Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall-runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules. This article has supplementary material online

Antimicrobial resistance determinants are associated with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia and adaptation to the healthcare environment: a bacterial genome-wide association study

Staphylococcus aureus is a major bacterial pathogen in humans, and a dominant cause of severe bloodstream infections. Globally, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in S. aureus remains challenging. While human risk factors for infection have been defined, contradictory evidence exists for the role of bacterial genomic variation in S. aureus disease. To investigate the contribution of bacterial lineage and genomic variation to the development of bloodstream infection, we undertook a genome-wide association study comparing bacteria from 1017 individuals with bacteraemia to 984 adults with asymptomatic S. aureus nasal carriage. Within 984 carriage isolates, we also compared healthcare-associated (HA) carriage with community-associated (CA) carriage. All major global lineages were represented in both bacteraemia and carriage, with no evidence for different infection rates. However, kmers tagging trimethoprim resistance-conferring mutation F99Y in dfrB were significantly associated with bacteraemia-vs-carriage (P=10-8.9-10-9.3). Pooling variation within genes, bacteraemia-vs-carriage was associated with the presence of mecA (HMP=10-5.3) as well as the presence of SCCmec (HMP=10-4.4). Among S. aureus carriers, no lineages were associated with HA-vs-CA carriage. However, we found a novel signal of HA-vs-CA carriage in the foldase protein prsA, where kmers representing conserved sequence allele were associated with CA carriage (P=10-7.1-10-19.4), while in gyrA, a ciprofloxacin resistance-conferring mutation, L84S, was associated with HA carriage (P=10-7.2). In an extensive study of S. aureus bacteraemia and nasal carriage in the UK, we found strong evidence that all S. aureus lineages are equally capable of causing bloodstream infection, and of being carried in the healthcare environment. Genomic variation in the foldase protein prsA is a novel genomic marker of healthcare origin in S. aureus but was not associated with bacteraemia. AMR determinants were associated with both bacteraemia and healthcare-associated carriage, suggesting that AMR increases the propensity not only to survive in healthcare environments, but also to cause invasive disease

Patterns of Gene Flow Define Species of Thermophilic Archaea

A genomic view of speciation in Archaea shows higher rates of gene flow within coexisting microbial species than between them

Getting to the heart of intracellular glucocorticoid regeneration:11β-HSD1 in the myocardium

Corticosteroids influence the development and function of the heart and its response to injury and pressure overload via actions on glucocorticoid (GR) and mineralocorticoid (MR) receptors. Systemic corticosteroid concentration depends largely on the activity of the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis, but glucocorticoid can also be regenerated from intrinsically inert metabolites by the enzyme 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11β-HSD1), selectively increasing glucocorticoid levels within cells and tissues. Extensive studies have revealed the roles for glucocorticoid regeneration by 11β-HSD1 in liver, adipose, brain and other tissues, but until recently, there has been little focus on the heart. This article reviews the evidence for glucocorticoid metabolism by 11β-HSD1 in the heart and for a role of 11β-HSD1 activity in determining the myocardial growth and physiological function. We also consider the potential of 11β-HSD1 as a therapeutic target to enhance repair after myocardial infarction and to prevent the development of cardiac remodelling and heart failure

A Post-Synaptic Scaffold at the Origin of the Animal Kingdom

The evolution of complex sub-cellular structures such as the synapse requires the assembly of multiple proteins, each conferring added functionality to the integrated structure. Tracking the early evolution of synapses has not been possible without genomic information from the earliest branching animals. As the closest extant relatives to the Eumetazoa, Porifera (sponges) represent a pivotal group for understanding the evolution of nervous systems, because sponges lack neurons with clearly recognizable synapses, in contrast to eumetazoan animals.We show that the genome of the demosponge Amphimedon queenslandica possesses a nearly complete set of post-synaptic protein homologs whose conserved interaction motifs suggest assembly into a complex structure. In the critical synaptic scaffold gene, dlg, residues that make hydrogen bonds and van der Waals interactions with the PDZ ligand are 100% conserved between sponge and human, as is the motif organization of the scaffolds. Expression in Amphimedon of multiple post-synaptic gene homologs in larval flask cells further supports the existence of an assembled structure. Among the few post-synaptic genes absent from Amphimedon, but present in Eumetazoa, are receptor genes including the entire ionotropic glutamate receptor family.Highly conserved protein interaction motifs and co-expression in sponges of multiple proteins whose homologs interact in eumetazoan synapses indicate that a complex protein scaffold was present at the origin of animals, perhaps predating nervous systems. A relatively small number of crucial innovations to this pre-existing structure may represent the founding changes that led to a post-synaptic element

A Polarised Population of Dynamic Microtubules Mediates Homeostatic Length Control in Animal Cells

An analysis of cells grown on micro-patterned lines, and of cells during zebrafish development, identifies a population of microtubules that align along the long axis of cells to mediate homeostatic length control

Contrasting Patterns of Sequence Evolution at the Functionally Redundant bric à brac Paralogs in Drosophila melanogaster

Genes with overlapping expression and function may gradually diverge despite retaining some common functions. To test whether such genes show distinct patterns of molecular evolution within species, we examined sequence variation at the bric à brac (bab) locus of Drosophila melanogaster. This locus is composed of two anciently duplicated paralogs, bab1 and bab2, which are involved in patterning the adult abdomen, legs, and ovaries. We have sequenced the 148 kb genomic region spanning the bab1 and bab2 genes from 94 inbred lines of D. melanogaster sampled from a single location. Two non-coding regions, one in each paralog, appear to be under selection. The strongest evidence of directional selection is found in a region of bab2 that has no known functional role. The other region is located in the bab1 paralog and is known to contain a cis-regulatory element that controls sex-specific abdominal pigmentation. The coding region of bab1 appears to be under stronger functional constraint than the bab2 coding sequences. Thus, the two paralogs are evolving under different selective regimes in the same natural population, illuminating the different evolutionary trajectories of partially redundant duplicate genes

Antimicrobial resistance determinants are associated with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia and adaptation to the healthcare environment: a bacterial genome-wide association study

Staphylococcus aureus is a major bacterial pathogen in humans, and a dominant cause of severe bloodstream infections. Globally, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in S. aureus remains challenging. While human risk factors for infection have been defined, contradictory evidence exists for the role of bacterial genomic variation in S. aureus disease. To investigate the contribution of bacterial lineage and genomic variation to the development of bloodstream infection, we undertook a genome-wide association study comparing bacteria from 1017 individuals with bacteraemia to 984 adults with asymptomatic S. aureus nasal carriage. Within 984 carriage isolates, we also compared healthcare-associated (HA) carriage with community-associated (CA) carriage. All major global lineages were represented in both bacteraemia and carriage, with no evidence for different infection rates. However, kmers tagging trimethoprim resistance-conferring mutation F99Y in dfrB were significantly associated with bacteraemia-vs-carriage (P=10-8.9-10-9.3). Pooling variation within genes, bacteraemia-vs-carriage was associated with the presence of mecA (HMP=10-5.3) as well as the presence of SCCmec (HMP=10-4.4). Among S. aureus carriers, no lineages were associated with HA-vs-CA carriage. However, we found a novel signal of HA-vs-CA carriage in the foldase protein prsA, where kmers representing conserved sequence allele were associated with CA carriage (P=10-7.1-10-19.4), while in gyrA, a ciprofloxacin resistance-conferring mutation, L84S, was associated with HA carriage (P=10-7.2). In an extensive study of S. aureus bacteraemia and nasal carriage in the UK, we found strong evidence that all S. aureus lineages are equally capable of causing bloodstream infection, and of being carried in the healthcare environment. Genomic variation in the foldase protein prsA is a novel genomic marker of healthcare origin in S. aureus but was not associated with bacteraemia. AMR determinants were associated with both bacteraemia and healthcare-associated carriage, suggesting that AMR increases the propensity not only to survive in healthcare environments, but also to cause invasive disease

Maternal Environment Influences Cocaine Intake in Adulthood in a Genotype-Dependent Manner

Background: Accumulating epidemiological evidence points to the role of genetic background as a modulator of the capacity of adverse early experiences to give rise to mental illness. However, direct evidence of such gene-environment interaction in the context of substance abuse is scarce. In the present study we investigated whether the impact of early life experiences on cocaine intake in adulthood depends on genetic background. In addition, we studied other behavioral dimensions associated with drug abuse, i.e. anxiety- and depression-related behaviors. Methodology/Principal Findings: For this purpose, we manipulated the maternal environment of two inbred mouse strains, the C57BL/6J and DBA/2J by fostering them with non-related mothers, i.e. the C3H/HeN and AKR strains. These mother strains show respectively high and low pup-oriented behavior. As adults, C57BL/6J and DBA/2J were tested either for cocaine intravenous self-administration or in the elevated plus-maze and forced swim test (FST). We found that the impact of maternal environment on cocaine use and a depression-related behavior depends upon genotype, as cocaine self-administration and behavior in the FST were influenced by maternal environment in DBA/2J, but not in C57BL/6J mice. Anxiety was not influenced by maternal environment in either strain. Conclusions/Significance: Our experimental approach could contribute to the identification of the psychobiological factor