The history of historical earthquake research in Germany

The paper summarizes the history of collecting and evaluating information on earthquakes in Germany. A rich literature mentioning historical and contemporary earthquakes has existed since the 16th century. Early earthquake catalogues began to appear in the middle of the 16th century, some of which report earthquakes in Germany dating back to the 9th century. Modern seismological views were introduced in connection with intense philosophical analysis of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake, which was largely observed in Central Europe. The 19th century was characterized by a tremendous increase in detailed earthquake studies as well as earthquake compilations in the form of catalogues. The most comprehensive non-parametric catalogues were created in the middle of the 20th century, while the first digital parametric catalogues were published in the 1980s. This was also the time when critical studies on the re-interpretation of historical earthquakes began. Only in the 1990s was such analysis made in a systematic manner resulting in numerous publications and the current development of a modern earthquake catalogue

Seismic risk mapping for Germany

International audienceThe aim of this study is to assess and map the seismic risk for Germany, restricted to the expected losses of damage to residential buildings. There are several earthquake prone regions in the country which have produced Mw magnitudes above 6 and up to 6.7 corresponding to observed ground shaking intensity up to VIII?IX (EMS-98). Combined with the fact that some of the earthquake prone areas are densely populated and highly industrialized and where therefore the hazard coincides with high concentration of exposed assets, the damaging implications from earthquakes must be taken seriously. In this study a methodology is presented and pursued to calculate the seismic risk from (1) intensity based probabilistic seismic hazard, (2) vulnerability composition models, which are based on the distribution of residential buildings of various structural types in representative communities and (3) the distribution of assets in terms of replacement costs for residential buildings. The estimates of the risk are treated as primary economic losses due to structural damage to residential buildings. The obtained results are presented as maps of the damage and risk distributions. For a probability level of 90% non-exceedence in 50 years (corresponding to a mean return period of 475 years) the mean damage ratio is up to 20% and the risk up to hundreds of millions of euro in the most endangered communities. The developed models have been calibrated with observed data from several damaging earthquakes in Germany and the nearby area in the past 30 years

Interpreting intraplate tectonics for seismic hazard : a UK historical perspective

It is notoriously difficult to construct seismic source models for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in intraplate areas on the basis of geological information, and many practitioners have given up the task in favour of purely seismicity-based models. This risks losing potentially valuable information in regions where the earthquake catalogue is short compared to the seismic cycle. It is interesting to survey how attitudes to this issue have evolved over the past 30 years. This paper takes the UK as an example, and traces the evolution of seismic source models through generations of hazard studies. It is found that in the UK, while the earliest studies did not consider regional tectonics in any way, there has been a gradual evolution towards more tectonically based models. Experience in other countries, of course, may differ

Seismic risk in the city of Al Hoceima (north of Morocco) using the vulnerability index method, applied in Risk-UE project

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2566-8Al Hoceima is one of the most seismic active regions in north of Morocco. It is demonstrated by the large seismic episodes reported in seismic catalogs and research studies. However, seismic risk is relatively high due to vulnerable buildings that are either old or don’t respect seismic standards. Our aim is to present a study about seismic risk and seismic scenarios for the city of Al Hoceima. The seismic vulnerability of the existing residential buildings was evaluated using the vulnerability index method (Risk-UE). It was chosen to be adapted and applied to the Moroccan constructions for its practicality and simple methodology. A visual inspection of 1102 buildings was carried out to assess the vulnerability factors. As for seismic hazard, it was evaluated in terms of macroseismic intensity for two scenarios (a deterministic and probabilistic scenario). The maps of seismic risk are represented by direct damage on buildings, damage to population and economic cost. According to the results, the main vulnerability index of the city is equal to 0.49 and the seismic risk is estimated as Slight (main damage grade equal to 0.9 for the deterministic scenario and 0.7 for the probabilistic scenario). However, Moderate to heavy damage is expected in areas located in the newer extensions, in both the east and west of the city. Important economic losses and damage to the population are expected in these areas as well. The maps elaborated can be a potential guide to the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation strategies in Al Hoceima.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.​efehr.​org)

Earthquake activity and hazard in the Carpathian Basin I

The seismicity and seismic hazard of the Carpathian Basin are studied in this paper based on a recent comprehensive database cataloging over 20 thousands earthquakes between 456 and 1995. The epicentre distributions of these events indicate the geographical positions of the most active tectonic processes in the region. Among them the south-eastern bend of the Carpathians (Háromszék-Vrancea zone, Romania) and the area of south-eastern Alps have the highest seismic activity. The former source area is very specific by its strong seismicity from the intermediate depth domain (70-170 km). The intermediate-depth sources are deepening nearly vertically but in somewhat SW direction and the separation of the crustal earthquakes from the events connected to the lithospheric plate subsiding into the astenosphere is well observed at about 50 km, which is the depth of the Mohorovičić discontinuity (MOHO) in this region. The lithospheric plate subsiding to the depth of 150-200 km is supposed to be disconnected around 50 km. Some weakness of this slab can also be assumable based on the lower seismic activity observed between 100-120 km

The use of Artificial Neural Networks to estimate seismic damage and derive vulnerability functions for traditional masonry

This paper discusses the adoption of Artificial Intelligence-based techniques to estimate seismic damage, not with the goal of replacing existing approaches, but as a mean to improve the precision of empirical methods. For such, damage data collected in the aftermath of the 1998 Azores earthquake (Portugal) is used to develop a comparative analysis between damage grades obtained resorting to a classic damage formulation and an innovative approach based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The analysis is carried out on the basis of a vulnerability index computed with a hybrid seismic vulnerability assessment methodology, which is subsequently used as input to both approaches. The results obtained are then compared with real post-earthquake damage observation and critically discussed taking into account the level of adjustment achieved by each approach. Finally, a computer routine that uses the ANN as an approximation function is developed and applied to derive a new vulnerability curve expression. In general terms, the ANN developed in this study allowed to obtain much better approximations than those achieved with the original vulnerability approach, which has revealed to be quite non-conservative. Similarly, the proposed vulnerability curve expression was found to provide a more accurate damage prediction than the traditional analytical expressions.SFRH/BPD/122598/2016info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio