Forecasting of Cairo Population using ARMA Model

The problem of large population is one of the most important factors influencingthe economy and social advancement of Egypt. Population forecasts, whencarefully and intelligently made, serves a valuable purpose in helping to direct theemployment of labor and capital to places or projects where they are most needed.Firstly, the paper focuses on studying the population of the capital of Egypt (Cairo).By large numbers of sampling to the population data sequence, the increasing trendis found. Then, a time series model is given which can accurately forecast thepopulation of Cairo. Multiple Autoregressive models AR (1), AR (2) are used theforecasting of the population in the next twenty years. The parameters of the modelare calculated using the famous two methods: Yule-Walker and Burg. Before usingthe model to make predictions, the test of model response is verified, and the MSEand MAPE are measured to verify the models. The result is a scary image of thepopulation in this city. Full descriptions for the steps of selecting the suitable modeland comprehensive MATLAB simulation are presented. Secondly, the totalpopulation density of Egypt is analyzing and forecasting with using the measureddata from 1970 to 2013. The same steps of the first part are done with thepopulation density and forecasting of the increasing of the population density ofEgypt in the 20 next years is presented. The main reasons for the populationproblem are discussed and solution of this problem is presente

VIE Project: Cultural values and socioeconomic factors as determinants of entrepreneurial intentions

This paper describes a research project currently being developed by the authors. It aims to analyse the role played by psychosocial, cultural and socioeconomic factors in shaping the entrepreneurial intention. Survey methods will be used on a population of potential entrepreneurs (having not yet performed actual entrepreneurial behaviours). In this sense, undergraduate students and individuals contacting business support centres will be considered as part of the sample. We expect to get a clearer understanding of the psychosocial elements, socioeconomic factors and cultural values affecting the venture-creation decision. The results would be important to policy makers (showing them what to encourage), to practitioners (what to do better), and to researchers (what to clarify)

Optimum Bayesian thresholds for rebalanced classification problems using class-switching ensembles

Asymmetric label switching is an effective and principled method for creating a diverse ensemble of learners for imbalanced classification problems. This technique can be combined with other rebalancing mechanisms, such as those based on cost policies or class proportion modifications. In this study, and under the Bayesian theory framework, we specify the optimal decision thresholds for the combination of these mechanisms. In addition, we propose using a gating network to aggregate the learners contributions as an additional mechanism to improve the overall performance of the system.We thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions and comments. This work is partially funded by Project PID2021-125652OB-I00 from the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación of Spain. Funding for APC: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Read & Publish Agreement CRUE-CSIC 2022). In memoriam: Prof. Aníbal R. Figueiras-Vidal (1950-2022)

Structured information in small-world neural networks

The retrieval abilities of spatially uniform attractor networks can be measured by the global overlap between patterns and neural states. However, we found that nonuniform networks, for instance, small-world networks, can retrieve fragments of patterns blocks without performing global retrieval. We propose a way to measure the local retrieval using a parameter that is related to the fluctuation of the block overlaps. Simulation of neural dynamics shows a competition between local and global retrieval. The phase diagram shows a transition from local retrieval to global retrieval when the storage ratio increases and the topology becomes more random. A theoretical approach confirms the simulation results and predicts that the stability of blocks can be improved by dilution.This work was supported by the MEC Grants No. TIN- 2004-04363-CO03-03, No. TIN-2007-65989 and by the CAM Grant No. S-SEM-0255-2006. E.S. was partially supported by the MEC Grant No. PR2007-0080. We thank K. Koroutchev and R. Levi for useful discussion

Expert System to Real Time Control of Machining Processes

Industrial machining processes use automated milling machines. These machines are connected to a control device that provides the basic instructions used to obtain a piece. However, these processes depend on the human decision to diagnose and correct in real time the inaccuracies that can occur. In this work we present an expert system to real time control of machining processes using the information provided by sensors located on the machine. This system has been implemented as a prototype in a Kondia 600 milling machine with a FAGOR 8025-MG control device

La desinstitucionalització i la crisi de les institucions

Parlar d'institucions s'ha convertit en parlar de la seva crisi. Amb l'assentament de la societat postindustrial sembla que s'han accentuat les dificultats de legitimació d'unes institucions creades per mantenir un tipus de formació social que esta en procés de desaparició. De fet, es pot dir que la crisi de les institucions no és més que un aspecte d'una altra de global que podríem anomenar crisi del projecte modern.Hablar de instituciones se ha convertido en hablar de crisis de las instituciones. En este sentido, la noción de desinstitucionalización ocupa un lugar relevante en la reflexión institucional. Por este motivo, en este artículo se lleva a cabo una revisión del concepto de institución v de las principales críticas que ha recibido como paso previo al análisis más detallado del fenómeno desinstitucionalizador en la práctica psiquiátrica. Tal análisis lleva a la elaboración de una propuesta alternativa que cuestiona la pertinencia de seguir hablando de instituciones, así como de procesos desinstitucionalizadores. Concretamente, se plantea que las especiales características de algunas prácticas psiquiátricas contemporáneas se ajustan mejor a la noción de ex-titución tomada de la obra de SerresSpeaking of the institutions implies nowadays speaking of the crisis of institutions. In that sense, the concept of disinstitutionalization fills a relevant role in the institutional reflection. For this reason, this article carries out a review of the concept of institution and the main criticisms that it has received as a previous step to a more detailed examination of the disinstitutionalizing phenomenon, in the framework of psychiatric experience. Such an examination leads to the making of an alternative proposal which questions the pertinence of keeping speaking of both institutions and disinstutionalizing processes. It is specifically argued that the special features of some contemporary psychiatric methods comply better with the concept of ex-titution, extracted from the Serres' work

Depurador Declarativo de programas JAVA

El objetivo del proyecto que presentamos a continuación es el desarrollo de un depurador declarativo para programas que estén implementados en Java. Recoge las ideas de la depuración declarativa para obtener una herramienta intuitiva y de fácil manejo que consiga encontrar los errores en el código de un programa orientado a objetos. La depuración declarativa es un método de búsqueda de errores en el código de un programa basado en la semántica del lenguaje en el que está escrito dicho código. Es decir, se centra en el significado del código que estamos ejecutando, no en su estructura ni tampoco en la manera en la que está implementado. La aplicación tiene cómo objetivo el de obtener un árbol de ejecución a partir del cómputo del programa y depurar dicho árbol. En el árbol, los nodos representan las llamadas a funciones que encontramos en el código. El proceso de depuración se lleva a cabo evaluando cada nodo del árbol. Éstos se validan o invalidan en función de si el comportamiento de la llamada asociada es el pretendido o no. Hemos obtenido una herramienta útil e innovadora que permite depurar programas orientados a objetos y que facilita la incorporación de nuevas estrategias de recorridos de árboles. [ABSTRACT] The goal of the project we are presenting in this document is the development of a declarative debugger for programs that are implemented in Java. It gathers the ideas of the declarative debug process to obtain an intuitive and easy managed tool which finds code errors in an object orientated program. The debugging declarative process is a method to find mistakes on a program. It is based on the semantic of the language. This means that, it looks for the meaning of the code that we are executing, instead of looking for the way that it is implemented. Our application obtains an execution tree from the program trace, and debugs it. In the tree, the nodes represent the calls to functions that we can find in the code. The declarative debug process consists on evaluating these tree nodes. These nodes are correct or incorrect depending on the result that we obtain from the function call. Finally, we have implemented a useful and innovative tool that allows debug object orientated programs or even the incorporation of new navigator strategies for trees

A model of spatial location: New data for the Gor River megalithic landscape (Spain) from LiDAR technology and field survey

The megalithic cluster of the Gor River valley (Andalusia, Spain) is one of the biggest dolmenic groups in Europe, made up of 151 preserved megaliths. In spite of this high number of known monuments, increasing loss and destruction of many of the graves has taken place during the last decades due to enormous soil erosion and anthropogenic activities. With the aim of recording the location of these lost megaliths, Digital Terrain Models and LiDAR data have been used to analyse the terrain showing a high quantity of structures that seem similar to those actually documented in the zone but that were not noticed until now. These possible new burial mounds have been tested by archaeological surface survey, choosing three contrasting areas as samples. Results have shown a high success rate for this methodology, even allowing the discovery of new megalithic graves in heavily researched areas. We interpret the likely higher number of burial mounds in the area to indicate greater territorial control in boundary areas between 4th and 3rd millennium BC.Ministry of Science and Innovation, Spain (MICINN) PID2020-117437GB-I00/AEI/10.13039/50110001103