Use of Species Distribution Modeling in the Deep Sea

In the last two decades the use of species distribution modeling (SDM) for the study and management of marine species has increased dramatically. The availability of predictor variables on a global scale and the ease of use of SDM techniques have resulted in a proliferation of research on the topic of species distribution in the deep sea. Translation of research projects into management tools that can be used to make decisions in the face of changing climate and increasing exploitation of deep-sea resources has been less rapid but necessary. The goal of this workshop was to discuss methods and variables for modeling species distributions in deep-sea habitats and produce standards that can be used to judge SDMs that may be useful to meet management and conservation goals. During the workshop, approaches to modeling and environmental data were discussed and guidelines developed including the desire that 1) environmental variables should be chosen for ecological significance a priori; 2) the scale and accuracy of environmental data should be considered in choosing a modeling method; 3) when possible proxy variables such as depth should be avoided if causal variables are available; 4) models with statistically robust and rigorous outputs are preferred, but not always possible; and 5) model validation is important. Although general guidelines for SDMs were developed, in most cases management issues and objectives should be considered when designing a modeling project. In particular, the trade-off between model complexity and researcher’s ability to communicate input data, modeling method, results and uncertainty is an important consideration for the target audience

Assessing the state of marine biodiversity in the Northeast Atlantic

The Northeast Atlantic, a highly productive maritime area, has been exposed to a wide range of direct human pressures, such as fishing, shipping, coastal development, pollution, and non-indigenous species (NIS) introductions, in addition to anthropogenically-driven global climate change. Nonetheless, this regional sea supports a high diversity of species and habitats, whose functioning provides a variety of ecosystem services, essential for human welfare. In 2017, OSPAR, the Northeast Atlantic Regional Seas Commission, delivered an assessment of marine biodiversity for the Northeast Atlantic. This assessment examined biodiversity indicators separately to identify changes in Northeast Atlantic biodiversity, but stopped short of determining the status of biodiversity for many species and habitats. Here, we expand on this work and for the first time, a semi-quantitative approach is applied to evaluate holistically the state of Northeast Atlantic marine biodiversity across marine food webs, from plankton to top predators, via fish, pelagic and benthic habitats, including xeno-biodiversity (i.e. NIS). Our analysis reveals widespread degradation in marine ecosystems and biodiversity, particularly for marine birds and coastal bottlenose dolphins, as well as for benthic habitats and fish in some regions. The poor biodiversity status of these ecosystem components is likely the result of cumulative effects of human activities, such as habitat destruction or disturbance, overexploitation, eutrophication, the introduction of NIS, and climate change. Bright spots are also revealed, such as recent signs of recovery in some fish and marine bird communities and recovery in harbour and grey seal populations and the condition of coastal benthic communities in some regions. The status of many indicators across all ecosystem components, but particularly for the novel pelagic habitats, food webs and NIS indicators, however, remains uncertain due to gaps in data, unclear pressure-state relationships, and the non-linear influence of some pressures on biodiversity indicators. Improving monitoring and data access and increasing understanding of pressure-state relationships, including those that are non-linear, is therefore a priority for enabling future assessments, as is consistent and stable resourcing for expert involvement