVF was approximately €31 000 compared to EM-EM-IVF. The range of ICER values between the lowest 25% and highest 75% of simulation replications was broad. The net benefit curve showed that when we assume a live birth to be worth approximately €20 000 or less, the policy EM-EM-IVF had the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit. Between €20 000 and €50 000 monetary value per live birth, it was uncertain whether EM-EM-IVF was better than EM-IUIOS-IVF, with the turning point of €32 000. When we assume a monetary value per live birth over €50 000, the policy with the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit was EM-IUIOS-IVF. Results for subgroups with different baseline prognoses showed the same policies dominated and the same two policies that were the most likely to achieve the highest net benefit but at different threshold values for the assumed monetary value per live birth. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Our model focused on population level and was thus based on average costs for the average number of cycles conducted. We also based the model on a number of key assumptions. We changed model assumptions to assess the influence of these assumptions on our results. The change in relative effectiveness of IVF over time was found to be highly influential on results and their interpretation. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS EM-EM-IVF and EM-IUIOS-IVF followed by IVF were the most cost-effective policies. The choice depends on the monetary value assigned to a live birth. The results of our study can be used in discussions between clinicians, couples and policy makers to decide on a sustainable treatment protocol based on the probability of live birth, the costs and the limitations of MAR treatment. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was supported by the ZonMw Doelmatigheidsonderzoek (80-85200-98-91072). The funder had no role in the design, conduct or reporting of this work. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck KGaA and Guerbet and travel and research support from ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER N/A.R van Eekelen, M J Eijkemans, M Mochtar, F Mol, B W Mol, H Groen, M van Wel

Prenatal stress and risk of behavioral morbidity from age 2 to 14 years: The influence of the number, type, and timing of stressful life events

The maternal experience of stressful events during pregnancy has been associated with a number of adverse consequences for behavioral development in offspring, but the measurement and interpretation of prenatal stress varies among reported studies. The Raine Study recruited 2900 pregnancies and recorded life stress events experienced by 18 and 34 weeks’ gestation along with numerous sociodemographic data. The mother’s exposure to life stress events was further documented when the children were followed-up in conjunction with behavioral assessments at ages 2, 5, 8, 10, and 14 years using the Child Behavior Checklist. The maternal experience of multiple stressful events during pregnancy was associated with subsequent behavioral problems for offspring. Independent (e.g., death of a relative, job loss) and dependent stress events (e.g., financial problems, marital problems) were both significantly associated with a greater incidence of mental health morbidity between age 2 and 14 years. Exposure to stressful events in the first 18 weeks of pregnancy showed similar associations with subsequent total and externalizing morbidity to events reported at 34 weeks of gestation. These results were independent of postnatal stress exposure. Improved support for women with chronic stress exposure during pregnancy may improve the mental health of their offspring in later life

Identification and Expression of the Family of Classical Protein-Tyrosine Phosphatases in Zebrafish

Protein-tyrosine phosphatases (PTPs) have an important role in cell survival, differentiation, proliferation, migration and other cellular processes in conjunction with protein-tyrosine kinases. Still relatively little is known about the function of PTPs in vivo. We set out to systematically identify all classical PTPs in the zebrafish genome and characterize their expression patterns during zebrafish development. We identified 48 PTP genes in the zebrafish genome by BLASTing of human PTP sequences. We verified all in silico hits by sequencing and established the spatio-temporal expression patterns of all PTPs by in situ hybridization of zebrafish embryos at six distinct developmental stages. The zebrafish genome encodes 48 PTP genes. 14 human orthologs are duplicated in the zebrafish genome and 3 human orthologs were not identified. Based on sequence conservation, most zebrafish orthologues of human PTP genes were readily assigned. Interestingly, the duplicated form of ptpn23, a catalytically inactive PTP, has lost its PTP domain, indicating that PTP activity is not required for its function, or that ptpn23b has lost its PTP domain in the course of evolution. All 48 PTPs are expressed in zebrafish embryos. Most PTPs are maternally provided and are broadly expressed early on. PTP expression becomes progressively restricted during development. Interestingly, some duplicated genes retained their expression pattern, whereas expression of other duplicated genes was distinct or even mutually exclusive, suggesting that the function of the latter PTPs has diverged. In conclusion, we have identified all members of the family of classical PTPs in the zebrafish genome and established their expression patterns. This is the first time the expression patterns of all members of the large family of PTP genes have been established in a vertebrate. Our results provide the first step towards elucidation of the function of the family of classical PTPs

Epigenetic mapping of the metabolome reveals mediators of the epigenotype-phenotype map

Identifying the sources of natural variation underlying metabolic differences between plants will enable a better understanding of plant metabolism and provide insights into the regulatory networks that govern plant growth and morphology. So far, however, the contribution of epigenetic variation to metabolic diversity has been largely ignored. In the present study, we utilized a panel of Arabidopsis thaliana epigenetic recombinant inbred lines (epiRILs) to assess the impact of epigenetic variation on the metabolic composition. Thirty epigenetic QTL (QTLepi) were detected, which partly overlap with QTLepi linked to growth and morphology. In an effort to identify causal candidate genes in the QTLepi regions and their putative trans-targets, we performed in silico small RNA and qPCR analyses. Differentially expressed genes were further studied by phenotypic and metabolic analyses of knockout mutants. Three genes were detected that recapitulated the detected QTLepi effects, providing evidence for epigenetic regulation in cis and in trans These results indicate that epigenetic mechanisms impact metabolic diversity, possibly via small RNAs, and thus aid in further disentangling the complex epigenotype-phenotype map