Assessing the causal effects of a stochastic intervention in time series data: Are heat alerts effective in preventing deaths and hospitalizations?

We introduce a new causal inference framework for time series data aimed at assessing the effectiveness of heat alerts in reducing mortality and hospitalization risks. We are interested in addressing the following question: how many deaths and hospitalizations could be averted if we were to increase the frequency of issuing heat alerts in a given location? In the context of time series data, the overlap assumption - each unit must have a positive probability of receiving the treatment - is often violated. This is because, in a given location, issuing a heat alert is a rare event on an average temperature day as heat alerts are almost always issued on extremely hot days. To overcome this challenge, first we introduce a new class of causal estimands under a stochastic intervention (i.e., increasing the odds of issuing a heat alert) for a single time series corresponding to a given location. We develop the theory to show that these causal estimands can be identified and estimated under a weaker version of the overlap assumption. Second, we propose nonparametric estimators based on time-varying propensity scores, and derive point-wise confidence bands for these estimators. Third, we extend this framework to multiple time series corresponding to multiple locations. Via simulations, we show that the proposed estimator has good performance with respect to bias and root mean squared error. We apply our proposed method to estimate the causal effects of increasing the odds of issuing heat alerts in reducing deaths and hospitalizations among Medicare enrollees in 2817 U.S. counties. We found weak evidence of a causal link between increasing the odds of issuing heat alerts during the warm seasons of 2006-2016 and a reduction in deaths and cause-specific hospitalizations across the 2817 counties.Comment: 31 pages, 5 figures, 2 table

Non-Gaussian Correlations in the McLerran-Venugopalan Model

We argue that the statistical weight function W[rho] appearing in the McLerran-Venugopalan model of a large nucleus is intrinsically non-Gaussian, even if we neglect quantum corrections. Based on the picture where the nucleus of radius R consists of a collection of color-neutral nucleons, each of radius a<<R, we show that to leading order in alpha_s and a/R only the Gaussian part of W[rho] enters into the final expression for the gluon number density. Thus, the existing results in the literature which assume a Gaussian weight remain valid.Comment: 21 pages with 4 figures (revtex

Form factor for a family of quantum graphs: An expansion to third order

For certain types of quantum graphs we show that the random-matrix form factor can be recovered to at least third order in the scaled time $\tau$ from periodic-orbit theory. We consider the contributions from pairs of periodic orbits represented by diagrams with up to two self-intersections connected by up to four arcs and explain why all other diagrams are expected to give higher-order corrections only. For a large family of graphs with ergodic classical dynamics the diagrams that exist in the absence of time-reversal symmetry sum to zero. The mechanism for this cancellation is rather general which suggests that it may also apply at higher-orders in the expansion. This expectation is in full agreement with the fact that in this case the linear-$\tau$ contribution, the diagonal approximation, already reproduces the random-matrix form factor for $\tau<1$. For systems with time-reversal symmetry there are more diagrams which contribute at third order. We sum these contributions for quantum graphs with uniformly hyperbolic dynamics, obtaining $+2\tau^{3}$, in agreement with random-matrix theory. As in the previous calculation of the leading-order correction to the diagonal approximation we find that the third order contribution can be attributed to exceptional orbits representing the intersection of diagram classes.Comment: 23 pages (including 4 fig.) - numerous typos correcte

The NASA-UC-UH Eta-Earth Program: IV. A Low-mass Planet Orbiting an M Dwarf 3.6 PC from Earth

We report the discovery of a low-mass planet orbiting Gl 15 A based on radial velocities from the Eta-Earth Survey using HIRES at Keck Observatory. Gl 15 Ab is a planet with minimum mass Msini = 5.35 $\pm$ 0.75 M$_\oplus$, orbital period P = 11.4433 $\pm$ 0.0016 days, and an orbit that is consistent with circular. We characterize the host star using a variety of techniques. Photometric observations at Fairborn Observatory show no evidence for rotational modulation of spots at the orbital period to a limit of ~0.1 mmag, thus supporting the existence of the planet. We detect a second RV signal with a period of 44 days that we attribute to rotational modulation of stellar surface features, as confirmed by optical photometry and the Ca II H & K activity indicator. Using infrared spectroscopy from Palomar-TripleSpec, we measure an M2 V spectral type and a sub-solar metallicity ([M/H] = -0.22, [Fe/H] = -0.32). We measure a stellar radius of 0.3863 $\pm$ 0.0021 R$_\odot$ based on interferometry from CHARA.Comment: ApJ accepted, 11 pages, 8 figures, 3 table

On Superspace Chern-Simons-like Terms

We search for superspace Chern-Simons-like higher-derivative terms in the low energy effective actions of supersymmetric theories in four dimensions. Superspace Chern-Simons-like terms are those gauge-invariant terms which cannot be written solely in terms of field strength superfields and covariant derivatives, but in which a gauge potential superfield appears explicitly. We find one class of such four-derivative terms with N=2 supersymmetry which, though locally on the Coulomb branch can be written solely in terms of field strengths, globally cannot be. These terms are classified by certain Dolbeault cohomology classes on the moduli space. We include a discussion of other examples of terms in the effective action involving global obstructions on the Coulomb branch.Comment: 23 pages; a reference and an author email correcte

Touchstone Stars: Highlights from the Cool Stars 18 Splinter Session

We present a summary of the splinter session on "touchstone stars" -- stars with directly measured parameters -- that was organized as part of the Cool Stars 18 conference. We discuss several methods to precisely determine cool star properties such as masses and radii from eclipsing binaries, and radii and effective temperatures from interferometry. We highlight recent results in identifying and measuring parameters for touchstone stars, and ongoing efforts to use touchstone stars to determine parameters for other stars. We conclude by comparing the results of touchstone stars with cool star models, noting some unusual patterns in the differences.Comment: Proceedings of the 18th Cambridge Workshop on Cool Stars, Stellar Systems, and the Sun, Eds G. van Belle & H. Harri

Improved Orbital Parameters and Transit Monitoring for HD 156846b

HD 156846b is a Jovian planet in a highly eccentric orbit (e = 0.85) with a period of 359.55 days. The pericenter passage at a distance of 0.16 AU is nearly aligned to our line of sight, offering an enhanced transit probability of 5.4% and a potentially rich probe of the dynamics of a cool planetary atmosphere impulsively heated during close approach to a bright star (V = 6.5). We present new radial velocity (RV) and photometric measurements of this star as part of the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS). The RV measurements from Keck-HIRES reduce the predicted transit time uncertainty to 20 minutes, an order of magnitude improvement over the ephemeris from the discovery paper. We photometrically monitored a predicted transit window under relatively poor photometric conditions, from which our non-detection does not rule out a transiting geometry. We also present photometry that demonstrates stability at the millimag level over its rotational timescale.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

The HD 192263 system: planetary orbital period and stellar variability disentangled

As part of the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS), we present new radial velocities and photometry of the HD 192263 system. Our analysis of the already available Keck-HIRES and CORALIE radial velocity measurements together with the five new Keck measurements we report in this paper results in improved orbital parameters for the system. We derive constraints on the size and phase location of the transit window for HD 192263b, a Jupiter-mass planet with a period of 24.3587 \pm 0.0022 days. We use 10 years of Automated Photoelectric Telescope (APT) photometry to analyze the stellar variability and search for planetary transits. We find continuing evidence of spot activity with periods near 23.4 days. The shape of the corresponding photometric variations changes over time, giving rise to not one but several Fourier peaks near this value. However, none of these frequencies coincides with the planet's orbital period and thus we find no evidence of star-planet interactions in the system. We attribute the ~23-day variability to stellar rotation. There are also indications of spot variations on longer (8 years) timescales. Finally, we use the photometric data to exclude transits for a planet with the predicted radius of 1.09 RJ, and as small as 0.79 RJ.Comment: 9 pages, 6 tables, 6 figures; accepted to Ap