Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future

Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future

Nonthermal Supermassive Dark Matter

We discuss several cosmological production mechanisms for nonthermal supermassive dark matter and argue that dark matter may be elementary particles of mass much greater than the weak scale. Searches for dark matter should not be limited to weakly interacting particles with mass of the order of the weak scale, but should extend into the supermassive range as well.Comment: 11 page LaTeX file. No major changes. Version accepted by PR

Die transnationale Ordnung globalisierter Finanzmärkte. Was lehrt uns die Krise?

Die Krise der Finanzmärkte, die 2007 begann, hat die meisten Politiker und Wissenschaftler überrascht. In der Soziologie haben, wie in der Wirtschaftswissenschaft, vor 2007 nur Wenige das Krisenpotenzial erkannt, das in der Beschaffenheit des modernen Finanzsystems liegt. Unter dem dominanten Einfluss der liberalen Neoklassik in der ökonomischen Theorie wurde weithin geglaubt, dass Märkte im Allgemeinen und damit auch Finanzmärkte sich selbst regeln. Die Finanzkrise und ihre Folgen haben hier zu einem Umdenken geführt. Inzwischen besteht unter Wissenschaftlern und Politikern ein breiter Konsens, dass Defizite der Regulierung für die krisenhafte Entwicklung im globalen Finanzsystem mit verantwortlich waren. Da die Finanzmärkte globalisiert sind und die Krise als eine globale wahrgenommen wurde, wurde allgemein eine Neuregelung durch Vereinbarungen auf internationaler Ebene verlangt, um künftigen Krisen vorzubauen

Probing Planckian physics: resonant production of particles during inflation and features in the primordial power spectrum

The phenomenon of resonant production of particles {\it after} inflation has received much attention in the past few years. In a new application of resonant production of particles, we consider the effect of a resonance {\em during} inflation. We show that if the inflaton is coupled to a massive particle, resonant production of the particle during inflation modifies the evolution of the inflaton, and may leave an imprint in the form of sharp features in the primordial power spectrum. Precision measurements of microwave background anisotropies and large-scale structure surveys could be sensitive to the features, and probe the spectrum of particles as massive as the Planck scale.Comment: 19 pages, 11 eps figure

Male Choice in the Stream-Anadromous Stickleback Complex

Studies of mating preferences and pre-mating reproductive isolation have often focused on females, but the potential importance of male preferences is increasingly appreciated. We investigated male behavior in the context of reproductive isolation between divergent anadromous and stream-resident populations of threespine stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus, using size-manipulated females of both ecotypes. Specifically, we asked if male courtship preferences are present, and if they are based on relative body size, non-size aspects of ecotype, or other traits. Because male behaviors were correlated with each other, we conducted a principal components analysis on the correlations and ran subsequent analyses on the principal components. The two male ecotypes differed in overall behavioral frequencies, with stream-resident males exhibiting consistently more vigorous and positive courtship than anadromous males, and an otherwise aggressive behavior playing a more positive role in anadromous than stream-resident courtship. We observed more vigorous courtship toward smaller females by (relatively small) stream-resident males and the reverse pattern for (relatively large) anadromous males. Thus size-assortative male courtship preferences may contribute to reproductive isolation in this system, although preferences are far from absolute. We found little indication of males responding preferentially to females of their own ecotype independent of body size

Rare variant analyses validate known ALS genes in a multi-ethnic population and identifies ANTXR2 as a candidate in PLS

BackgroundAmyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease affecting over 300,000 people worldwide. It is characterized by the progressive decline of the nervous system that leads to the weakening of muscles which impacts physical function. Approximately, 15% of individuals diagnosed with ALS have a known genetic variant that contributes to their disease. As therapies that slow or prevent symptoms continue to develop, such as antisense oligonucleotides, it is important to discover novel genes that could be targets for treatment. Additionally, as cohorts continue to grow, performing analyses in ALS subtypes, such as primary lateral sclerosis (PLS), becomes possible due to an increase in power. These analyses could highlight novel pathways in disease manifestation.MethodsBuilding on our previous discoveries using rare variant association analyses, we conducted rare variant burden testing on a substantially larger multi-ethnic cohort of 6,970 ALS patients, 166 PLS patients, and 22,524 controls. We used intolerant domain percentiles based on sub-region Residual Variation Intolerance Score (subRVIS) that have been described previously in conjunction with gene based collapsing approaches to conduct burden testing to identify genes that associate with ALS and PLS.ResultsA gene based collapsing model showed significant associations with SOD1, TARDBP, and TBK1 (OR = 19.18, p = 3.67 × 10–39; OR = 4.73, p = 2 × 10–10; OR = 2.3, p = 7.49 × 10–9, respectively). These genes have been previously associated with ALS. Additionally, a significant novel control enriched gene, ALKBH3 (p = 4.88 × 10–7), was protective for ALS in this model. An intolerant domain-based collapsing model showed a significant improvement in identifying regions in TARDBP that associated with ALS (OR = 10.08, p = 3.62 × 10–16). Our PLS protein truncating variant collapsing analysis demonstrated significant case enrichment in ANTXR2 (p = 8.38 × 10–6).ConclusionsIn a large multi-ethnic cohort of 6,970 ALS patients, collapsing analyses validated known ALS genes and identified a novel potentially protective gene, ALKBH3. A first-ever analysis in 166 patients with PLS found a candidate association with loss-of-function mutations in ANTXR2

Consensus guidelines for the definition of time-to-event end points in image-guided tumor ablation: results of the SIO and DATECAN initiative

International audienceThere is currently no consensus regarding preferred clinical outcome measures following image-guided tumor ablation or clear definitions of oncologic end points. This consensus document proposes standardized definitions for a broad range of oncologic outcome measures with recommendations on how to uniformly document, analyze, and report outcomes. The initiative was coordinated by the Society of Interventional Oncology in collaboration with the Definition for the Assessment of Time-to-Event End Points in Cancer Trials, or DATECAN, group. According to predefined criteria, based on experience with clinical trials, an international panel of 62 experts convened. Recommendations were developed using the validated three-step modified Delphi consensus method. Consensus was reached on when to assess outcomes per patient, per session, or per tumor; on starting and ending time and survival time definitions; and on time-to-event end points. Although no consensus was reached on the preferred classification system to report complications, quality of life, and health economics issues, the panel did agree on using the most recent version of a validated patient-reported outcome questionnaire. This article provides a framework of key opinion leader recommendations with the intent to facilitate a clear interpretation of results and standardize worldwide communication. Widespread adoption will improve reproducibility, allow for accurate comparisons, and avoid misinterpretations in the field of interventional oncology research. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license. Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Liddell in this issue