MAPPING BURNED AREAS IN THE FLINT HILLS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA, 2000-2010

Prescribed burning is commonly used to prevent succession oftallgrass prairie to woody vegetation, which preserves the prairie\u27s value to ranching and native wildlife. However, burning has negative effects as well, including potentially harming wildlife and releasing pollutants into the atmosphere. Research concerning the effects of fire on vegetation dynamics, wildlife, and air quality would benefit greatly from maps of burned areas in the Flint Hills, as no reliable quantification of burned areas currently exists. We used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery to map burned areas in the Flint Hills for each year from 2000 to 2010. Our maps revealed the total amount and spatial pattern of burning for each year. They also revealed the frequency with which different parts of the study area were burned during the II-year study period. Finally, our maps showed that nearly all burning took place during the month of April

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

Citation: Raghavan, R. K., Goodin, D. G., Neises, D., Anderson, G. A., & Ganta, R. R. (2016). Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. Plos One, 11(3), 17. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0150180This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (> 35 degrees C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed

Correlation between normalized difference vegetation index and malaria in a subtropical rain forest undergoing rapid anthropogenic alteration

Time-series of coarse-resolution greenness values derived through remote sensing have been used as a surrogate environmental variable to help monitor and predict occurrences of a number of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, including malaria. Often, relationships between a remotely-sensed index of greenness, e.g. the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and disease occurrence are established using temporal correlation analysis. However, the strength of these correlations can vary depending on type and change of land cover during the period of record as well as inter-annual variations in the climate drivers (precipitation, temperature) that control the NDVI values. In this paper, the correlation between a long (260 months) time-series of monthly disease case rates and NDVI values derived from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) data set were analysed for two departments (administrative units) located in the Atlantic Forest biome of eastern Paraguay. Each of these departments has undergone extensive deforestation during the period of record and our analysis considers the effect on correlation of active versus quiescent periods of case occurrence against a background of changing land cover. Our results show that time-series data, smoothed using the Fourier Transform tool, showed the best correlation. A moving window analysis suggests that four years is the optimum time frame for correlating these values, and the strength of correlation depends on whether it is an active or a quiescent period. Finally, a spatial analysis of our data shows that areas where land cover has changed, particularly from forest to non-forest, are well correlated with malaria case rates

Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis and geospatial risk factors of Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis

Citation: Raghavan RK, Neises D, Goodin DG, Andresen DA, Ganta RR (2014) Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Geospatial Risk Factors of Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis. PLoS ONE 9(7): e100850. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100850Variations in spatio-temporal patterns of Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis (HME) infection in the state of Kansas, USA were examined and the relationship between HME relative risk and various environmental, climatic and socio-economic variables were evaluated. HME data used in the study was reported to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment between years 2005–2012, and geospatial variables representing the physical environment [National Land cover/Land use, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)], climate [NASA MODIS, Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy (POWER)], and socio-economic conditions (US Census Bureau) were derived from publicly available sources. Following univariate screening of candidate variables using logistic regressions, two Bayesian hierarchical models were fit; a partial spatio-temporal model with random effects and a spatio-temporal interaction term, and a second model that included additional covariate terms. The best fitting model revealed that spatio-temporal autocorrelation in Kansas increased steadily from 2005–2012, and identified poverty status, relative humidity, and an interactive factor, ‘diurnal temperature range x mixed forest area’ as significant county-level risk factors for HME. The identification of significant spatio-temporal pattern and new risk factors are important in the context of HME prevention, for future research in the areas of ecology and evolution of HME, and as well as climate change impacts on tick-borne diseases

Identification of windbreaks in Kansas using object-based image analysis, GIS techniques and field survey

Windbreaks are valuable resources in conserving soils and providing crop protection in Great Plains states in the US. Currently, Kansas has no up-to date inventory of windbreaks. The goal of this project was to assist foresters with future windbreak renovation planning and reporting, by outlining a series of semi-automated digital image processing methods that rapidly identify windbreak locations. There were two specific objectives of this research. First, to develop semi-automated methods to identify the location of windbreaks in Kansas, this can be applied to other regions in Kansas and the Great Plains. We used a remote sensing technique known as object-based image analysis (OBIA) to classify windbreaks visible in the color aerial imagery of National Agriculture Imagery Program. We also combined GIS techniques and field survey to complement OBIA in generating windbreak inventory. The techniques successfully located more than 4500, windbreaks covering an approximate area of 2500, hectares in 14 Kansas counties. The second purpose of this research is to determine how well the results of the automated classification schemes match with other available windbreak data and the selected sample collected in the field. The overall accuracy of OBIA method was 58.97 %. OBIA combined with ‘heads up’ digitizing and field survey method yielded better result in identifying and locating windbreaks in the studied counties with overall accuracy of 96 %

Spatially heterogeneous land cover/land use and climatic risk factors of tick-borne feline cytauxzoonosis

Background: Feline cytauxzoonosis is a highly fatal tick-borne disease caused by a hemoparasitic protozoan, Cytauxzoon felis. This disease is a leading cause of mortality for cats in the Midwestern United States, and no vaccine or effective treatment options exist. Prevention based on knowledge of risk factors is therefore vital. Associations of different environmental factors, including recent climate were evaluated as potential risk factors for cytauxzoonosis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Methods: There were 69 cases determined to be positive for cytauxzoonosis based upon positive identification of C. felis within blood film examinations, tissue impression smears, or histopathologic examination of tissues. Negative controls totaling 123 were selected from feline cases that had a history of fever, malaise, icterus, and anorexia but lack of C. felis within blood films, impression smears, or histopathologic examination of tissues. Additional criteria to rule out C. felis among controls were the presence of regenerative anemia, cytologic examination of blood marrow or lymph node aspirate, other causative agent diagnosed, or survival of 25 days or greater after testing. Potential environmental determinants were derived from publicly available sources, viz., US Department of Agriculture (soil attributes), US Geological Survey (land-cover/landscape, landscape metrics), and NASA (climate). Candidate variables were screened using univariate logistic models with a liberal p value (0.2), and associations with cytauxzoonosis were modeled using a global multivariate logistic model (p<0.05). Spatial heterogeneity among significant variables in the study region was modeled using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach. Results: Total Edge Contrast Index (TECI), grassland-coverage, humidity conditions recorded during the 9th week prior to case arrival, and an interaction variable, “diurnal temperature range×percent mixed forest area” were significant risk factors for cytauxzoonosis in the study region. TECI and grassland areas exhibited significant regional differences in their effects on cytauxzoonosis outcome, whereas others were uniform. Conclusions: Land-cover areas favorable for tick habitats and climatic conditions that favor the tick life cycle are strong risk factors for feline cytauxzoonosis. Spatial heterogeneity and interaction effects between land-cover and climatic variables may reveal new information when evaluating risk factors for vector-borne diseases

Temporal variability in large grazer space use in an experimental landscape

Land use, climate change, and their interaction each have great potential to affect grazing systems. With anticipated more frequent and extensive future drought, a more complete understanding of the mechanisms that determine large grazer landscape-level distribution under varying climatic conditions is integral to ecosystem management. Using an experimental setting with contrasting fire treatments, we describe the inter-annual variability of the effect of landscape topography and disturbance from prescribed spring fire on large grazer space use in years of variable resource availability. Using GPS telemetry, we investigated space use of plains bison (Bison bison bison) as they moved among watersheds managed with variable experimental burn treatments (1-, 2-, 4-, and 20-year burn intervals) during a seven-year period spanning years of average-to-above average forage production and severe drought. At the landscape scale, bison more strongly favored high-elevation and recently burned watersheds with watersheds burned for the first time in 2 or 4 yr consistently showing higher use relative to annually burned watersheds. In particular, watersheds burned for the first time in 4 yr were avoided to lesser extent than other more frequently burned watersheds during the dormant season. This management type also maintained coupling between bison space use and post-fire regrowth across post-drought growing season months, whereas watersheds with more frequent fire-return intervals attracted bison in only the first month post-fire. Hence, fire frequency played a role in maintaining the coupling of grazer and post-fire regrowth, the fire–grazer interaction, in response to drought-induced reduction in fuel loads. Moreover, bison avoided upland habitat in poor forage production years, when forage regrowth is less likely to occur in upland than in lowland habitats. Such quantified responses of bison to landscape features can aid future conservation management efforts and planning to sustain fire–grazer interactions and resulting spatial heterogeneity in grassland ecosystems

Temporal variability in large grazer space use in an experimental landscape

Land use, climate change, and their interaction each have great potential to affect grazing systems. With anticipated more frequent and extensive future drought, a more complete understanding of the mechanisms that determine large grazer landscape-level distribution under varying climatic conditions is integral to ecosystem management. Using an experimental setting with contrasting fire treatments, we describe the inter-annual variability of the effect of landscape topography and disturbance from prescribed spring fire on large grazer space use in years of variable resource availability. Using GPS telemetry, we investigated space use of plains bison (Bison bison bison) as they moved among watersheds managed with variable experimental burn treatments (1-, 2-, 4-, and 20-year burn intervals) during a seven-year period spanning years of average-to-above average forage production and severe drought. At the landscape scale, bison more strongly favored high-elevation and recently burned watersheds with watersheds burned for the first time in 2 or 4 yr consistently showing higher use relative to annually burned watersheds. In particular, watersheds burned for the first time in 4 yr were avoided to lesser extent than other more frequently burned watersheds during the dormant season. This management type also maintained coupling between bison space use and post-fire regrowth across post-drought growing season months, whereas watersheds with more frequent fire-return intervals attracted bison in only the first month post-fire. Hence, fire frequency played a role in maintaining the coupling of grazer and post-fire regrowth, the fire–grazer interaction, in response to drought-induced reduction in fuel loads. Moreover, bison avoided upland habitat in poor forage production years, when forage regrowth is less likely to occur in upland than in lowland habitats. Such quantified responses of bison to landscape features can aid future conservation management efforts and planning to sustain fire–grazer interactions and resulting spatial heterogeneity in grassland ecosystems

Bayesian Spatiotemporal Pattern and Eco-climatological Drivers of Striped Skunk Rabies in the North Central Plains

Citation: Raghavan, R. K., Hanlon, C. A., Goodin, D. G., Davis, R., Moore, M., Moore, S., & Anderson, G. A. (2016). Bayesian Spatiotemporal Pattern and Eco-climatological Drivers of Striped Skunk Rabies in the North Central Plains. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases, 10(4), 16. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004632Striped skunks are one of the most important terrestrial reservoirs of rabies virus in North America, and yet the prevalence of rabies among this host is only passively monitored and the disease among this host remains largely unmanaged. Oral vaccination campaigns have not efficiently targeted striped skunks, while periodic spillovers of striped skunk variant viruses to other animals, including some domestic animals, are routinely recorded. In this study we evaluated the spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of infection status among striped skunk cases submitted for rabies testing in the North Central Plains of US in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, and also evaluated potential eco-climatological drivers of such patterns. Two Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to point-referenced striped skunk rabies cases [n = 656 (negative), and n = 310 (positive)] received at a leading rabies diagnostic facility between the years 2007-2013. The first model included only spatial and temporal terms and a second covariate model included additional covariates representing eco-climatic conditions within a 4km(2) home-range area for striped skunks. The better performing covariate model indicated the presence of significant spatial and temporal trends in the dataset and identified higher amounts of land covered by low-intensity developed areas [Odds ratio (OR) = 3.41; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (CrI) = 2.08, 3.85], higher level of patch fragmentation (OR = 1.70; 95% CrI = 1.25, 2.89), and diurnal temperature range (OR = 0.54; 95% CrI = 0.27, 0.91) to be important drivers of striped skunk rabies incidence in the study area. Model validation statistics indicated satisfactory performance for both models; however, the covariate model fared better. The findings of this study are important in the context of rabies management among striped skunks in North America, and the relevance of physical and climatological factors as risk factors for skunk to human rabies transmission and the space-time patterns of striped skunk rabies are discussed