Rainfall inequality, trust and civil conflict in Nigeria

Do changes in the distribution of rainfall between ethnic groups increase the risk of armed conflicts within Nigeria? In this paper, we exploit variation in rainfall during the growing season, to study how resource inequality between ethnic groups affects the risks of violent conflicts in Nigeria. Our main results show that a one standard deviation change in between-group rainfall inequality during the growing season increases civil conflicts prevalence in Nigeria by about seven percentage points. This relationship is driven, in part, by declining social capital. Specifically, we demonstrated that an unequal distribution of rainfall between ethnic groups reinforces citizens grievances over government performance and creates mistrust between predominantly farming communities and those engaged in nomadic herding. The analysis highlights the need to develop conflict-sensitive mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the adverse effects of climatic shock

COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and hesitancy in low- and middle-income countries

Widespread acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines is crucial for achieving sufficient immunization coverage to end the global pandemic, yet few studies have investigated COVID-19 vaccination attitudes in lower-income countries, where large-scale vaccination is just beginning. We analyze COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across 15 survey samples covering 10 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia, Africa and South America, Russia (an upper-middle-income country) and the United States, including a total of 44,260 individuals. We find considerably higher willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine in our LMIC samples (mean 80.3%; median 78%; range 30.1 percentage points) compared with the United States (mean 64.6%) and Russia (mean 30.4%). Vaccine acceptance in LMICs is primarily explained by an interest in personal protection against COVID-19, while concern about side effects is the most common reason for hesitancy. Health workers are the most trusted sources of guidance about COVID-19 vaccines. Evidence from this sample of LMICs suggests that prioritizing vaccine distribution to the Global South should yield high returns in advancing global immunization coverage. Vaccination campaigns should focus on translating the high levels of stated acceptance into actual uptake. Messages highlighting vaccine efficacy and safety, delivered by healthcare workers, could be effective for addressing any remaining hesitancy in the analyzed LMICs

COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and hesitancy in low- and middle-income countries

Widespread acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines is crucial for achieving sufficient immunization coverage to end the global pandemic, yet few studies have investigated COVID-19 vaccination attitudes in lower-income countries, where large-scale vaccination is just beginning. We analyze COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across 15 survey samples covering 10 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia, Africa and South America, Russia (an upper-middle-income country) and the United States, including a total of 44,260 individuals. We find considerably higher willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine in our LMIC samples (mean 80.3%; median 78%; range 30.1 percentage points) compared with the United States (mean 64.6%) and Russia (mean 30.4%). Vaccine acceptance in LMICs is primarily explained by an interest in personal protection against COVID-19, while concern about side effects is the most common reason for hesitancy. Health workers are the most trusted sources of guidance about COVID-19 vaccines. Evidence from this sample of LMICs suggests that prioritizing vaccine distribution to the Global South should yield high returns in advancing global immunization coverage. Vaccination campaigns should focus on translating the high levels of stated acceptance into actual uptake. Messages highlighting vaccine efficacy and safety, delivered by healthcare workers, could be effective for addressing any remaining hesitancy in the analyzed LMICs.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Food Price Shocks and the Political Economy of Global Agricultural and Development Policy

The recent spikes of global food prices induced a rapid increase in mass media coverage, public policy attention, and donor funding for food security and for agriculture and rural poverty. This has occurred while the shift from low to high food prices has induced a shift in (demographic or social) location of the hunger and poverty effects, but the total number of undernourished and poor people has declined over the same period. We suggest that the observed pattern can be explained by the presence of a global urban bias on agriculture and food policy in developing countries, and we discuss whether this global urban bias may actually benefit poor farmers. We argue that the food price spikes have succeeded where others have failed in the past: to move the problems of poor and hungry farmers to the top of the policy agenda and to induce development and donor strategies to help them

Essays in development economics.

status: publishe

Armed conflict and schooling in Rwanda: digging deeper

Investigating the impact of armed conflict on schooling in Rwanda, we present four key findings. First, we find a strong drop in schooling, both when using DHS data and when relying on two waves of population census data bracketing the violence. Second, in contrast to previous findings, we show that there is no leveling off, i.e. the drop is not stronger for non-poor and boys. Third, we demonstrate that the armed conflict caused a drop both in primary and secondary schooling attainment, be it through different channels;the drop in primary schooling driven by slower grade progression and increased drop-outs, while the drop in secondary schooling mostly due to a decline in school initiation. Finally,our results reveal a spatial mismatch between commune-level genocide intensity and the drop in schooling. We test for several potentially confounding factors, but find that none of these factors can fully account for the mismatch. We conjecture that the impact of armed conflict on schooling in Rwanda was nationwide, both because the disruption caused by the genocide affected every corner of the country and because - besides the genocide - other forms of violence took place in Rwanda in the nineties.status: publishe

Aid, trade and the post-war recovery of the Rwandan coffee sector

We investigate the post-war recovery of the Rwandan coffee sector. First, we look at the recovery of export earnings at the national level and show that the role played by the rise in international coffee prices largely outweighed the one played by domestic policies to boost coffee production and quality. Second, we analyze the subnational variation in the recovery of coffee tree investment and reveal the legacy of armed conflict. In 1999 – five years after the peak of the violence – highly violence-affected regions exhibit significantly lower tree planting and maintenance. Within a decade, the gap is however closed. We discuss the role that positive externalities generated by high-profile public investments in the coffee sector might have played in the catch-up process. We frame this discussion in the wider debate on the nature of the Rwandan State.status: publishe