Existing Empirical Fragility and Vulnerability Functions: Compendium and Guide for Selection

This document reviews existing empirical vulnerability and fragility functions worldwide collected until April 2014 in terms of their characteristics, data sources, and statistical modelling techniques. A qualitative rating system is described and applied to all reviewed functions to aid users to choose between existing functions for use in seismic risk assessments. The MS Access database developed by GEM VEM of all reviewed empirical functions and associated ratings is also described in this document. The database may be freely downloaded and includes all existing empirical vulnerability and fragility functions

Guidelines for the empirical vulnerability assessment

These Guidelines provide state-of-the-art guidance on the construction of vulnerability relationships from post-earthquake survey data. The Guidelines build on and extend procedures for empirical fragility and vulnerability curve construction found in the literature, and present a flexible framework for the construction of these relationships that allows for a number of curve-fitting methods and ground motion intensity measure types (IMTs) to be adopted. The philosophy behind the design of the framework is that the characteristics of the data should determine the most appropriate statistical model and intensity measure type used to represent them. Hence, several combinations of these must be trialled in the determination of an optimum fragility or vulnerability curve, where the optimum curve is defined by the statistical model that provides the best fit to the data as determined by a number of goodness-of-fit tests. The Guidelines are essentially a roadmap for the process, providing recommendations and help in deciding which statistical model to attempt, and promote trialling of models and IMTs. The Guidelines are targeted at analysts with Master’s level training in a numerate subject that includes some level of statistics. The Authors recognise that the statistical analysis understanding of analysts varies. To accommodate for these differences, two levels of statistical approaches for constructing empirical fragility functions that include procedures of increasing complexity, are proposed. All stages of the fragility and vulnerability curve construction are reviewed and presented in the Guidelines with practical advice given for the preparation of empirical data for use in the construction of these curves, for the identification of sources of uncertainty in the data and in the chosen intensity measures, and where possible, for uncertainty quantification and modelling. To facilitate adoption of the Guidelines, the code and commands required for the implementation of the described statistical models are provided for the open source software R (2008). Appendices B to G also provide example applications of the guidelines, where each step of the guideline is illustrated for empirical datasets deriving from the 1980 Irpinia, Italy, earthquake, the 1978 Thessaloniki, Greece, Earthquake, the 1989 Newcastle and 2010 Kalgoorlie, Australia, earthquakes and for two earthquakes that affected the town of Christchurch New Zealand in 2010 and 2011. The fragility and vulnerability curves developed from these applications are all presented using a reporting template (presented in Appendix A) designed to facilitate the evaluation and inclusion of empirical fragility curves derived using these Guidelines into the Global Earthquake Model (GEM)

An Infinite-Dimensional Family of Black-Hole Microstate Geometries

We construct the first explicit, smooth, horizonless black-hole microstate geometry whose moduli space is described by an arbitrary function of one variable and is thus infinite-dimensional. This is achieved by constructing the scalar Green function on a simple D6 anti-D6 background, and using this Green function to obtain the fully back-reacted solution for a supertube with varying charge density in this background. We show that this supertube can store parametrically more entropy than in flat space, confirming the entropy enhancement mechanism that was predicted using brane probes. We also show that all the local properties of the fully back-reacted solution can, in fact, be obtained using the DBI action of an appropriate brane probe. In particular, the supergravity and the DBI analysis yield identical functional bubble equations that govern the relative locations of the centers. This indicates that there is a non-renormalization theorem that protects these functional equations as one moves in moduli space. Our construction creates configurations that are beyond the scope of recent arguments that appear to put strong limits on the entropy that can be found in smooth supergravity solutions.Comment: 46 pages, 1 figure, LaTe

Estimating the returns to UK publicly funded cancer-related research in terms of the net value of improved health outcomes

© 2014 Glover et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Background - Building on an approach developed to assess the economic returns to cardiovascular research, we estimated the economic returns from UK public and charitable funded cancer-related research that arise from the net value of the improved health outcomes. Methods - To assess these economic returns from cancer-related research in the UK we estimated: 1) public and charitable expenditure on cancer-related research in the UK from 1970 to 2009; 2) net monetary benefit (NMB), that is, the health benefit measured in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) valued in monetary terms (using a base-case value of a QALY of GB£25,000) minus the cost of delivering that benefit, for a prioritised list of interventions from 1991 to 2010; 3) the proportion of NMB attributable to UK research; 4) the elapsed time between research funding and health gain; and 5) the internal rate of return (IRR) from cancer-related research investments on health benefits. We analysed the uncertainties in the IRR estimate using sensitivity analyses to illustrate the effect of some key parameters. Results - In 2011/12 prices, total expenditure on cancer-related research from 1970 to 2009 was £15 billion. The NMB of the 5.9 million QALYs gained from the prioritised interventions from 1991 to 2010 was £124 billion. Calculation of the IRR incorporated an estimated elapsed time of 15 years. We related 17% of the annual NMB estimated to be attributable to UK research (for each of the 20 years 1991 to 2010) to 20 years of research investment 15 years earlier (that is, for 1976 to 1995). This produced a best-estimate IRR of 10%, compared with 9% previously estimated for cardiovascular disease research. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated the importance of smoking reduction as a major source of improved cancer-related health outcomes. Conclusions - We have demonstrated a substantive IRR from net health gain to public and charitable funding of cancer-related research in the UK, and further validated the approach that we originally used in assessing the returns from cardiovascular research. In doing so, we have highlighted a number of weaknesses and key assumptions that need strengthening in further investigations. Nevertheless, these cautious estimates demonstrate that the returns from past cancer research have been substantial, and justify the investments made during the period 1976 to 1995.Wellcome Trust, Cancer Research UK, the National Institute of Health Research, and the Academy of Medical Sciences

3-D Ultrastructure of O. tauri: Electron Cryotomography of an Entire Eukaryotic Cell

The hallmark of eukaryotic cells is their segregation of key biological functions into discrete, membrane-bound organelles. Creating accurate models of their ultrastructural complexity has been difficult in part because of the limited resolution of light microscopy and the artifact-prone nature of conventional electron microscopy. Here we explored the potential of the emerging technology electron cryotomography to produce three-dimensional images of an entire eukaryotic cell in a near-native state. Ostreococcus tauri was chosen as the specimen because as a unicellular picoplankton with just one copy of each organelle, it is the smallest known eukaryote and was therefore likely to yield the highest resolution images. Whole cells were imaged at various stages of the cell cycle, yielding 3-D reconstructions of complete chloroplasts, mitochondria, endoplasmic reticula, Golgi bodies, peroxisomes, microtubules, and putative ribosome distributions in-situ. Surprisingly, the nucleus was seen to open long before mitosis, and while one microtubule (or two in some predivisional cells) was consistently present, no mitotic spindle was ever observed, prompting speculation that a single microtubule might be sufficient to segregate multiple chromosomes

Multiple ITS Copies Reveal Extensive Hybridization within Rheum (Polygonaceae), a Genus That Has Undergone Rapid Radiation

During adaptive radiation events, characters can arise multiple times due to parallel evolution, but transfer of traits through hybridization provides an alternative explanation for the same character appearing in apparently non-sister lineages. The signature of hybridization can be detected in incongruence between phylogenies derived from different markers, or from the presence of two divergent versions of a nuclear marker such as ITS within one individual.In this study, we cloned and sequenced ITS regions for 30 species of the genus Rheum, and compared them with a cpDNA phylogeny. Seven species contained two divergent copies of ITS that resolved in different clades from one another in each case, indicating hybridization events too recent for concerted evolution to have homogenised the ITS sequences. Hybridization was also indicated in at least two further species via incongruence in their position between ITS and cpDNA phylogenies. None of the ITS sequences present in these nine species matched those detected in any other species, which provides tentative evidence against recent introgression as an explanation. Rheum globulosum, previously indicated by cpDNA to represent an independent origin of decumbent habit, is indicated by ITS to be part of clade of decumbent species, which acquired cpDNA of another clade via hybridization. However decumbent and glasshouse morphology are confirmed to have arisen three and two times, respectively.These findings suggested that hybridization among QTP species of Rheum has been extensive, and that a role of hybridization in diversification of Rheum requires investigation

Thinking dispositions for teaching : enabling and supporting resilience in context

Preparing pre-teachers for an increasingly challenging teaching profession is a complex work and requires teacher educators to engage in the careful design of both programmes and professional learning opportunities. This chapter explores how an explicit focus on thinking dispositions that enable effective teaching are developed in a Master of Teaching (Secondary) programme. This programme, delivered on-site at a secondary school, included carefully constructed teaching opportunities to support development of thinking dispositions. Ways of thinking and the impact they have on feelings, actions and beliefs will be examined along with how the implementation of our thinking dispositions framework supports the development of resilience in challenging teaching and learning contexts