An approach to predict Spanish mortgage market activity using Google data

[EN] The aim of this paper is to use Google data to predict Spanish mortgage market activity during the period from January 2004 to January 2019. Thus, we collect monthly Google data for the keyword hipoteca, the Spanish expression for mortgage, and then, we perform a regression and an out-of-sample analysis. We find evidence that the use of Google data significantly improves prediction accuracy.S

Bond Yields, Sovereign Risk and Maturity Structure

[EN] The aim of this paper is to analyze the relation between maturity structure, sovereign bond yields and sovereign risk in the Economic and Monetary Union for the period of 1990–2013. The results confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between sovereign bond yields, sovereign risk and the maturity structure of sovereign debt, regardless of the proxy that is used to measure sovereign risk and the time variance of the variables employed. The results indicate that risk shortens the maturity structure of sovereign debt because it reduces the stock of long-term debt. The relationship between maturity structure and sovereign bond yields differs depending on the risk of the countries analyzed (non-monotonic relationship) and the differences between peripheral and core countries are greater for higher levels of the yields. If we control for the indebtedness level of these countries, the results show that the relationship between the sovereign bond yields and maturity strengthens as the debt level increases.S

Do sociodemographic factors influence the maturity structure of sovereign debt?

[EN] Increases in life expectancy, medical and technological advances, and falling birth rates have produced widespread population aging in most developed countries. In the context of the EU, the population aged over 65 years, representing only 10% of the total in 1950, will represent over 30% in 2050 according to the United Nations. This phenomenon not only has implications in the social field but also affects economic growth and many economic and financial decisions that relate to the investment horizon (Lee and Shin, 2019; Kamiguchi and Tamai, 2019; Lyons, Grable and Joo, 2018). According to Papademos (2007), population aging may have important political and economic implications on economic growth, monetary policy, the structure of financial markets, public finances, and international capital flows.S

An alternative approach to predicting bank credit risk in Europe with Google data

6 p.The aim of this paper is to construct an alternative approach based on a sentiment index to measure bank credit risk in European countries using an alternative approach instead of traditional measures. Specifically, we use Google data for a set of keywords related to bank credit risk to capture investor sentiment. The resulting index shows a great similarity to traditional indexes based on bank CDS. The out-of-sample analysis demonstrates that our sentiment index is helpful for predicting bank credit risk during periods of financial distress, since it enhances the accuracy of the estimations.S

Parenting practices of parents: their influence on the new issues in early childhood

Este trabajo tiene su origen en el interés por conocer el papel de la familia en el desarrollo del niño y en la génesis de la patología infantil. Actualmente, se han generado patrones relacionales diferentes y se detecta un importante cambio en las prácticas de crianza que los padres utilizan, que nos advierten de la necesidad de detección precoz de retrasos/trastornos del desarrollo emocional. Los factores de riesgo en el origen de problemáticas en la infancia es objeto de estudio de este trabajo. Planteamos la necesidad de sensibilizar a todos los profesionales que trabajan con la infancia sobre factores de riesgo asociados al niño y a la familia en los primeros años. La vigilancia del desarrollo por los padres, pediatras, maestros, equipos de atención temprana, constituyen una oportunidad ideal para la identificación precoz, pero requiere de una formación y una práctica profesional que incida más en el desarrollo emocional. Señalamos una propuesta de señales de alarma en el desarrollo emocional

Is Squatting a Good Business for the Security Industry? A Case Analysis from Spain

[EN] The aim of this paper is to analyze the relation between the rise of the squatter movement in Spain and the evolution of firms involved into the security and surveillance business. We hypothesize that the upsurge of this phenomenon might benefit the evolution of these companies. Using Google searches to measure the citizens’ attention and concerns to the squatter movement, we analyze their impact on the evolution of the unique security company listed in the Spanish stock market: Prosegur. The empirical analysis points out to a positive and significant relationship, which is robust to the inclusion of other market variables. Moreover, we find out that this relationship disappears or turns negative for other types of firms and for the stock market in general, suggesting that our measure of attention to the squatter movement might actually be a proxy for an impairment of the rule of law in Spain.S

What drives sovereign debt maturity in European countries?

[EN] The aim of this paper is to study the determinants of sovereign debt maturity for 23 European countries during the period between 1995 and 2013. For this purpose, we use quantile regressions with robust standard errors clustered by countries to consider the impact of the determinants in the entire distribution. The results indicate a positive relation between the level of debt of the country and sovereign debt maturity, particularly for countries with the lowest debt maturity. We also find evidence of a negative relationship between sovereign risk and debt maturity for the lowest and intermediate values of the debt maturity.S

First order transitions by conduction calorimetry: Application to deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate ferroelastic crystal under uniaxial pressure

The specific heat c and the heat power W exchanged by a Deuterated Potassium Dihydrogen Phosphate ferroelectric-ferroelastic crystal have been measured simultaneously for both decreasing and increasing temperature at a low constant rate (0.06 K/h) between 175 and 240 K. The measurements were carried out under controlled uniaxial stresses of 0.3 and 4.5±0.1 bar applied to face (110). At Tt=207.9 K, a first order transition is produced with anomalous specific heat behavior in the interval where the transition heat appears. This anomalous behavior is explained in terms of the temperature variation of the heat power during the transition. During cooling, the transition occurs with coexistence of phases, while during heating it seems that metastable states are reached. Excluding data affected by the transition heat, the specific heat behavior agrees with the predictions of a 2-4-6 Landau potential in the range of 4–15 K below Tt while logarithmic behavior is obtained in the range from Tt to 1 K below Tt. Data obtained under 0.3 and 4.5 bar uniaxial stresses exhibit the same behavior.Dirección General de Investigación Científica y Técnica. Gobierno de España-PB91-60

Study of the thermal behavior of sewage sludge from a WWTP in Cantabria (Spain) by TG-DSC-MS

According to European Directive and national regulations in Spain, techniques based on thermal decomposition are proposed for the sewage sludge disposal. In this work, the sludge from the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) of Casar de Periedo, in Cantabria (Spain) is studied by Thermogravimetry – Differential Scanning Calorimetry – Mass Spectrometry (TG –DSC – MS). A sample of this sludge was submitted, after drying, to different atmospheres: 100 % He, N2 /air or He/air 80/20 and 100 % air, from 20 to 900 ºC, to study primary decomposition reactions in pyrolysis, gasification and combustion respectively. The purpose was to determine the weight loss at different temperatures, the heat flow at each atmosphere and the presence of some gas products like H2, CO, CO2, CH4, or HCl, SO2, SO3, NO and NO2 released, these last five gases to know the contaminants emitted. Combustion conditions (air) rend the greatest mass loss and energy production. Reactions take place at lower temperatures, being mainly CO2 and H2O the products detected in MS, with little amounts of CH4, as it is expected for mainly total oxidation reactions. In gasification conditions, essayed with two atmospheres (N2-air and He-air), quantitative results found are similar, but the highest thermal conductivity of He produces exothermic reactions at lower temperatures, observed in the mass loss and heat flow profiles. From reactions of decomposition, partial oxidation and total oxidation, CO2, H2, H2O and CH4, were identified by MS. Pyrolysis conditions (He) produce the lowest mass loss and slightly endothermic reactions, mainly because of decomposition reactions. Higher H2 amounts were obtained at higher temperatures than in gasification conditions. No gas contaminant (HCl, SO2, SO3, NO and NO2) has been detected by MS, considering this sewage sludge as a “clean sludge”. Comparing the thermal behaviour of the sewage sludge of this plant to that obtained in the WWTP of Santander, the sludge from Casar de Periedo is more appropriated to thermal valorization.We are thankful to MICINN in Spain, National Plan for scientific Research, Development and innovation, for financial support under Project: MAT2010-18862