Claims of Potential Expansion throughout the U.S. by Invasive Python Species Are Contradicted by Ecological Niche Models

Background Recent reports from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) suggested that invasive Burmese pythons in the Everglades may quickly spread into many parts of the U.S. due to putative climatic suitability. Additionally, projected trends of global warming were predicted to significantly increase suitable habitat and promote range expansion by these snakes. However, the ecological limitations of the Burmese python are not known and the possible effects of global warming on the potential expansion of the species are also unclear. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we show that a predicted continental expansion is unlikely based on the ecology of the organism and the climate of the U.S. Our ecological niche models, which include variables representing climatic extremes as well as averages, indicate that the only suitable habitat in the U.S. for Burmese pythons presently occurs in southern Florida and in extreme southern Texas. Models based on the current distribution of the snake predict suitable habitat in essentially the only region in which the snakes are found in the U.S. Future climate models based on global warming forecasts actually indicate a significant contraction in suitable habitat for Burmese pythons in the U.S. as well as in their native range. Conclusions/Significance The Burmese python is strongly limited to the small area of suitable environmental conditions in the United States it currently inhabits due to the ecological niche preferences of the snake. The ability of the Burmese python to expand further into the U.S. is severely limited by ecological constraints. Global warming is predicted to significantly reduce the area of suitable habitat worldwide, underscoring the potential negative effects of climate change for many species

Claims of Potential Expansion throughout the U.S. by Invasive Python Species Are Contradicted by Ecological Niche Models

BACKGROUND: Recent reports from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) suggested that invasive Burmese pythons in the Everglades may quickly spread into many parts of the U.S. due to putative climatic suitability. Additionally, projected trends of global warming were predicted to significantly increase suitable habitat and promote range expansion by these snakes. However, the ecological limitations of the Burmese python are not known and the possible effects of global warming on the potential expansion of the species are also unclear. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we show that a predicted continental expansion is unlikely based on the ecology of the organism and the climate of the U.S. Our ecological niche models, which include variables representing climatic extremes as well as averages, indicate that the only suitable habitat in the U.S. for Burmese pythons presently occurs in southern Florida and in extreme southern Texas. Models based on the current distribution of the snake predict suitable habitat in essentially the only region in which the snakes are found in the U.S. Future climate models based on global warming forecasts actually indicate a significant contraction in suitable habitat for Burmese pythons in the U.S. as well as in their native range. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The Burmese python is strongly limited to the small area of suitable environmental conditions in the United States it currently inhabits due to the ecological niche preferences of the snake. The ability of the Burmese python to expand further into the U.S. is severely limited by ecological constraints. Global warming is predicted to significantly reduce the area of suitable habitat worldwide, underscoring the potential negative effects of climate change for many species

anon ad outgroup

Nexus file for species tree estimates for anonymous locus a

vim56d outgroup

Nexus file for species tree estimates for Vim5-6

piscwl.nex 3

Nexus file for Agkistrodon piscivorus for AHR

Data from: Considering gene flow when using coalescent methods to delimit lineages of North American pitvipers of the genus Agkistrodon

Examining species diversity and mechanisms of speciation using coalescent models provides a framework for how regional diversity is accrued, even in well-studied areas such as the Nearctic. It is likely, that gene flow among closely-related species with adjacent distributions may be common. However, the absence of gene flow is a primary assumption of many phylogeographical methods that produce species trees and delimit species using Bayesian or likelihood functions in a coalescent framework. In the present study, we examine delimitation when gene flow between species is present using empirical datasets from two species of North American pitvipers of the genus Agkistrodon. We also use niche modelling to determine whether these young lineages occur in distinct environmental niches. To manage the problem of gene flow between species, we first identify admixed individuals, demonstrate that gene flow has occurred, and then identify the impact of alternative population assignments of admixed individuals on delimitation posterior probabilities. In addition, we examine the influence of mitochondrial genes relative to other loci combined in coalescent analyses that delimit species. Here, we find that the copperheads (Agkistrodon contortrix) and the cottonmouths (Agkistrodon piscivorus) are each composed of two distinct species, with each occupying different niches. Importantly, we find that species can be delimited when the amount of gene flow between lineages is low, although the methods are acutely sensitive to population assignment of individuals

contcytb.phy

Nexus file for Agkistrodon contortrix for Cytochrome b

contaa.phy

Nexus file for Agkistrodon contortrix for anonymous locus a

cont11a.phy 2

Nexus file for Agkistrodon contortrix for anonymous locus 11

Agk collection master_Burbrink&Guiher

Spreadsheet of voucher numbers and collecting localities (georeferenced) for tissues of Agkistrodon contortrix and A. piscivorus used in this study. In the Nexus data files only the numbers prior to the "^" match up to the TG numbers in this list. For example TG103^9 is TG 103 in this list. Nuclear genes have been phased so there may be two copies in the Nexus files (second copy labeled b)