Three-level energy decoupling : energy decoupling at the primary, final and useful levels of energy use

Tese de doutoramento, Sistemas Sustentáveis de Energia, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015Reducing the energy intensity of the economy (energy decoupling) is one of the top priorities of the sustainability agenda. As energy is fundamental for every economic activity, any measure to reduce its consumption must be adequately designed so as not to negatively affect economic growth. Primary energy intensity, which is the standard indicator for energy decoupling analysis, has a high degree of aggregation and therefore is unable to give enough information about its components. A close look at this indicator suggests that the analysis of energy decoupling can be improved with an adequate characterization of energy flows. The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of energy decoupling by including in the analysis a detailed characterization of the transformation and use of energy flows in the economy. The work consisted of building models that disentangle economic and energy components from primary energy use. To do so, several methodological tools were used: useful work accounting, decomposition techniques, and input‐output analysis. The proposed models successfully deconstruct primary energy use into several components: 1) structure and efficiency of the primary‐to‐final conversion; 3) structure and efficiency of the final‐to‐useful conversion; 3) useful exergy demand composition and intensity; 4) economic structure; and 5) final demand of non‐energy goods and services. Through these models, it is possible to analyze the relative contribution of each factor on energy decoupling (or coupling) in economic systems. The models were applied to evaluate the trends of primary energy use and energy decoupling in Portugal between 1995 and 2010. The country experienced a relative decoupling driven by three main forces: improvements in primary‐to‐final energy conversion efficiencies, reductions in useful exergy intensity and economic structural changes. This study shows that the analysis of energy decoupling can be improved by the inclusion of three levels of energy use, i.e. primary, final and useful. The present thesis contributes to the literature of energy decoupling, energy input‐output analysis and energy‐related decomposition studies.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT

Structural transitions and energy use: a decomposition analysis of Portugal 1995–2010

Industrial Ecolog

Driving factors of differences in primary energy intensities of 14 European countries

The EU is committed to become climate-neutral by 2050 while keeping its prosperity intact. To align the bloc towards this goal, it is fundamental to understand the spatial differences in energy performance among its members. The present study aims to identify the main drivers of primary energy intensity differences among fourteen European countries (i.e., the EU15 without Luxemburg) during the period 2000–2010. To do so, we apply for the first time the multi-factor energy input-output model to spatial structural decomposition analysis.The results show that differences in the industrial direct energy intensity and in the mix of final energy demandwere the driving factors of primary energy intensity differences among countries, while, remarkably, structural differences in both the energy sector and in the rest of the economy were not as relevant. This implies that deepening industrial and residential efficiency policies should be a key objective in addition to the current policy efforts to deploy renewables in the energy sector. In addition, we show that the proposed approach helps overcome the main shortcomings of conventional spatial decomposition approaches, e.g., the inconsistent accountingof energy conversion processes in the economy; and its detailed results can be translated into more effective policy making

Insights on Energy Transitions in Mexico from the Analysis of Useful Exergy 1971–2009

The analysis of useful exergy (UE), which is the minimum amount of work required to produce a given end-use, provides insights on the relationships between structural changes and energy transitions because it focuses on what energy is used for, i.e., energy services, rather than where it comes from, i.e., energy carriers. In this paper, UE was accounted for Mexico in 1971–2009. It was found that UE experienced a six-fold growth, led by the increasing share of mechanical drive and electric energy uses. Structural changes such as industrialization and complete electrification mainly drove UE transitions. Technological progress, mainly driven by the industrial sector, and electricity availability caused an improvement in the aggregate final-to-useful efficiency of the economy. In addition, the trend of increasing UE economic intensity shows that Mexico became more dependent on UE per unit of economic output during industrialization. The results suggest that UE trends were more influenced by structural transitions while final exergy trends were more influenced by economic fluctuations. It is concluded that energy policy design in developing countries undergoing or starting the process of industrialization should focus on: (1) improvements in final-to-useful efficiency, especially of the transportation sector and (2) growth of the productivity of UE

The Status and Evolution of Energy Supply and Use in Mexico Prior to the 2014 Energy Reform: An Input-Output Approach †

In 2014, the Mexican government approved a bold energy reform that allows private energy companies to freely participate in the energy market (something prohibited during the previous eight decades). This reform is expected to significantly restructure the energy sector and boost and diversify the energy production. Moreover, changes in the energy sector and production might lead to structural changes in the rest of the economy and ultimately generate significant economic benefits for the country. Nevertheless, the fundamental role of the energy sector in this oil producing country makes the potential impacts of the reform complex to forecast. The objective of the study is to analyze the current state, evolution, and driving factors of the total primary energy use in Mexico in 2003–2012 (prior to the implementation of the reform) as a precedent for future analyses of impacts of the energy reform. The results show three driving factors of the evolution of primary energy use: final non-energy demand, direct energy intensity, and economic structure. Also, it was found that the energy sector has been in a precarious situation regarding its structure and efficiency. However, this situation had a small effect on the evolution of primary energy use

Deploying artificial intelligence for climate change adaptation

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is believed to have a significant potential use in tackling climate change. This paper explores the connections between AI and climate change research as a whole and its usefulness in climate change adaptation efforts in particular. Using a systematic review of the literature on applications of AI for climate change adaptation and a questionnaire survey of a multinational and interdisciplinary team of climate change researchers, this paper shows the various means via which AI can support research on climate change in diverse regions, and contribute to efforts towards climate change adaptation. The surveyed articles are classified under nine areas, e.g., Global/Earth Related; Water-related Issues and agriculture, 95% of which are related to adaptation. The areas that have attracted the most studies about AI applications are water-related management issues (38%). In terms of the survey results, the most robust agreements were noted concerning the capacity of digitisation and AI to strengthen governance practices and afford policy coherence in climate change. Evidence gathered in the study suggests that, provided that due care is taken, the use of AI can provide a welcome support to global efforts to better understand and handle the many challenges associated with a changing climate