Using Non-Parametric Tests to Evaluate Traffic Forecasting Performance.

This paper proposes the use of a number of nonparametric comparison methods for evaluating traffic flow forecasting techniques. The advantage to these methods is that they are free of any distributional assumptions and can be legitimately used on small datasets. To demonstrate the applicability of these tests, a number of models for the forecasting of traffic flows are developed. The one-step-ahead forecasts produced are then assessed using nonparametric methods. Consideration is given as to whether a method is universally good or good at reproducing a particular aspect of the original series. That choice will be dictated, to a degree, by the user’s purpose for assessing traffic flow

Approximate k-state solutions to the Dirac-Yukawa problem based on the spin and pseudospin symmetry

Using an approximation scheme to deal with the centrifugal (pseudo-centrifugal) term, we solve the Dirac equation with the screened Coulomb (Yukawa) potential for any arbitrary spin-orbit quantum number {\kappa}. Based on the spin and pseudospin symmetry, analytic bound state energy spectrum formulas and their corresponding upper- and lower-spinor components of two Dirac particles are obtained using a shortcut of the Nikiforov-Uvarov method. We find a wide range of permissible values for the spin symmetry constant C_{s} from the valence energy spectrum of particle and also for pseudospin symmetry constant C_{ps} from the hole energy spectrum of antiparticle. Further, we show that the present potential interaction becomes less (more) attractive for a long (short) range screening parameter {\alpha}. To remove the degeneracies in energy levels we consider the spin and pseudospin solution of Dirac equation for Yukawa potential plus a centrifugal-like term. A few special cases such as the exact spin (pseudospin) symmetry Dirac-Yukawa, the Yukawa plus centrifugal-like potentials, the limit when {\alpha} becomes zero (Coulomb potential field) and the non-relativistic limit of our solution are studied. The nonrelativistic solutions are compared with those obtained by other methods.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figure

Comparison of the biotypes of Yersinia enterocolitica isolated from pigs, cattle and sheep at slaughter and from humans with yersiniosis in Great Britain during 1999-2000

Aims: To investigate the relationship between livestock carriage of Yersinia enterocolitica and human disease. The biotypes/serotypes of strains recovered from the faeces of pigs, cattle and sheep at slaughter during a national survey in Great Britain in 1999-2000, were compared with those of strains isolated from human cases of yersiniosis during the same period. Methods and Results: The faecal carriage of Y. enterocolitica by cattle, sheep and pigs at slaughter was 6.3, 10.7 and 26.1%, respectively. Yersinia enterocolitica biotype (BT) 1a was the most frequently isolated biotype from livestock (58%) and was the predominant biotype (53%) isolated from human cases over the same period. The main recognized pathogenic Y. enterocolitica biotype isolated from livestock was BT3 (O:5,27) (35% of sheep, 22% of pigs and 4% of cattle) but this biotype was not detected in any of the human isolates investigated. The major pathogenic biotypes of strains isolated from humans were BT3 (O:9) (24%) and BT4 (O:3) (19%) whereas of the veterinary isolates investigated, only pigs (11%) carried BT3 (O:9) strains. Conclusions: Because of significant overlaps in phenotypes of the veterinary and human strains it is not possible to comment on the correlation between host and pathogenicity, especially of biotype 1a. Significance and Impact of the Study: The data suggest that further investigations using methods with greater discriminatory power are required. However the data also suggests that pigs may be the primary reservoir for human pathogenic Y. enterocolitica infection

Three electron beams from a laser-plasma wakefield accelerator and the energy apportioning question

Laser-wakefield accelerators are compact devices capable of delivering ultra-short electron bunches with pC-level charge and MeV-GeV energy by exploiting the ultra-high electric fields arising from the interaction of intense laser pulses with plasma. We show experimentally and through numerical simulations that a high-energy electron beam is produced simultaneously with two stable lower-energy beams that are ejected in oblique and counter-propagating directions, typically carrying off 5-10% of the initial laser energy. A MeV, 10s nC oblique beam is ejected in a 30-60 degree hollow cone, which is filled with more energetic electrons determined by the injection dynamics. A nC-level, 100s keV backward-directed beam is mainly produced at the leading edge of the plasma column. We discuss the apportioning of absorbed laser energy amongst the three beams. Knowledge of the distribution of laser energy and electron beam charge, which determine the overall efficiency, is important for various applications of laser-wakefield accelerators, including the development of staged high-energy accelerators

Wide-angle electron beams from laser-wakefield accelerators

Advances in laser technology have driven the development of laser-wakefield accelerators, compact devices that are capable of accelerating electrons to GeV energies over centimetre distances by exploiting the strong electric field gradients arising from the interaction of intense laser pulses with an underdense plasma. A side-effect of this acceleration mechanism is the production of high-charge, low-energy electron beams at wide angles. Here we present an experimental and numerical study of the properties of these wide-angle electron beams, and show that they carry off a significant fraction of the energy transferred from the laser to the plasma. These high-charge, wide-angle beams can also cause damage to laser-wakefield accelerators based on capillaries, as well as become source of unwanted bremsstrahlung radiation

Collisions of particles in locally AdS spacetimes I. Local description and global examples

We investigate 3-dimensional globally hyperbolic AdS manifolds containing "particles", i.e., cone singularities along a graph $\Gamma$. We impose physically relevant conditions on the cone singularities, e.g. positivity of mass (angle less than $2\pi$ on time-like singular segments). We construct examples of such manifolds, describe the cone singularities that can arise and the way they can interact (the local geometry near the vertices of $\Gamma$). We then adapt to this setting some notions like global hyperbolicity which are natural for Lorentz manifolds, and construct some examples of globally hyperbolic AdS manifolds with interacting particles.Comment: This is a rewritten version of the first part of arxiv:0905.1823. That preprint was too long and contained two types of results, so we sliced it in two. This is the first part. Some sections have been completely rewritten so as to be more readable, at the cost of slightly less general statements. Others parts have been notably improved to increase readabilit

Domain Growth and Finite-Size-Scaling in the Kinetic Ising Model

This paper describes the application of finite-size scaling concepts to domain growth in systems with a non-conserved order parameter. A finite-size scaling ansatz for the time-dependent order parameter distribution function is proposed, and tested with extensive Monte-Carlo simulations of domain growth in the 2-D spin-flip kinetic Ising model. The scaling properties of the distribution functions serve to elucidate the configurational self-similarity that underlies the dynamic scaling picture. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the application of finite-size-scaling techniques facilitates the accurate determination of the bulk growth exponent even in the presence of strong finite-size effects, the scale and character of which are graphically exposed by the order parameter distribution function. In addition it is found that one commonly used measure of domain size--the scaled second moment of the magnetisation distribution--belies the full extent of these finite-size effects.Comment: 13 pages, Latex. Figures available on request. Rep #9401

Patient use of blood pressure self-screening facilities in general practice waiting rooms: a qualitative study in the UK

Background Blood pressure (BP) self-screening, whereby members of the public have access to BP monitoring equipment outside of healthcare consultations, may increase the detection and treatment of hypertension. Currently in the UK such opportunities are largely confined to GP waiting rooms.Aim To investigate the reasons why people do or do not use BP self-screening facilities.Design and setting A cross-sectional, qualitative study in Oxfordshire, UK.Method Semi-structured interviews with members of the general public recruited using posters in GP surgeries and community locations were recorded, transcribed, and coded thematically.Results Of the 30 interviewees, 20% were hypertensive and almost half had self-screened. Those with no history of elevated readings had limited concern over their BP: self-screening filled the time waiting for their appointment or was done to help their doctor. Patients with hypertension self-screened to avoid the feelings they associated with ‘white coat syndrome’ and to introduce more control into the measurement process. Barriers to self-screening included a lack of awareness, uncertainty about technique, and worries over measuring BP in a public place. An unanticipated finding was that several interviewees preferred monitoring their BP in the waiting room than at home.Conclusion BP self-screening appeared acceptable to service users. Further promotion and education could increase awareness among non-users of the need for BP screening, the existence of self-screening facilities, and its ease of use. Waiting room monitors could provide an alternative for patients with hypertension who are unwilling or unable to monitor at home

Quantum Attractor Flows

Motivated by the interpretation of the Ooguri-Strominger-Vafa conjecture as a holographic correspondence in the mini-superspace approximation, we study the radial quantization of stationary, spherically symmetric black holes in four dimensions. A key ingredient is the classical equivalence between the radial evolution equation and geodesic motion of a fiducial particle on the moduli space M^*_3 of the three-dimensional theory after reduction along the time direction. In the case of N=2 supergravity, M^*_3 is a para-quaternionic-Kahler manifold; in this case, we show that BPS black holes correspond to a particular class of geodesics which lift holomorphically to the twistor space Z of M^*_3, and identify Z as the BPS phase space. We give a natural quantization of the BPS phase space in terms of the sheaf cohomology of Z, and compute the exact wave function of a BPS black hole with fixed electric and magnetic charges in this framework. We comment on the relation to the topological string amplitude, extensions to N>2 supergravity theories, and applications to automorphic black hole partition functions.Comment: 43 pages, 6 figures; v2: typos and references added; v3: published version, minor change

The association of smoking and socioeconomic status on cutaneous melanoma: a population‐based, data‐linkage, case–control study

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have identified an inverse association between melanoma and smoking; however, data from population-based studies are scarce. OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between smoking and socioeconomic (SES) on the risk of development of melanoma. Furthermore, we sought to determine the implications of smoking and SES on survival. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study. Cases were identified from the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit (WCISU) during 2000-2015 and controls from the general population. Smoking and SES were obtained from data linkage with other national databases. The association of smoking status and SES on the incidence of melanoma were assessed using binary logistic regression. Multivariate survival analysis was performed on a melanoma cohort using a Cox proportional hazard model using survival as the outcome. RESULTS: During 2000-2015, 9636 patients developed melanoma. Smoking data were obtained for 7124 (73·9%) of these patients. There were 26 408 controls identified from the general population. Smoking was inversely associated with melanoma incidence [odds ratio (OR) 0·70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·65-0·76]. Smoking was associated with an increased overall mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1·30, 95% CI 1·09-1·55], but not associated with melanoma-specific mortality. Patients with higher SES had an increased association with melanoma incidence (OR 1·58, 95% CI 1·44-1·73). Higher SES was associated with an increased chance of both overall (HR 0·67, 95% CI 0·56-0·81) and disease-specific survival (HR 0·69, 95% CI 0·53-0·90). CONCLUSIONS: Our study has demonstrated that smoking appeared to be associated with reduced incidence of melanoma. Although smoking increases overall mortality, no association was observed with melanoma-specific mortality. Further work is required to determine if there is a biological mechanism underlying this relationship or an alternative explanation, such as survival bias. What's already known about this topic? Previous studies have been contradictory with both negative and positive associations between smoking and the incidence of melanoma reported. Previous studies have either been limited by publication bias because of selective reporting or underpowered. What does this study add? Our large study identified an inverse association between smoking status and melanoma incidence. Although smoking status was negatively associated with overall disease survival, no significant association was noted in melanoma-specific survival. Socioeconomic status remains closely associated with melanoma. Although higher socioeconomic populations are more likely to develop the disease, patients with lower socioeconomic status continue to have a worse prognosis