Insights into the Influence of Priors in Posterior Mapping of Discrete Morphological Characters: A Case Study in Annonaceae

Background - Posterior mapping is an increasingly popular hierarchical Bayesian based method used to infer character histories and reconstruct ancestral states at nodes of molecular phylogenies, notably of morphological characters. As for all Bayesian analyses specification of prior values is an integrative and important part of the analysis. He we provide an example of how alternative prior choices can seriously influence results and mislead interpretations. Methods/Principal Findings - For two contrasting discrete morphological characters, namely a slow and a fast evolving character found in the plant family Annonaceae, we specified a total of eight different prior distributions per character. We investigated how these prior settings affected important summary statistics. Our analyses showed that the different prior distributions had marked effects on the results in terms of average number of character state changes. These differences arise because priors play a crucial role in determining which areas of parameter space the values of the simulation will be drawn from, independent of the data at hand. However, priors seemed to fit the data better if they would result in a more even sampling of parameter space (normal posterior distribution), in which case alternative standard deviation values had little effect on the results. The most probable character history for each character was affected differently by the prior. For the slower evolving character, the same character history always had the highest posterior probability independent of the priors used. In contrast, the faster evolving character showed different most probable character histories depending on the prior. These differences could be related to the level of homoplasy exhibited by each character. Conclusions - Although our analyses were restricted to two morphological characters within a single family, our results underline the importance of carefully choosing prior values for posterior mapping. Prior specification will be of crucial importance when interpreting the results in a meaningful way. It is hard to suggest a statistically sound method for prior specification without more detailed studies. Meanwhile, we propose that the data could be used to estimate the prior value of the gamma distribution placed on the transformation rate in posterior mappin

Power Law Scaling for a System of Interacting Units with Complex Internal Structure

We study the dynamics of a system composed of interacting units each with a complex internal structure comprising many subunits. We consider the case in which each subunit grows in a multiplicative manner. We propose a model for such systems in which the interaction among the units is treated in a mean field approximation and the interaction among subunits is nonlinear. To test the model, we identify a large data base spanning 20 years, and find that the model correctly predicts a variety of empirical results.Comment: 4 pages with 4 postscript figures (uses Revtex 3.1, Latex2e, multicol.sty, epsf.sty and rotate.sty). Submitted to PR

Churn, Baby, Churn: Strategic Dynamics Among Dominant and Fringe Firms in a Segmented Industry

This paper integrates and extends the literatures on industry evolution and dominant firms to develop a dynamic theory of dominant and fringe competitive interaction in a segmented industry. It argues that a dominant firm, seeing contraction of growth in its current segment(s), enters new segments in which it can exploit its technological strengths, but that are sufficiently distant to avoid cannibalization. The dominant firm acts as a low-cost Stackelberg leader, driving down prices and triggering a sales takeoff in the new segment. We identify a “churn” effect associated with dominant firm entry: fringe firms that precede the dominant firm into the segment tend to exit the segment, while new fringe firms enter, causing a net increase in the number of firms in the segment. As the segment matures and sales decline in the segment, the process repeats itself. We examine the predictions of the theory with a study of price, quantity, entry, and exit across 24 product classes in the desktop laser printer industry from 1984 to 1996. Using descriptive statistics, hazard rate models, and panel data methods, we find empirical support for the theoretical predictions

Time- and momentum-resolved photoemission studies using time-of-flight momentum microscopy at a free-electron laser

Time-resolved photoemission with ultrafast pump and probe pulses is an emerging technique with wide application potential. Real-time recording of nonequilibrium electronic processes, transient states in chemical reactions, or the interplay of electronic and structural dynamics offers fascinating opportunities for future research. Combining valence-band and core-level spectroscopy with photoelectron diffraction for electronic, chemical, and structural analyses requires few 10 fs soft X-ray pulses with some 10 meV spectral resolution, which are currently available at high repetition rate free-electron lasers. We have constructed and optimized a versatile setup commissioned at FLASH/PG2 that combines free-electron laser capabilities together with a multidimensional recording scheme for photoemission studies. We use a full-field imaging momentum microscope with time-of-flight energy recording as the detector for mapping of 3D band structures in (kx, ky, E) parameter space with unprecedented efficiency. Our instrument can image full surface Brillouin zones with up to 7 Å−1 diameter in a binding-energy range of several eV, resolving about 2.5 × 105 data voxels simultaneously. Using the ultrafast excited state dynamics in the van der Waals semiconductor WSe2 measured at photon energies of 36.5 eV and 109.5 eV, we demonstrate an experimental energy resolution of 130 meV, a momentum resolution of 0.06 Å−1, and a system response function of 150 fs

Expression of the RNA helicase DDX3 and the hypoxia response in breast cancer

<p>Aims: DDX3 is an RNA helicase that has antiapoptotic properties, and promotes proliferation and transformation. In addition, DDX3 was shown to be a direct downstream target of HIF-1α (the master regulatory of the hypoxia response) in breast cancer cell lines. However, the relation between DDX3 and hypoxia has not been addressed in human tumors. In this paper, we studied the relation between DDX3 and the hypoxic responsive proteins in human breast cancer.</p> <p>Methods and Results: DDX3 expression was investigated by immunohistochemistry in breast cancer in comparison with hypoxia related proteins HIF-1α, GLUT1, CAIX, EGFR, HER2, Akt1, FOXO4, p53, ERα, COMMD1, FER kinase, PIN1, E-cadherin, p21, p27, Transferrin receptor, FOXO3A, c-Met and Notch1. DDX3 was overexpressed in 127 of 366 breast cancer patients, and was correlated with overexpression of HIF-1α and its downstream genes CAIX and GLUT1. Moreover, DDX3 expression correlated with hypoxia-related proteins EGFR, HER2, FOXO4, ERα and c-Met in a HIF-1α dependent fashion, and with COMMD1, FER kinase, Akt1, E-cadherin, TfR and FOXO3A independent of HIF-1α.</p> <p>Conclusions: In invasive breast cancer, expression of DDX3 was correlated with overexpression of HIF-1α and many other hypoxia related proteins, pointing to a distinct role for DDX3 under hypoxic conditions and supporting the oncogenic role of DDX3 which could have clinical implication for current development of DDX3 inhibitors.</p&gt

Olaparib plus Durvalumab, with or without Bevacizumab, as Treatment in PARP Inhibitor-Na\uefve Platinum-Sensitive Relapsed Ovarian Cancer: A Phase II Multi-Cohort Study

\ua92023 The Authors; Published by the American Association for Cancer Research. PURPOSE: Early results from the phase II MEDIOLA study (NCT02734004) in germline BRCA1- and/or BRCA2-mutated (gBRCAm) platinum-sensitive relapsed ovarian cancer (PSROC) showed promising efficacy and safety with olaparib plus durvalumab. We report efficacy and safety of olaparib plus durvalumab in an expansion cohort of women with gBRCAm PSROC (gBRCAm expansion doublet cohort) and two cohorts with non-gBRCAm PSROC, one of which also received bevacizumab (non-gBRCAm doublet and triplet cohorts). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this open-label, multicenter study, PARP inhibitor-na\uefve patients received olaparib plus durvalumab treatment until disease progression; the non-gBRCAm triplet cohort also received bevacizumab. Primary endpoints were objective response rate (ORR; gBRCAm expansion doublet cohort), disease control rate (DCR) at 24 weeks (non-gBRCAm cohorts), and safety (all cohorts). RESULTS: The full analysis and safety analysis sets comprised 51, 32, and 31 patients in the gBRCAm expansion doublet, non-gBRCAm doublet, and non-gBRCAm triplet cohorts, respectively. ORR was 92.2% [95% confidence interval (CI), 81.1-97.8] in the gBRCAm expansion doublet cohort (primary endpoint); DCR at 24 weeks was 28.1% (90% CI, 15.5-43.9) in the non-gBRCAm doublet cohort (primary endpoint) and 74.2% (90% CI, 58.2-86.5) in the non-gBRCAm triplet cohort (primary endpoint). Grade ≥ 3 adverse events were reported in 47.1%, 65.6%, and 61.3% of patients in the gBRCAm expansion doublet, non-gBRCAm doublet, and non-gBRCAm triplet cohorts, respectively, most commonly anemia. CONCLUSIONS: Olaparib plus durvalumab continued to show notable clinical activity in women with gBRCAm PSROC. Olaparib plus durvalumab with bevacizumab demonstrated encouraging clinical activity in women with non-gBRCAm PSROC. No new safety signals were identified

Optical control of 4f orbital state in rare-earth metals

Information technology demands continuous increase of data-storage density. In high-density magnetic recording media, the large magneto-crystalline anisotropy (MCA) stabilizes the stored information against decay through thermal fluctuations. In the latest generation storage media, MCA is so large that magnetic order needs to be transiently destroyed by heat to enable bit writing. Here we show an alternative approach to control high-anisotropy magnets: With ultrashort laser pulses the anisotropy itself can be manipulated via electronic state excitations. In rare-earth materials like terbium metal, magnetic moment and high MCA both originate from the 4f electronic state. Following infrared laser excitation 5d-4f electron-electron scattering processes lead to selective orbital excitations that change the 4f orbital occupation and significantly alter the MCA. Besides these excitations within the 4f multiplet, 5d-4f electron transfer causes a transient change of the 4f occupation number, which, too, strongly alters the MCA. Such MCA change cannot be achieved by heating: The material would rather be damaged than the 4f configuration modified. Our results show a way to overcome this limitation for a new type of efficient magnetic storage medium. Besides potential technological relevance, the observation of MCA-changing excitations also has implications for a general understanding of magnetic dynamics processes on ultrashort time scales, where the 4f electronic state affects the angular momentum transfer between spin system and lattice.Comment: Manuscript (14 pages, 3 figures) and Supplementary Information (22 pages, 9 figures