Collars and partitions of hyperbolic cone-surfaces

For compact Riemann surfaces, the collar theorem and Bers' partition theorem are major tools for working with simple closed geodesics. The main goal of this paper is to prove similar theorems for hyperbolic cone-surfaces. Hyperbolic two-dimensional orbifolds are a particular case of such surfaces. We consider all cone angles to be strictly less than $\pi$ to be able to consider partitions.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures; v2: minor changes, to appear in Geometriae Dedicat

On the Determinants of the Value of Call Options on Default-Free Bonds

Models of interest-dependent claims that imply similar term structures and levels of interest rate volatility also produce similar estimates of bond option values. This result is established for simple option forms with known closed-form solutions as well as for more complex options that require numerical methods for evaluation. The finding is confirmed for a wide range of economic conditions, and it is robust with respect to the number and nature of factors that generate interest-rate movements.

The Pricing of Default-Free Mortgages

In this paperwe examine the household's option to prepay or call a standard fixed-rate mortgage. Results based on simulation indicate that the value of this option is sensitive to the expected path of interest rates, the variation around that path, risk aversion and refinancing costs. Unfortunately, efforts to estimate the interest rate process (by us and by previous authors) have met with only limited success, and uncertainty exists regarding the degree of risk aversion and the magnitude of refinancing costs.Thus we conclude that the application of contingent-claims methodology to options on bonds is conceptually more difficult and operationally less reliable than is the analogous application to options on stocks.Despite these reservations concerning the use of our model as a technique for absolute valuation, preliminary findings on the effects of changes in mortgage contract design on the value of the prepayment option are encouraging. For example, our estimate of the relative values of the call options on 30- and 15-year mortgages and on level-payment and graduated-payment mortgages appear to be reasonably robust with respect to specifications of the interestrate process and the other parameters.These findings suggest that our model may be of considerable use within the context of relative or comparative valuation.

Pricing Rate Caps on Default-Free Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

A model is developed and utilized in this paper to value a life of loan interest rate cap on an ARM that reprices monthly. The value of the cap is seen to depend importantly on both the slope of the term structure and the variance of the one month rate. However, the cap value is not sensitive to the source of the slope of the term structure -- what precise combination of interest rate expectations and risk aversion determined the slope. This insensitivity is fortunate because of the great difficulty of knowing at any point in time why the term structure is what it is. Given the variation in the slope of the term structure and the variance of the one month rate that occurred over the 1979-84 period, the addition to the coupon rate on a one-month ARM that lenders should have charged for a 5 percent life of loan cap has ranged from 5 to 40 basis points.

Bayesian multi-model projection of climate: bias assumptions and interannual variability

Current climate change projections are based on comprehensive multi-model ensembles of global and regional climate simulations. Application of this information to impact studies requires a combined probabilistic estimate taking into account the different models and their performance under current climatic conditions. Here we present a Bayesian statistical model for the distribution of seasonal mean surface temperatures for control and scenario periods. The model combines observational data for the control period with the output of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by different global climate models (GCMs). The proposed Bayesian methodology addresses seasonal mean temperatures and considers both changes in mean temperature and interannual variability. In addition, unlike previous studies, our methodology explicitly considers model biases that are allowed to be time-dependent (i.e. change between control and scenario period). More specifically, the model considers additive and multiplicative model biases for each RCM and introduces two plausible assumptions ("constant bias” and "constant relationship”) about extrapolating the biases from the control to the scenario period. The resulting identifiability problem is resolved by using informative priors for the bias changes. A sensitivity analysis illustrates the role of the informative prior. As an example, we present results for Alpine winter and summer temperatures for control (1961-1990) and scenario periods (2071-2100) under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas scenario. For winter, both bias assumptions yield a comparable mean warming of 3.5-3.6°C. For summer, the two different assumptions have a strong influence on the probabilistic prediction of mean warming, which amounts to 5.4°C and 3.4°C for the "constant bias” and "constant relation” assumptions, respectively. Analysis shows that the underlying reason for this large uncertainty is due to the overestimation of summer interannual variability in all models considered. Our results show the necessity to consider potential bias changes when projecting climate under an emission scenario. Further work is needed to determine how bias information can be exploited for this tas

Z-11-TETRADECENYL ACETATE: SEX ATTRACTANT OF AGAPETA ZOEGANA (LEPIDOPTERA: TORTRICIDAE), A POTENTIAL SPECIES FOR THE BIOLOGICAL CONTROL OF KNAPWEED

In Canada, 78 of the most important weed species are introductions from Eurasia (Frankton and Mulligan 1970). Classical biological control aims to reduce the density of alien weeds below the economic threshold through introduction of specific herbivores from the native distribution area (Peschken 1979). During extended field surveys in central and southeastern Europe, the Commonwealth Institute of Biological Control established the root-mining tortricid Agapeta zoegana Haw. as a promising control agent for Centaurea diffusa Lam. and C. maculosa Lam., 2 important ranch weeds in southwestern Canada (Harris and Myers 1984) and the northwestern United States (Maddox 1982). Due to the limited host range and suitable climatic conditions this moth was chosen for introduction into North America (Müller et al. 1982; Müller 1984). We wish to report an attractant that may be used to monitor the establishment of this beneficial species in its new habita

M-grid: Using Ubiquitous Web Technologies to create a Computational Grid

There are many potential users and uses for grid computing. However, the concept of sharing computing resources excites security concerns and, whilst being powerful and flexible, at least for novices, existing systems are complex to install and use. Together these represent a significant barrier to potential users who are interested to see what grid computing can do. This paper describes m-grid, a system for building a computational grid which can accept tasks from any user with access to a web browser and distribute them to almost any machine with access to the internet and manages to do this without the installation of additional software or interfering with existing security arrangements

Uncertainty-principle noise in vacuum-tunneling transducers

The fundamental sources of noise in a vacuum-tunneling probe used as an electromechanical transducer to monitor the location of a test mass are examined using a first-quantization formalism. We show that a tunneling transducer enforces the Heisenberg uncertainty principle for the position and momentum of a test mass monitored by the transducer through the presence of two sources of noise: the shot noise of the tunneling current and the momentum fluctuations transferred by the tunneling electrons to the test mass. We analyze a number of cases including symmetric and asymmetric rectangular potential barriers and a barrier in which there is a constant electric field. Practical configurations for reaching the quantum limit in measurements of the position of macroscopic bodies with such a class of transducers are studied

Scalar fields on SL(2,R) and H^2 x R geometric spacetimes and linear perturbations

Using appropriate harmonics, we study the future asymptotic behavior of massless scalar fields on a class of cosmological vacuum spacetimes. The spatial manifold is assumed to be a circle bundle over a higher genus surface with a locally homogeneous metric. Such a manifold corresponds to the SL(2,R)-geometry (Bianchi VIII type) or the H^2 x R-geometry (Bianchi III type). After a technical preparation including an introduction of suitable harmonics for the circle-fibered Bianchi VIII to separate variables, we derive systems of ordinary differential equations for the scalar field. We present future asymptotic solutions for these equations in a special case, and find that there is a close similarity with those on the circle-fibered Bianchi III spacetime. We discuss implications of this similarity, especially to (gravitational) linear perturbations. We also point out that this similarity can be explained by the "fiber term dominated behavior" of the two models.Comment: 23 pages, no figures, to be published in Class. Quant. Gravi