The Impact of Public Guarantees on Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

In 2001, government guarantees for savings banks in Germany were removed following a law suit. We use this natural experiment to examine the effect of government guarantees on bank risk taking, using a large data set of matched bank/borrower information. The results suggest that banks whose government guarantee was removed reduced credit risk by cutting off the riskiest borrowers from credit. At the same time, the banks also increased interest rates on their remaining borrowers. The effects are economically large: the Z-Score of average borrowers increased by 7% and the average loan size declined by 13%. Remaining borrowers paid 57 basis points higher interest rates, despite their higher quality. Using a difference-in-differences approach we show that the effect is larger for banks that ex ante benefitted more from the guarantee. We show that both the credit quality of new customers improved (screening) and that the loans of existing riskier borrowers were less likely to be renewed (monitoring), after the removal of public guarantees. Public guarantees seem to be associated with substantial moral hazard effects.banking;public guarantees;credit risk;moral hazard

Contribution to advanced hot wire wind sensing

The thermal anemometry is a method which allows to estimate wind magnitude be the mean of measuring heat transfer to the ambient in a forced convection process. For Earth's atmosphere condition, this method is typically applied to the hot wires made of temperature dependent electrical conductor, typically platinum or tungsten, which working with overheat in reference to the ambient temperature estimate wind velocity. In case of the low pressure atmospheres, like this on Mars, the mean free path for molecules, due to the rarefied ambient conditions, is much bigger, Using hot wires designed for Earth in this conditions gives that heat exchange at macroscopic scale which does not to obey medium continuum model but rather reveals ballistic behavior Thus, instead of using hot wire, a structure of bigger dimension like hot films are usually propose for such a kind of application. The work included in this thesis is the contribution of the author Lukasz Kowalski to the goal of developing a new generation of wind sensors for the atmosphere of Mars. The work consists in the conception, design, simulation, manufacture and measurement of two novel types wind sensors based on thermal anemometers. The first kind of concept has been developed in this thesis by using hot silicon die made out of silicon wafer of approximate size: 1.5 x 1.5 x 0.5 mm with platinum resistances deposited on top in order to heat it and sense its temperature. These work was been a part of the bigger undertaking under the project name: "Colaboracíoon en el desarrollo de la estación medioambiental denominada REMS ". Inside the project REMS author of thesis was responsible for sensor shape development and concept validation of proposed geometry. Thermal-fluidical model of the device as well as characterization and behavior were analyzed for a simplified 2-D wind model for typical Martian atmospheric conditions. REMS was a Spanish contribution to the NASA mission MSL which has been a great success since rover Curiosity has landed on Mars on 8th August 2012 on Mars near to the Gale Crater location. Since then has been constantly running experiments on the Red Planet sending data to Earth for interpretation. From the experience and knowledge gained during REMS project, the author came out with an idea of the novel spherical sensor structure overcoming some fragility problems detected in the REMS wind sensor. The new 3-D wind sensor concept, besides this advantage, also provided a radical simplification of data post-processing providing comprehensive thermal model based on numerical simulation for any possible wind occurrence. This new device has been developed under Spanish Ministry of the Science and Innovation project: "Sensor de viento para la superficie de Marte para la mission Metnet''. This project, denominated as MEIGA, was a joint effort of many Spanish institution under leadership of Instituto Nacional de Tecnica Aeroespacial (INTA) for the development of space technology for Mars oriented application in a framework of upcoming space mission. To sum up, author's work include contributions to the development of two wind sensor concepts: 1. REMS wind sensor on board of the rover Curiosity in the surface of Mars since August 8th 2012 2. Spherical wind sensor concept developed in a course of MEIGA projec

Retrospective cohort study to devise a treatment decision score predicting adverse 24-month radiological activity in early multiple sclerosis

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neuroinflammatory disease affecting about 2.8 million people worldwide. Disease course after the most common diagnoses of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is highly variable and cannot be reliably predicted. This impairs early personalized treatment decisions. Objectives: The main objective of this study was to algorithmically support clinical decision-making regarding the options of early platform medication or no immediate treatment of patients with early RRMS and CIS. Design: Retrospective monocentric cohort study within the Data Integration for Future Medicine (DIFUTURE) Consortium. Methods: Multiple data sources of routine clinical, imaging and laboratory data derived from a large and deeply characterized cohort of patients with MS were integrated to conduct a retrospective study to create and internally validate a treatment decision score [Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Decision Score (MS-TDS)] through model-based random forests (RFs). The MS-TDS predicts the probability of no new or enlarging lesions in cerebral magnetic resonance images (cMRIs) between 6 and 24 months after the first cMRI. Results: Data from 65 predictors collected for 475 patients between 2008 and 2017 were included. No medication and platform medication were administered to 277 (58.3%) and 198 (41.7%) patients. The MS-TDS predicted individual outcomes with a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.624. The respective RF prediction model provides patient-specific MS-TDS and probabilities of treatment success. The latter may increase by 5–20% for half of the patients if the treatment considered superior by the MS-TDS is used. Conclusion: Routine clinical data from multiple sources can be successfully integrated to build prediction models to support treatment decision-making. In this study, the resulting MS-TDS estimates individualized treatment success probabilities that can identify patients who benefit from early platform medication. External validation of the MS-TDS is required, and a prospective study is currently being conducted. In addition, the clinical relevance of the MS-TDS needs to be established

Water from abandoned mines as a heat source: practical experiences of open- and closed-loop strategies, United Kingdom

Pilot heat pump systems have been installed at two former collieries in Yorkshire/Derbyshire, England, to extract heat from mine water. The installations represent three fundamental configurations of heat exchanger. At Caphouse Colliery, mine water is pumped through a heat exchanger coupled to a heat pump and then discharged to waste (an open-loop heat exchange system). The system performs with high thermal efficiency, but the drawbacks are: (1) it can only be operated when mine water is being actively pumped from the colliery shaft for the purposes of regional water-level management, and (2) the fact that the water is partially oxygenated means that iron oxyhydroxide precipitation occurs, necessitating regular removal of filters for cleaning. At Markham Colliery, near Bolsover, a small amount of mine water is pumped from depth in a flooded shaft, circulated through a heat exchanger coupled to a heat pump and then returned to the same mine shaft at a slightly different depth (a standing column arrangement). This system’s fundamental thermal efficiency is negatively impacted by the electrical power required to run the shaft submersible pump, but clogging issues are not significant. In the third system, at Caphouse, a heat exchanger is submerged in a mine water treatment pond (a closed-loop system). This can be run at any time, irrespective of mine pumping regime, and being a closed-loop system, is not susceptible to clogging issues

Does Discretion in Lending Increase Bank Risk? Borrower Self-Selection and Loan Officer Capture Effects

In this paper we analyze whether discretionary lending increases bank risk. We use a panel dataset of matched bank and borrower data. It offers the chief advantages that we can directly identify soft information in banks’ lending decisions and that we observe ex post defaults of borrowers.Consistent with the previous literature, we find that smaller banks use more discretion in lending. We also show that borrowers self-select to banks depending on whether their soft information is positive or negative. Financially riskier borrowers with positive soft information are more likely to obtain credit from relationship banks. Risky borrowers with negative soft information have the same chance to receive a loan from a relationship or a transaction bank. These selection effects are stronger in more competitive markets, as predicted by theory. However, while relationship banks have financially riskier borrowers, ex post default is not more probable compared to borrowers at transaction banks. As a consequence, relationship banks do not have higher credit risk levels. Loan officers at relationship banks thus do not use discretion in lending to grant loans to ex post riskier borrowers

Influence of electrolytes on liquid-liquid equilibria of water/1-butanol and on the partitioning of 5-hydroxymethylfurfural in water/1-butanol

The influence of electrolytes on liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) of water/1-butanol and on the partitioning of 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) between water-rich and 1-butanol-rich phases was investigated in this study. For that purpose, the LLE of the ternary systems water/1-butanol/HMF, water/1-butanol/salt, and the LLE of the quaternary system water/1-butanol/HMF/salt were measured at 298.15 K under atmospheric pressure. The investigated salts were composed of one of the anions Cl-, CH3COO-, NO3- and SO42- and either Li+ or Na+. By investigating the LLE of the system water/1-butanol/salt it was found that 1-butanol was salted-out from the aqueous phase by all salts, and the strength of the salting-out increased in the following order NO3- < CH3COO- approximate to Cl- < SO42-, independently of the cation. Based on the LLE data, the partition coefficient K-HMF(W) of HMF between 1-butanol and aqueous phase was determined. Li2SO4 caused a pronounced salting-out of HMF from the aqueous phase, whereas only a moderate influence was observed for NaCl and CH3COONa. LiCl even caused a salting-in at LiCl molalities above 6 mol/kg(H2O) electrolyte Perturbed-Chain Statistical Associating Fluid Theory (ePC-SAFT) was successfully used to model the influence of salts on the LLE water/1-butanol. Without fitting parameters to LLE data of the quaternary system water/1-butanol/HMF/salt, ePC-SAFT allowed predicting the salt influence on the partitioning of HMF in these systems in good agreement with the experimental data. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved