Scientific Sovereignty: Canada, the Carnegie Institution and the Earth's Magnetism in the North

In 1905, magnetic survey work began under the auspices of the Department of Terrestrial Magnetism of the Carnegie Institution of Washington directed by Louis Agricola Bauer. The DTI, wanting world-wide coverage, wished to make observations in Canada but this raised the question of sovereignty. Although the DTI was not a government agency, it was foreign. The impact of its work in Canada was to stimulate geophysical research by the Canadian Meteorological Service and by the Dominion Observatory. This research was undertaken in the context of interdepartmental rivalry which finally resulted in control of the field by the Dominion Observatory.Les travaux de mesure du champ magnétique terrestre débutèrent en 1905 sous les auspices du Department of Terrestrial Magnetism (DTI) de la Carnegie Institution of Washington sous la direction de Louis Agricola Bauer. Le DTI désireux de récolter des données à l’échelle mondiale, voulait effectuer des mesures au Canada, ce qui posait le problème de la souverainté du pays. Bien que le DTI ne fut pas une agence gouvernementale américaine, il était néanmoins étranger. L’effet de ses activités au Canada fut de stimuler la recherche géophysique au Service de météorologie du Canada et à l’Observatoire du Dominion. Ce projet fut entrepris dans un climat de rivalité interministérielle et eut pour résultat le contrôle du domaine par l’Observatoire du Dominion

Nonlinearity of ocean heat uptake during warming and cooling in the FAMOUS climate model

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to continue rising in the coming decades, but natural or artificial processes may eventually reduce it. We show that, in the FAMOUS atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, the reduction of ocean heat content as radiative forcing decreases is greater than would be expected from a linear model simulation of the response to the applied forcings. We relate this effect to the behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): the ocean cools more efficiently with a strong AMOC. The AMOC weakens as CO2 rises, then strengthens as CO2 declines, but temporarily overshoots its original strength. This nonlinearity comes mainly from the accumulated advection of salt into the North Atlantic, which gives the system a longer memory. This implies that changes observed in response to different CO2 scenarios or from different initial states, such as from past changes, may not be a reliable basis for making projections

nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0)

nonlinMIP provides experiments that account for state-dependent regional and global climate responses. The experiments have two main applications: (1) to focus understanding of responses to CO2 forcing on states relevant to specific policy or scientific questions (e.g. change under low-forcing scenarios, the benefits of mitigation, or from past cold climates to the present day), or (2) to understand the state dependence (non-linearity) of climate change – i.e. why doubling the forcing may not double the response. State dependence (non-linearity) of responses can be large at regional scales, with important implications for understanding mechanisms and for general circulation model (GCM) emulation techniques (e.g. energy balance models and pattern-scaling methods). However, these processes are hard to explore using traditional experiments, which explains why they have had so little attention in previous studies. Some single model studies have established novel analysis principles and some physical mechanisms. There is now a need to explore robustness and uncertainty in such mechanisms across a range of models (point 2 above), and, more broadly, to focus work on understanding the response to CO2 on climate states relevant to specific policy/science questions (point 1). nonlinMIP addresses this using a simple, small set of CO2-forced experiments that are able to separate linear and non-linear mechanisms cleanly, with a good signal-to-noise ratio – while being demonstrably traceable to realistic transient scenarios. The design builds on the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) protocols, and is centred around a suite of instantaneous atmospheric CO2 change experiments, with a ramp-up–ramp-down experiment to test traceability to gradual forcing scenarios. In all cases the models are intended to be used with CO2 concentrations rather than CO2 emissions as the input. The understanding gained will help interpret the spread in policy-relevant scenario projections. Here we outline the basic physical principles behind nonlinMIP, and the method of establishing traceability from abruptCO2 to gradual forcing experiments, before detailing the experimental design, and finally some analysis principles. The test of traceability from abruptCO2 to transient experiments is recommended as a standard analysis within the CMIP5 and CMIP6 DECK protocols

Contrasting prefrontal cortex contributions to episodic memory dysfunction in behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia and alzheimer's disease

Recent evidence has questioned the integrity of episodic memory in behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD), where recall performance is impaired to the same extent as in Alzheimer's disease (AD). While these deficits appear to be mediated by divergent patterns of brain atrophy, there is evidence to suggest that certain prefrontal regions are implicated across both patient groups. In this study we sought to further elucidate the dorsolateral (DLPFC) and ventromedial (VMPFC) prefrontal contributions to episodic memory impairment in bvFTD and AD. Performance on episodic memory tasks and neuropsychological measures typically tapping into either DLPFC or VMPFC functions was assessed in 22 bvFTD, 32 AD patients and 35 age- and education-matched controls. Behaviourally, patient groups did not differ on measures of episodic memory recall or DLPFC-mediated executive functions. BvFTD patients were significantly more impaired on measures of VMPFC-mediated executive functions. Composite measures of the recall, DLPFC and VMPFC task scores were covaried against the T1 MRI scans of all participants to identify regions of atrophy correlating with performance on these tasks. Imaging analysis showed that impaired recall performance is associated with divergent patterns of PFC atrophy in bvFTD and AD. Whereas in bvFTD, PFC atrophy covariates for recall encompassed both DLPFC and VMPFC regions, only the DLPFC was implicated in AD. Our results suggest that episodic memory deficits in bvFTD and AD are underpinned by divergent prefrontal mechanisms. Moreover, we argue that these differences are not adequately captured by existing neuropsychological measures

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/year compound increase in CO2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified

Persistent anthrax as a major driver of wildlife mortality in a tropical rainforest

Anthrax is a globally important animal disease and zoonosis. Despite this, our current knowledge of anthrax ecology is largely limited to arid ecosystems, where outbreaks are most commonly reported. Here we show that the dynamics of an anthrax-causing agent, Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis, in a tropical rainforest have severe consequences for local wildlife communities. Using data and samples collected over three decades, we show that rainforest anthrax is a persistent and widespread cause of death for a broad range of mammalian hosts. We predict that this pathogen will accelerate the decline and possibly result in the extirpation of local chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) populations. We present the epidemiology of a cryptic pathogen and show that its presence has important implications for conservation

Intercomparison and validation of the mixed layer depth fields of global ocean syntheses

Intercomparison and evaluation of the global ocean surface mixed layer depth (MLD) fields estimated from a suite of major ocean syntheses are conducted. Compared with the reference MLDs calculated from individual profiles, MLDs calculated from monthly mean and gridded profiles show negative biases of 10–20 m in early spring related to the re-stratification process of relatively deep mixed layers. Vertical resolution of profiles also influences the MLD estimation. MLDs are underestimated by approximately 5–7 (14–16) m with the vertical resolution of 25 (50) m when the criterion of potential density exceeding the 10-m value by 0.03 kg m−3 is used for the MLD estimation. Using the larger criterion (0.125 kg m−3) generally reduces the underestimations. In addition, positive biases greater than 100 m are found in wintertime subpolar regions when MLD criteria based on temperature are used. Biases of the reanalyses are due to both model errors and errors related to differences between the assimilation methods. The result shows that these errors are partially cancelled out through the ensemble averaging. Moreover, the bias in the ensemble mean field of the reanalyses is smaller than in the observation-only analyses. This is largely attributed to comparably higher resolutions of the reanalyses. The robust reproduction of both the seasonal cycle and interannual variability by the ensemble mean of the reanalyses indicates a great potential of the ensemble mean MLD field for investigating and monitoring upper ocean processes

Research priorities in the field of posttraumatic pain and disability: Results of a transdisciplinary consensus-generating workshop

© Copyright 2016 David M.Walton et al. Background. Chronic or persistent pain and disability following noncatastrophic \u27musculoskeletal\u27 (MSK) trauma is a pervasive public health problem. Recent intervention trials have provided little evidence of benefit from several specific treatments for preventing chronic problems. Such findings may appear to argue against formal targeted intervention for MSK traumas. However, these negative findings may reflect a lack of understanding of the causal mechanisms underlying the transition from acute to chronic pain, rendering informed and objective treatment decisions difficult. The Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) Institute ofMusculoskeletalHealth and Arthritis (IMHA) has recently identified better understanding of causalmechanisms as one of three priority foci of their most recent strategic plan. Objectives. A 2-day invitation-only active participation workshop was held inMarch 2015 that included 30 academics, clinicians, and consumers with the purpose of identifying consensus research priorities in the field of trauma-relatedMSK pain and disability, prediction, and prevention. Methods. Conversations were recorded, explored thematically, and member-checked for accuracy. Results. From the discussions, 13 themes were generated that ranged from a focus on identifying causal mechanisms and models to challenges with funding and patient engagement. Discussion. Novel priorities included the inclusion of consumer groups in research from the early conceptualization and design stages and interdisciplinary longitudinal studies that include evaluation of integrated phenotypes and mechanisms

Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948–2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected

Widespread Over-Expression of the X Chromosome in Sterile F1 Hybrid Mice

The X chromosome often plays a central role in hybrid male sterility between species, but it is unclear if this reflects underlying regulatory incompatibilities. Here we combine phenotypic data with genome-wide expression data to directly associate aberrant expression patterns with hybrid male sterility between two species of mice. We used a reciprocal cross in which F1 males are sterile in one direction and fertile in the other direction, allowing us to associate expression differences with sterility rather than with other hybrid phenotypes. We found evidence of extensive over-expression of the X chromosome during spermatogenesis in sterile but not in fertile F1 hybrid males. Over-expression was most pronounced in genes that are normally expressed after meiosis, consistent with an X chromosome-wide disruption of expression during the later stages of spermatogenesis. This pattern was not a simple consequence of faster evolutionary divergence on the X chromosome, because X-linked expression was highly conserved between the two species. Thus, transcriptional regulation of the X chromosome during spermatogenesis appears particularly sensitive to evolutionary divergence between species. Overall, these data provide evidence for an underlying regulatory basis to reproductive isolation in house mice and underscore the importance of transcriptional regulation of the X chromosome to the evolution of hybrid male sterility