Evolución técnica de la evaluación de proyectos públicos. La formación del precio de cuenta del trabajo

El problema básico de una economía es la limitación de sus recursos centrales: capital, trabajo, recursos naturales y divisas. Todos los gobiernos deben enfrentarse pues, al problema de cómo distribuir esos recursos centrales entre múltiples usos alternativos. El objetivo que guíe esas decisiones debe ser en cualquier caso conseguir el máximo beneficio posible para la sociedad. A medida que las intervenciones públicas han ido convirtiéndose en uno de los principales instrumentos de política económica, y el gasto público alcanzaba importantes dimensiones, comenzó a surgir la preocupación por la eficiencia de dichas intervenciones. A ello contribuyó además la instauración de regímenes democráticos, que permitían una mayor participación de los ciudadanos en la toma de decisiones de política económica. De esta manera empezaron a desarrollarse diversas técnicas con el fin de evaluar los distintos proyectos alternativos, y determinar así su conveniencia desde el punto de vista social. En definitiva, se trataba de valorar los costes y beneficios sociales de cada proyecto, para hacerlos comparables y poder discriminar entre ellos

LOS PRECIOS SOMBRA EN ESPAÑA A PARTIR DEL ANÁLISIS INPUT-OUTPUT

This paper presents the description of a methodology based on input-output analysis which permits the estimation of the shadow prices for goods and resources in an economy. Application for Spain is presented as well. The results show that in general shadow prices are different from market prices, and this implies the direct use of the later in social analysis is not valid. Finally, a theoretical proposal to include external effects of production in the initial model is presented. Classification-JEL : B41, D61, E61, E62social project appraisal, shadow prices, input-output analysis, spillovers

From transfers to capital: analyzing the Spanish demand for wealth using NTA

Inter- and intra-family transfers are a very important part of our daily economic activity. These transfers, whether familial or public, may influence our economic decisions to the same extent that financial markets do. In this paper, we seek to understand how the Spanish stock of capital will evolve if the set of intergenerational transfers observed in year 2000 are maintained in the future. With that aim in mind, we have implemented a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with realistic public and familial transfers drawn from the National Transfer Accounts project (NTA). Given that familial transfers go from parents to children, and public transfers go from children to parents, we show that the Spanish baby boom and baby bust will make the second demographic dividend temporary, and that welfare will be reduced from 2040 onwards.Spain, demographic ageing, economic demography, economic growth

Cyclically neutral generational accounting

This paper introduces a methodological innovation into Generational Accounting. By incorporating cyclically-adjusted balances into the forward-looking budget projections underlying the concept we isolate pure policy effects, which render comparisons of the fiscal sustainability indicators obtained across time and countries truly meaningful. We also show that a demographic effect and a debt effect may bias fiscal sustainability measures over time, and establish a routine to control for these effects in the generational accounting framework. An empirical application for Spain illustrates that our proposed decomposition of indicators is empirically relevant. Standard generational accounting suggests that fiscal sustainability in Spain improved substantially in preparing for EMU. However, calculation of the pure policy effects reveals that this has not been the case

A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050

The need for long-term fiscal projections is self evident. Of these projections, pension expenditure is one of the most important since firstly it represents a large share of total expenditure, and secondly because of the positive correlation between this variable and demographic ageing. In this paper, we develop a model to project contributory pension expenditures in the Spanish Social Security System disaggregating the results by pension category, social security regime and sex. The most salient of the results obtained is the expected steady growth of total expenditure in contributory pensions. This would lie around 15% of GDP around 2045 compared to its initial level of barely 8% even though the baseline scenario incorporates a substantial recovery of employment and female participation rates. By pension categories, retirement pensions are those that determine the tendency of total expenditure evolution. Interesting conclusions can also be extracted from the analysis by sex. For instance, even accounting for an increase in female retirement pensions due to their higher participation, the corresponding increase in widow male pensions implies a higher total increase of the total number of contributory pensions accruing to men.Pensions system, sustainability, public expenditure.

Sustainability and adequacy of the Spanish pension system after the 2013 reform: a microsimulation analysis [WP]

Concerns about the consequences of demographic ageing on the sustainability of the pension system has led to the adoption of reforms reducing pension expenditure. However, the impact of these reforms on pension adequacy is now coming under increasing scrutiny. Taking recent Spanish reform as an example, this paper analyses the extent to which fostering pension sustainability threatens pension adequacy. Using an extension of the DyPeS behavioural microsimulation model, results show that the introduction of mechanisms linking retirement pensions to the evolution of the social security budget balance has strong and negative effects on adequacy. The gains in sustainability are mainly driven by the significant fall in the benefit ratio (average pension to average wage), worsening the relative economic position of pensioners throughout forthcoming decades, reversing the past trend

La sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones. una aproximación a partir de la MCVL

En este trabajo se presenta una proyección del gasto en pensiones contributivas del sistema de Seguridad Social en España, utilizando una nueva fuente de datos recientemente disponible: la Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales (MCVL) de la Seguridad Social. Ésta contiene información sumamente útil de cara a la proyección futura del gasto en pensiones no disponible anteriormente en otras fuentes. Por ello, los anteriores ejercicios de proyección del gasto en pensiones exigían, en muchos casos, la adopción de supuestos heroicos para desagregar el gasto en las categorías necesarias –edad, sexo, etc. El modelo de proyección utilizado puede situarse en la frontera entre los modelos de microsimulación dinámicos sin comportamiento y los modelos contables que incorporan un cierto nivel de heteregoneidad. En concreto, la simulación del gasto se desagrega por tipo de pensión, edad y sexo. Si bien los resultados obtenidos están en línea con los de trabajos previos, hay diferencias destacables directamente relacionadas con las dos principales mejoras que la información de la MCVL permite incorporar a la estimación. En primer lugar, es posible la estimación de perfiles longitudinales de salarios, cuya introducción en la proyección resulta tener un impacto considerable, ya que predicen que los déficits financieros del sistema contributivo llegarían seis años antes. En segundo lugar, puede cuantificarse el efecto de la existencia de topes máximos y mínimos para las pensiones. En particular, los resultados indican que una indiciación de los mismos estrictamente con la inflación,durante todo el período de proyección, supondría un ahorro del orden de 1,13 puntos del PIB en 2050.proyecciones fiscales, sistema de pensiones, gasto público, tasa de reemplazo.

Sustainability and adequacy of the Spanish pension system after the 2013 reform: a microsimulation analysis

Concerns about the consequences of demographic ageing on the sustainability of the pension system has led to the adoption of reforms reducing pension expenditure. However, the impact of these reforms on pension adequacy is now coming under increasing scrutiny. Taking recent Spanish reform as an example, this paper analyses the extent to which fostering pension sustainability threatens pension adequacy. Using an extension of the DyPeS behavioural microsimulation model, results show that the introduction of mechanisms linking retirement pensions to the evolution of the social security budget balance has strong and negative effects on adequacy. The gains in sustainability are mainly driven by the significant fall in the benefit ratio (average pension to average wage), worsening the relative economic position of pensioners throughout forthcoming decades, reversing the past trend