Data-driven scale extrapolation : estimating yearly discharge for a large region by small sub-basins

Large-scale hydrological models and land surface models are so far the only tools for assessing current and future water resources. Those models estimate discharge with large uncertainties, due to the complex interaction between climate and hydrology, the limited availability and quality of data, as well as model uncertainties. A new purely data-driven scale-extrapolation method to estimate discharge for a large region solely from selected small sub-basins, which are typically 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than the large region, is proposed. Those small sub-basins contain sufficient information, not only on climate and land surface, but also on hydrological characteristics for the large basin. In the Baltic Sea drainage basin, best discharge estimation for the gauged area was achieved with sub-basins that cover 5% of the gauged area. There exist multiple sets of sub-basins whose climate and hydrology resemble those of the gauged area equally well. Those multiple sets estimate annual discharge for the gauged area consistently well with 6% average error. The scale-extrapolation method is completely data-driven; therefore it does not force any modelling error into the prediction. The multiple predictions are expected to bracket the inherent variations and uncertainties of the climate and hydrology of the basin

Storskalig modellering av flödessvarstid ochavrinningsbildning : Effektiv parametrisering baserad på högupplöst topografi och hydrografi

Water has always had a controlling influence on the earth’s evolution. Understanding and modelling the large-scale hydrological cycle is important for climate prediction and water-resources studies. In recent years large-scale hydrological models, including the WASMOD-­M evaluated in the thesis, have increasingly become a main assessment tool for global water resources. The monthly version of WASMOD-M, the starting point of the thesis, revealed restraints imposed by limited hydrological and climate data quality and the need to reduce model-structure uncertainties. The model simulated the global water balance with a small volume error but was less successful in capturing the dynamics. In the last years, global high-quality, high-resolution topographies and hydro­graphies have become available. The main thrust of the thesis was the development of a daily WASMOD-M making use of these data to better capture the global water dynamics and to parameter­ise local non-linear processes into the large-scale model. Scale independency, parsimonious model structure, and computational efficiency were main concerns throughout the model development. A new scale-independent routing algorithm, named NRF for network-response function, using two aggregated high-resolution hydrographies, HYDRO1k and HydroSHEDS, was developed and tested in three river basins with different climates in China and North America. The algorithm preserves the spatially distributed time-delay information in the form of simple network-response functions for any low-resolution grid cell in a large-scale hydrological model. A distributed runoff-generation algorithm, named TRG for topography-derived runoff generation, was developed to represent the highly non-linear process at large scales. The algorithm, when inserted into the daily WASMOD-M and tested in same three basins, led to the same or a slightly improved performance compared to a one-layer VIC model, with one parameter less to be calibrated. The TRG algorithm also offered a more realistic spatial pattern for runoff generation. The thesis identified significant improvements in model performance when 1) local instead of global climate data were used, and 2) when the scale-independent NRF routing algorithm was used instead of a traditional storage-based routing algorithm. In the same time, spatial resolution of climate input and choice of high-resolution hydrography have secondary effects on model performance. Two high-resolution topographies and hydrographies were used and compared, and new tech­niques were developed to aggregate their information for use at large scales. The advantages and numerical efficiency of feeding high-resolution information into low-resolution global models were highlighted.Vatten har alltid varit en nyckelfaktor för jordens utveckling. Att förstå och kunna modellera det storska­liga vattenkretsloppet är betydelsefullt såväl för klimatförutsägelser som för studier av vattenresur­ser. På senare år har storskaliga hydrologiska modeller, däribland WASMOD-M som utvärderas i denna avhand­ling, i ökande utsträckning kommit att användas som huvudverktyg för utvärdering av globala vattenresurser. Den månatliga versionen av WASMOD-M, avhandlingens startpunkt, användes för att påvisa inskränk­ningar som låg i begränsande hydrologi- och klimatdata liksom behovet av att minska model­lens strukturella osäkerheter. Modellen simulerade den globala vattenbalansen med ett mycket litet volymfel (avrinningens långtidsmedelvärde) men var mindre lyckosam att efterlikna dynamiken. Under se­nare tid har globala topografiska och hydrografiska data med hög rumslig upplösning och kvalitet blivit tillgängliga. Avhandlingens huvudsakliga drivkraft var att utveckla WASMOD-M med hjälp av dessa data i syfte att bättre fånga den globala vattendynamiken och för att parametrisera lokala ickelin­jära processer i den storskaliga modellen. Under hela modellutvecklingen har skaloberoende, lågparametrise­rad modellstruktur och numerisk beräkningseffektivitet varit viktiga bivillkor. En ny skaloberoende svarstidsalgoritm, benämnd NRF (network-response function), som utnyttjar två aggregerade högupplösta hydrografier, HYDRO1k och HydroSHEDS, utvecklades och provades i tre avrinningsområden med olika klimat i Kina och Nordamerika. Algoritmen bevarar den rumsligt fördelade informationen om koncentrationstider i form av enkla responsfunktioner för vattendragsnä­tet för godtyckliga lågupplösta beräkningsrutor in en storskalig hydrologisk modell. En distribuerad algoritm för avrinningsbildning, benämnd TRG (topography-derived runoff genera­tion), utvecklades för att representera den höggradigt ickelinjära processen i större skalor. Algoritmen användes i den dagliga WASMOD-M och provades i samma tre avrinningsområden som ovan. Modellprestanda blev lika bra eller bättre än en enlagers VIC-modell fast med en parameter mindre att kalibrera. TRG-algoritmen gav ett rimligare rumsligt mönster för avrinningsbildningen. Avhandlingen har identifierat påtagliga förbättringar i modellprestanda när 1) lokala i stället för globala klimatdata användes och 2) när NRF, den skaloberoende svarstidsalgoritmen användes i stället för en traditionell magasinsbaserad svarstidsalgoritm. Samtidigt har klimatdatas rumsliga upplösning och val av högupplöst hydrografi en andra ordningens inverkan på modellprestanda. Två högupplösta topografier och hydrografier användes och jämfördes, och nya tekniker utveckla­des för att aggregera deras informationsinnehåll i stora skalor. Fördelarna och den numeriska beräkningsef­fektiviteten av högupplöst information i lågupplösta globala modeller har belysts

Observed and simulated changes in extreme precipitation and cold surges in China: 1961–2005

In the present work, precipitation and temperature related climate extremes are examined, with a focus on Mainland China. The objectives of this study are a) to identify targeted climate extremes and their changes during the last decades, and b) to examine the ability of current global climate models to reproduce identified patterns of change. The observed change in extreme precipitation from 1961 to 2000 is investigated using a set of indices, and the change simulated by global climate models is evaluated. In order to find an appropriate gridding method for the extreme indices in model evaluations, the effects of two different methods for estimating indices from station data are examined: one set interpolated from indices at stations (EISTA) and the other calculated from gridded precipitation (EIGRID). Results show that there is a large difference between the two, especially at coarser resolution, and suggests that EIGRID indices are more appropriate to evaluate model simulated precipitation extremes. During the period in question, observed extreme precipitation amounts increased in most parts of China, the only exception being northern China, where there was a decreasing trend. The trend of consecutive dry days (CDD) observed there is generally opposite to that of extreme precipitation elsewhere in China, except in southeast China, where both extreme precipitation and CDD increased. Most of the studied global climate models tend to overestimate extreme precipitation amounts but underestimate CDD. The pattern of precipitation extremes is generally well captured in western China, while in eastern China, where the combination of the monsoon system and human activities (e.g., anthropogenic changes in land use and aerosols) affects climate variation, with the result that climate patterns are reproduced poorly by comparison. In regard to temperature-related extremes, the variation in the occurrence of winter cold surges in southeast China for the period from 1961 to 2005 is investigated. The identified cold surges are divided into 5 different groups based on the evolution pattern of the Siberian High (SH). Associated evolutions of the large-scale atmospheric circulation are investigated. Results suggest the importance of a SH amplification and pre-existing specific synoptic systems to the occurrence of cold surges. Investigating the long-term changes in cold surges of different groups, it is found that the SH-related cold surges (33%) have decreased in the last 20 years, while cold surges more closely associated with background atmospheric circulation systems, which often have a larger impact area (i.e., stronger cold air outbreak) than the SH-related ones, have increased since the early 1980s. Although the intensity of SH was relatively weak with warmer surface air temperatures over China during the period from 1980 to 2005, the total number of cold surges in this period was nearly identical to that of previous decades. This implies that future occurrences of cold surges in southeast China may remain at current levels, provided that the contribution from the SH-related surges does not change dramatically

Law and sustainable business in China

In order to establish an effective EU-China cooperation in the legal and economic field it is crucial for the European scholars and institutions to know the path undertaken by the Chinese government in the transition from a planned economy to an increasingly marketized one. The new stress on sustainability represents the last effort of legal construction undertaken by the Chinese government in order to modernize the Chinese legal system and drive it towards a deepest integration within the global legal arena. This book aims at reconstructing the principal developments towards a more sustainable process of growth that affect the legal environment of the system of \u201cdoing business in China\u201d, a system that in the last few decades has been in a context of continuous \u201cwork in progress\u201d

Two-step electronic response to magnetic ordering in a van der Waals ferromagnet

The two-dimensional material Cr2Ge2Te6 is a member of the class of insulating van der Waals (vdW) magnets. Here, using high resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy in a detailed temperature dependence study, we identify a clear response of the electronic structure to a dimensional crossover in the form of two distinct temperature scales marking onsets of modifications in the electronic structure. Specifically, we observe Te p-orbital-dominated bands to undergo changes at the Curie transition temperature TC while the Cr d-orbital-dominated bands begin evolving at a higher temperature scale. Combined with neutron scattering, density functional theory calculations, and Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the electronic system can be consistently understood to respond sequentially to the distinct temperatures at which in-plane and out-of-plane spin correlations exceed a characteristic length scale. Our findings reveal the sensitivity of the orbital-selective electronic structure for probing the dynamical evolution of local moment correlations in vdW insulating magnets