A predictive model relating daily fluctuations in summer temperatures and mortality rates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the context of climate change, an efficient alert system to prevent the risk associated with summer heat is necessary. The authors' objective was to describe the temperature-mortality relationship in France over a 29-year period and to define and validate a combination of temperature factors enabling optimum prediction of the daily fluctuations in summer mortality.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study addressed the daily mortality rates of subjects aged over 55 years, in France as a whole, from 1975 to 2003. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures consisted in the average values recorded by 97 meteorological stations. For each day, a cumulative variable for the maximum temperature over the preceding 10 days was defined.</p> <p>The mortality rate was modelled using a Poisson regression with over-dispersion and a first-order autoregressive structure and with control for long-term and within-summer seasonal trends. The lag effects of temperature were accounted for by including the preceding 5 days. A "backward" method was used to select the most significant climatic variables. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by comparing the observed and predicted daily mortality rates on a validation period (summer 2003), which was distinct from the calibration period (1975–2002) used to estimate the model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The temperature indicators explained 76% of the total over-dispersion. The greater part of the daily fluctuations in mortality was explained by the interaction between minimum and maximum temperatures, for a day <it>t </it>and the day preceding it. The prediction of mortality during extreme events was greatly improved by including the cumulative variables for maximum temperature, in interaction with the maximum temperatures. The correlation between the observed and estimated mortality ratios was 0.88 in the final model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although France is a large country with geographic heterogeneity in both mortality and temperatures, a strong correlation between the daily fluctuations in mortality and the temperatures in summer on a national scale was observed. The model provided a satisfactory quantitative prediction of the daily mortality both for the days with usual temperatures and for the days during intense heat episodes. The results may contribute to enhancing the alert system for intense heat waves.</p

UDP-glucuronosyltransferase UGT1A7 genetic polymorphisms in hepatocellular carcinoma: a differential impact according to seropositivity of HBV or HCV markers?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background:</p> <p>We conducted a case-control study to evaluate the role of UDP-glucuronosyltransferase 1A7 (UGT1A7) polymorphisms in the onset of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).</p> <p>Methods:</p> <p>The study included 165 patients with HCC, 134 with cirrhosis and 142 controls without liver disease, matched for age and hospital. All were men younger than 75 years. HCC and cirrhosis patients were stratified according to time since cirrhosis diagnosis.</p> <p>Results:</p> <p>We found a positive association between the UGT1A7*3/*3 genotype and HCC when the comparison was restricted to patients whose disease was of viral origin [OR = 3.4 (0.3–45)] but a negative association when it included only alcoholic patients [OR = 0.1 (0.02–0.6), p = 0.01].</p> <p>Conclusion:</p> <p>Our study shows that UGT1A7 may play a role in hepatocellular carcinogenesis and that this role may differ according to the primary cause of the cirrhosis.</p

Childhood leukaemia and population movements in France, 1990–2003

In a national study, we investigated the incidence of childhood leukaemia (CL) over a 14-year period in France in relation to several measures based on the proportion of individuals who changed address between the last two national censuses. A positive association was found with the proportion of migrants who came from a distant place. The further the migrants came, the higher was the incidence of leukaemia, particularly among children aged 0–4 years in ‘isolated' communes at the time of diagnosis (RR=1.4, 95% CI: 1.1,1.8 in the highest category of migration distance). Although the role of the population density was less obvious, a more marked association was found above a certain threshold. No association with the proportion of commuters was observed

Incidence of childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of nuclear sites in France, 1990–1998

Overall, 670 cases (O) of childhood leukaemia were diagnosed within 20 km of the 29 French nuclear installations between 1990 and 1998 compared to an expected number (E) of 729.09 cases (O/E=0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI)=[0.85-0.99]). Each of the four areas defined around the sites showed non significant deficits of cases (0-5 km: O=65, O/E=0.87, CI=[0.67-1.10]; 5-10 km: O=165, O/E=0.95, CI=[0.81-1.10]; 10-15 km: O=220, O/E=0.88, CI=[0.77-1.00]; 15-20 km: O=220, O/E=0.96, CI=[0.84-1.10]). There was no evidence of a trend in standardised incidence ratio with distance from the sites for all children or for any of the three age groups studied. Similar results were obtained when the start-up year of the electricity-generating nuclear sites and their electric nuclear power were taken into account. No evidence was found of a generally increased risk of childhood leukaemia around the 29 French nuclear sites under study during 1990-1998

Ecological association between a deprivation index and mortality in France over the period 1997 – 2001: variations with spatial scale, degree of urbanicity, age, gender and cause of death

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Spatial health inequalities have often been analysed in terms of deprivation. The aim of this study was to create an ecological deprivation index and evaluate its association with mortality over the entire mainland France territory. More specifically, the variations with the degree of urbanicity, spatial scale, age, gender and cause of death, which influence the association between mortality and deprivation, have been described.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The deprivation index, 'FDep99', was developed at the '<it>commune</it>'(smallest administrative unit in France) level as the first component of a principal component analysis of four socioeconomic variables.</p> <p>Proxies of the Carstairs and Townsend indices were calculated for comparison.</p> <p>The spatial association between FDep99 and mortality was studied using five different spatial scales, and by degree of urbanicity (five urban unit categories), age, gender and cause of death, over the period 1997–2001.</p> <p>'Avoidable' causes of death were also considered for subjects aged less than 65 years. They were defined as causes related to risk behaviour and primary prevention (alcohol, smoking, accidents).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The association between the FDep99 index and mortality was positive and quasi-log-linear, for all geographic scales. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 24% higher for the <it>communes </it>of the most deprived quintile than for those of the least deprived quintile. The between-urban unit category and between-<it>région </it>heterogeneities of the log-linear associations were not statistically significant. The association was positive for all the categories studied and was significantly greater for subjects aged less than 65 years, for men, and for 'avoidable' mortality.</p> <p>The amplitude and regularity of the associations between mortality and the Townsend and Carstairs indices were lower.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The deprivation index proposed reflects a major part of spatial socioeconomic heterogeneity, in a homogeneous manner over the whole country. The index may be routinely used by healthcare authorities to observe, analyse, and manage spatial health inequalities.</p

Day-care, early common infections and childhood acute leukaemia: a multicentre French case–control study

We conducted a case–control study to investigate the role of early infections in the aetiology of childhood acute leukaemias. The study included 280 incident cases (240 acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and 40 acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia) and 288 hospital controls, frequency matched by age, gender, hospital, catchment area of the hospital and ethnic origin. Data were obtained from standardised face-to-face interviews of the mothers. The interviews included questions on early common infections, day-care attendance, breast-feeding, birth order and infantile diseases. Odds ratios were estimated using an unconditional regression model including the stratification variables, parental socio-economic status and perinatal characteristics. Birth order was not associated with childhood leukaemia (acute lymphoblastic or acute non-lymphoblastic). A statistically-significant inverse association was observed between childhood leukaemia and day-care attendance (odds ratio=0.6, 95% Confidence Interval=(0.4–1.0)), repeated early common infections (⩾4 per year before age two, odds ratio=0.6 (0.4–1.0)), surgical procedures for ear–nose–throat infections before age two (odds ratio=0.5 (0.2–1.0)) and prolonged breast-feeding (⩾6 months, odds ratio=0.5 (0.2–1.0)). In the multivariate model including day-care attendance, early common infections and breast-feeding, results concerning breast-feeding remained unchanged. A statistically significant interaction between day-care attendance and repeated early common infections was observed. When the interaction was taken into account, the simple effects of day-care and early common infections disappeared (odds ratio=1.1 (0.5–2.3) and odds ratio=0.8 (0.5–1.3), respectively) while the joint effect of day-care attendance and early common infections was negatively associated with childhood leukaemia (odds ratio=0.3 (0.1–0.8)). All the above associations were observed both for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia. Our results support Greaves' hypothesis, even though they are not specific of common leukaemia

Proximity to overhead power lines and childhood leukaemia: an international pooled analysis

© 2018, Cancer Research UK. Background: Although studies have consistently found an association between childhood leukaemia risk and magnetic fields, the associations between childhood leukaemia and distance to overhead power lines have been inconsistent. We pooled data from multiple studies to assess the association with distance and evaluate whether it is due to magnetic fields or other factors associated with distance from lines. Methods: We present a pooled analysis combining individual-level data (29,049 cases and 68,231 controls) from 11 record-based studies. Results: There was no material association between childhood leukaemia and distance to nearest overhead power line of any voltage. Among children living < 50 m from 200 + kV power lines, the adjusted odds ratio for childhood leukaemia was 1.33 (95% CI: 0.92–1.93). The odds ratio was higher among children diagnosed before age 5 years. There was no association with calculated magnetic fields. Odds ratios remained unchanged with adjustment for potential confounders. Conclusions: In this first comprehensive pooled analysis of childhood leukaemia and distance to power lines, we found a small and imprecise risk for residences < 50 m of 200 + kV lines that was not explained by high magnetic fields. Reasons for the increased risk, found in this and many other studies, remains to be elucidated