Does Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSA

Subjective beliefs and behavior regarding the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test for prostate cancer were surveyed among attendees of the 2006 meeting of the American Economic Association. Logical inconsistency was measured in percentage deviations from a restriction imposed by Bayes’ Rule on pairs of conditional beliefs. Economists with inconsistent beliefs tended to be more accurate than average, and consistent Bayesians were substantially less accurate. Within a loss function framework, we look for and cannot find evidence that inconsistent beliefs cause economic losses. Subjective beliefs about cancer risks do not predict PSA testing decisions, but social influences do.logical consistency, predictive accuracy, elicitation, non-Bayesian, ecological rationality

Does consistency predict accuracy of beliefs?: Economists surveyed about PSA

Subjective beliefs and behavior regarding the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test for prostate cancer were surveyed among attendees of the 2006 meeting of the American Economic Association. Logical inconsistency was measured in percentage deviations from a restriction imposed by Bayes’ Rule on pairs of conditional beliefs. Economists with inconsistent beliefs tended to be more accurate than average, and consistent Bayesians were substantially less accurate. Within a loss function framework, we look for and cannot find evidence that inconsistent beliefs cause economic losses. Subjective beliefs about cancer risks do not predict PSA testing decisions, but social influences do.logical consistency, predictive accuracy, elicitation, non-Bayesian, ecological rationality

Developmental disorders among Norwegian-born children with immigrant parents

publishedVersio

Differential Influence of Levodopa on Reward-Based Learning in Parkinson's Disease

The mesocorticolimbic dopamine (DA) system linking the dopaminergic midbrain to the prefrontal cortex and subcortical striatum has been shown to be sensitive to reinforcement in animals and humans. Within this system, coexistent segregated striato-frontal circuits have been linked to different functions. In the present study, we tested patients with Parkinson's disease (PD), a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by dopaminergic cell loss, on two reward-based learning tasks assumed to differentially involve dorsal and ventral striato-frontal circuits. 15 non-depressed and non-demented PD patients on levodopa monotherapy were tested both on and off medication. Levodopa had beneficial effects on the performance on an instrumental learning task with constant stimulus-reward associations, hypothesized to rely on dorsal striato-frontal circuits. In contrast, performance on a reversal learning task with changing reward contingencies, relying on ventral striato-frontal structures, was better in the unmedicated state. These results are in line with the “overdose hypothesis” which assumes detrimental effects of dopaminergic medication on functions relying upon less affected regions in PD. This study demonstrates, in a within-subject design, a double dissociation of dopaminergic medication and performance on two reward-based learning tasks differing in regard to whether reward contingencies are constant or dynamic. There was no evidence for a dose effect of levodopa on reward-based behavior with the patients’ actual levodopa dose being uncorrelated to their performance on the reward-based learning tasks

Prenatal exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and associations with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and autism spectrum disorder in children

Background Prenatal exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) may be a risk factor for neurodevelopmental deficits and disorders, but evidence is inconsistent. Objectives We investigated whether prenatal exposure to PFAS were associated with childhood diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) or autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Methods This study was based on the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study and included n = 821 ADHD cases, n = 400 ASD cases and n = 980 controls. Diagnostic cases were identified by linkage with the Norwegian Patient Registry. In addition, we used data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. The study included the following PFAS measured in maternal plasma sampled mid-pregnancy: Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptanesulfonic acid (PFHpS), and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). Relationships between individual PFAS and ADHD or ASD diagnoses were examined using multivariable adjusted logistic regression models. We also tested for possible non-linear exposure-outcome associations. Further, we investigated the PFAS mixture associations with ASD and ADHD diagnoses using a quantile-based g-computation approach. Results Odds of ASD was significantly elevated in PFOA quartile 2 [OR = 1.71 (95% CI: 1.20, 2.45)] compared to quartile 1, and PFOA appeared to have a non-linear, inverted U-shaped dose-response relationship with ASD. PFOA was also associated with increased odds of ADHD, mainly in quartile 2 [OR = 1.54 (95% CI: 1.16, 2.04)] compared to quartile 1, and displayed a non-linear relationship in the restricted cubic spline model. Several PFAS (PFUnDA, PFDA, and PFOS) were inversely associated with odds of ADHD and/or ASD. Some of the associations were modified by child sex and maternal education. The overall PFAS mixture was inversely associated with ASD [OR = 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.90)] as well as the carboxylate mixture [OR = 0.79 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.93)] and the sulfonate mixture [OR = 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.96)]. Conclusion Prenatal exposure to PFOA was associated with increased risk of ASD and ADHD in children. For some PFAS, as well as their mixtures, there were inverse associations with ASD and/or ADHD. However, the inverse associations reported herein should not be interpreted as protective effects, but rather that there could be some unresolved confounding for these relationships. The epidemiologic literature linking PFAS exposures with neurodevelopmental outcomes is still inconclusive, suggesting the need for more research to elucidate the neurotoxicological potential of PFAS during early development

Prenatal exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances and associations with symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and cognitive functions in preschool children

BACKGROUND: Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are persistent organic pollutants that are suspected to be neurodevelopmental toxicants, but epidemiological evidence on neurodevelopmental effects of PFAS exposure is inconsistent. We investigated the associations between prenatal exposure to PFASs and symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and cognitive functioning (language skills, estimated IQ and working memory) in preschool children, as well as effect modification by child sex. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This study included 944 mother-child pairs enrolled in a longitudinal prospective study of ADHD symptoms (the ADHD Study), with participants recruited from The Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). Boys and girls aged three and a half years, participated in extensive clinical assessments using well-validated tools; The Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment interview, Child Development Inventory and Stanford-Binet (5th revision). Prenatal levels of 19 PFASs were measured in maternal blood at week 17 of gestation. Multivariable adjusted regression models were used to examine exposure-outcome associations with two principal components extracted from the seven detected PFASs. Based on these results, we performed regression analyses of individual PFASs categorized into quintiles. RESULTS: PFAS component 1 was mainly explained by perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). PFAS component 2 was mainly explained by perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA). Regression models showed a negative association between PFAS component 1 and nonverbal working memory [β = -0.08 (CI: -0.12, -0.03)] and a positive association between PFAS component 2 and verbal working memory [β = 0.07 (CI: 0.01, 0.12)]. There were no associations with ADHD symptoms, language skills or IQ. For verbal working memory and PFAS component 2, we found evidence for effect modification by child sex, with associations only for boys. The results of quintile models with individual PFASs, showed the same pattern for working memory as the results in the component regression analyses. There were negative associations between nonverbal working memory and quintiles of PFOA, PFNA, PFHxS, PFHpS and PFOS and positive associations between verbal working memory and quintiles of PFOA, PFNA, PFDA and PFUnDA, with significant relationships mainly in the highest concentration groups. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our results, we did not find consistent evidence to conclude that prenatal exposure to PFASs are associated with ADHD symptoms or cognitive dysfunctions in preschool children aged three and a half years, which is in line with the majority of studies in this area. Our results showed some associations between PFASs and working memory, particularly negative relationships with nonverbal working memory, but also positive relationships with verbal working memory. The relationships were weak, as well as both positive and negative, which suggest no clear association - and need for replication.This research was funded by the Research Council of Norway (MILJØFORSK, project no. 267984/E50 “NeuroTox”), National Institutes of Health (NIH) R01ES021777, and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) P30 ES010126. The ADHD Study, from which the present data were drawn, was supported by funds and grants from the Norwegian Ministry of Health, the Norwegian Health Directorate, the South-Eastern Health Region, G&PJ Sorensen Fund for Scientific Research, and from the Norwegian Resource Centre for ADHD, Tourette syndrome and Narcolepsy. The Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study is supported by the Norwegian Ministry of Health and Care Services and the Ministry of Education and Research, NIH, and National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) (grant no.1 UO1 NS 047537-01 and grant no.2 UO1 NS 047537-06A1). We are grateful to all the participating families in Norway who take part in this on-going cohort study, and to the staff of the ADHD Study.publishedVersio

Association between gestational levels of toxic metals and essential elements and cerebral palsy in children

IntroductionCerebral palsy (CP) is the most common motor disability in childhood, but its causes are only partly known. Early-life exposure to toxic metals and inadequate or excess amounts of essential elements can adversely affect brain and nervous system development. However, little is still known about these as perinatal risk factors for CP. This study aims to investigate the associations between second trimester maternal blood levels of toxic metals, essential elements, and mixtures thereof, with CP diagnoses in children.MethodsIn a large, population-based prospective birth cohort (The Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study), children with CP diagnoses were identified through The Norwegian Patient Registry and Cerebral Palsy Registry of Norway. One hundred forty-four children with CP and 1,082 controls were included. The relationship between maternal blood concentrations of five toxic metals and six essential elements and CP diagnoses were investigated using mixture approaches: elastic net with stability selection to identify important metals/elements in the mixture in relation to CP; then logistic regressions of the selected metals/elements to estimate odds ratio (OR) of CP and two-way interactions among metals/elements and with child sex and maternal education. Finally, the joint effects of the mixtures on CP diagnoses were estimated using quantile-based g-computation analyses.ResultsThe essential elements manganese and copper, as well as the toxic metal Hg, were the most important in relation to CP. Elevated maternal levels of copper (OR = 1.40) and manganese (OR = 1.20) were associated with increased risk of CP, while Hg levels were, counterintuitively, inversely related to CP. Metal/element interactions that were associated with CP were observed, and that sex and maternal education influenced the relationships between metals/elements and CP. In the joint mixture approach no significant association between the mixture of metals/elements and CP (OR = 1.00, 95% CI = [0.67, 1.50]) was identified.ConclusionUsing mixture approaches, elevated levels of copper and manganese measured in maternal blood during the second trimester could be related to increased risk of CP in children. The inverse associations between maternal Hg and CP could reflect Hg as a marker of maternal fish intake and thus nutrients beneficial for foetal brain development

Association between gestational levels of toxic metals and essential elements and cerebral palsy in children

Introduction Cerebral palsy (CP) is the most common motor disability in childhood, but its causes are only partly known. Early-life exposure to toxic metals and inadequate or excess amounts of essential elements can adversely affect brain and nervous system development. However, little is still known about these as perinatal risk factors for CP. This study aims to investigate the associations between second trimester maternal blood levels of toxic metals, essential elements, and mixtures thereof, with CP diagnoses in children. Methods In a large, population-based prospective birth cohort (The Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study), children with CP diagnoses were identified through The Norwegian Patient Registry and Cerebral Palsy Registry of Norway. One hundred forty-four children with CP and 1,082 controls were included. The relationship between maternal blood concentrations of five toxic metals and six essential elements and CP diagnoses were investigated using mixture approaches: elastic net with stability selection to identify important metals/elements in the mixture in relation to CP; then logistic regressions of the selected metals/elements to estimate odds ratio (OR) of CP and two-way interactions among metals/elements and with child sex and maternal education. Finally, the joint effects of the mixtures on CP diagnoses were estimated using quantile-based g-computation analyses. Results The essential elements manganese and copper, as well as the toxic metal Hg, were the most important in relation to CP. Elevated maternal levels of copper (OR = 1.40) and manganese (OR = 1.20) were associated with increased risk of CP, while Hg levels were, counterintuitively, inversely related to CP. Metal/element interactions that were associated with CP were observed, and that sex and maternal education influenced the relationships between metals/elements and CP. In the joint mixture approach no significant association between the mixture of metals/elements and CP (OR = 1.00, 95% CI = [0.67, 1.50]) was identified. Conclusion Using mixture approaches, elevated levels of copper and manganese measured in maternal blood during the second trimester could be related to increased risk of CP in children. The inverse associations between maternal Hg and CP could reflect Hg as a marker of maternal fish intake and thus nutrients beneficial for foetal brain development

The Neural Basis of Following Advice

Learning by following explicit advice is fundamental for human cultural evolution, yet the neurobiology of adaptive social learning is largely unknown. Here, we used simulations to analyze the adaptive value of social learning mechanisms, computational modeling of behavioral data to describe cognitive mechanisms involved in social learning, and model-based functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to identify the neurobiological basis of following advice. One-time advice received before learning had a sustained influence on people's learning processes. This was best explained by social learning mechanisms implementing a more positive evaluation of the outcomes from recommended options. Computer simulations showed that this “outcome-bonus” accumulates more rewards than an alternative mechanism implementing higher initial reward expectation for recommended options. fMRI results revealed a neural outcome-bonus signal in the septal area and the left caudate. This neural signal coded rewards in the absence of advice, and crucially, it signaled greater positive rewards for positive and negative feedback after recommended rather than after non-recommended choices. Hence, our results indicate that following advice is intrinsically rewarding. A positive correlation between the model's outcome-bonus parameter and amygdala activity after positive feedback directly relates the computational model to brain activity. These results advance the understanding of social learning by providing a neurobiological account for adaptive learning from advice