Electron loss rates from the outer radiation belt caused by the filling of the outer plasmasphere: The calm before the storm

Measurements from seven spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit are analyzed to determine the decay rate of the number density of the outer electron radiation belt prior to the onset of high-speed-stream-driven geomagnetic storms. Superposed-data analysis is used with a collection of 124 storms. When there is a calm before the storm, the electron number density decays exponentially before the storm with a 3.4-day e-folding time: beginning about 4 days before storm onset, the density decreases from ∼4 × 10−4 cm−3 to ∼1 × 10−4 cm−3. When there is not a calm before the storm, the number density decay is very small. The decay in the number density of radiation belt electrons is believed to be caused by pitch angle scattering of electrons into the atmospheric loss cone as the outer plasmasphere fills during the calms. This is confirmed by separately measuring the density decay rate for times when the outer plasmasphere is present or absent. While the radiation belt electron density decreases, the temperature of the electron radiation belt holds approximately constant, indicating that the electron precipitation occurs equally at all energies. Along with the number density decay, the pressure of the outer electron radiation belt decays, and the specific entropy increases. From the measured decay rates, the electron flux to the atmosphere is calculated, and that flux is 3 orders of magnitude less than thermal fluxes in the magnetosphere, indicating that the radiation belt pitch angle scattering is 3 orders weaker than strong diffusion. Energy fluxes into the atmosphere are calculated and found to be insufficient to produce visible airglow

MEDS-D Users' Manual

This report is the Users' Manual that accompanies MEDS-D, the demographic component of a new Windows-based version of the MEDS (Models of the Economic-Demographic System) software. MEDS-D is designed for projecting the population, labour force, and number of households for Canada as a whole, for each of the provinces, and for the territories. The projections are made year-by-year, and extend as far as 2051. The time path of projections is determined by assumptions about fertility, mortality, international and interprovincial migration, household formation, labour force participation and unemployment. "Standard", "high growth", and "slow growth" projections are provided. It is easy to explore the implications of alternative assumptions and to input newly available data.population, labour force, projection

Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force

The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust", have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual projections, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different if there had been no baby boom or no bust, or if the bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future, population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective "dependency burden".fertility; population; labour force; dependency ratio

Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Poulation and Labour Force

The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust", have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual projections, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different if there had been no baby boom or no bust, or if the bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future, population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective "dependency burden".fertility; population; labour force; dependency ratio

Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee- Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning.mortality; life expectancy; stochastic forecasting

Projections of the Population and Labour Force to 2046: The Provinces and Territories

This report makes available projections of the population and labour force of each of the provinces and territories of Canada. The projections extend to 2046, and are based on information that is up-to-date at the time of release. The report provides an indication of the capabilities of the MEDS software on which the projections are based.population; labour force; projection

An Application of Price and Quantity Indexes in the Analysis of Changes in Expenditures on Physician Services

Price and quantity indexes are applied in the analysis of expenditure on physician services in the province of Ontario, Canada, using newly available data files for 1992 and 2004. Price indexes for such services are found to have increased less rapidly than indexes of general inflation and quantity indexes are found to account for the largest share of physician expenditure increases. The quantity indexes imply substantial gains in services per capita, especially for older adults. They imply also an increase in labour productivity for physicians that is somewhat greater than the corresponding increase for the economy at large.physician services; price and quantity indexes

Effective Electrostatic Interactions in Suspensions of Polyelectrolyte Brush-Coated Colloids

Effective electrostatic interactions between colloidal particles, coated with polyelectrolyte brushes and suspended in an electrolyte solvent, are described via linear response theory. The inner cores of the macroions are modeled as hard spheres, the outer brushes as spherical shells of continuously distributed charge, the microions (counterions and salt ions) as point charges, and the solvent as a dielectric continuum. The multi-component mixture of macroions and microions is formally mapped onto an equivalent one-component suspension by integrating out from the partition function the microion degrees of freedom. Applying second-order perturbation theory and a random phase approximation, analytical expressions are derived for the effective pair interaction and a one-body volume energy, which is a natural by-product of the one-component reduction. The combination of an inner core and an outer shell, respectively impenetrable and penetrable to microions, allows the interactions between macroions to be tuned by varying the core diameter and brush thickness. In the limiting cases of vanishing core diameter and vanishing shell thickness, the interactions reduce to those derived previously for star polyelectrolytes and charged colloids, respectively.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures, Phys. Rev. E (in press

MEDS-E Users' Manual

This report is the Users' Manual that accompanies MEDS-E, the economic component of a new Windows-based version of the MEDS (Models of the Economic-Demographic System) software. MEDS-E is designed to make use of the all-Canada population and labour force projections from MEDS-D in projecting various Canadian macro-economic aggregates. The projections, which are made year-to-year, extend as far as 2051. The time paths of the economic projections are determined by the population and labour inputs, type of aggregate production function chosen, rates of depreciation, and investment, consumption, and other parameters. A set of "standard" assumptions is provided, but users can change those assumptions.macroeconomic projections, economic-demographic system

Immigration, Labour Force, and the Age Structure of the Population

The paper explores the effects of immigration on the rates of growth of the population and labour force and on the age distribution and dependency relations within the population. Projections are presented and the consequences of different future rates of immigration are investigated. Dependency ratios based on various definitions are proposed and calculated, and the effects on the ratios of alternative future immigration rates are evaluated. The regional implications of different immigration rates are evaluated also. Simulations are carried out to determine how much immigration would be required to stabilize the future rate of growthimmigration; labour force; population age structure; simulation; growth