Trial protocol OPPTIMUM : does progesterone prophylaxis for the prevention of preterm labour improve outcome?

Background Preterm birth is a global problem, with a prevalence of 8 to 12% depending on location. Several large trials and systematic reviews have shown progestogens to be effective in preventing or delaying preterm birth in selected high risk women with a singleton pregnancy (including those with a short cervix or previous preterm birth). Although an improvement in short term neonatal outcomes has been shown in some trials these have not consistently been confirmed in meta-analyses. Additionally data on longer term outcomes is limited to a single trial where no difference in outcomes was demonstrated at four years of age of the child, despite those in the “progesterone” group having a lower incidence of preterm birth. Methods/Design The OPPTIMUM study is a double blind randomized placebo controlled trial to determine whether progesterone prophylaxis to prevent preterm birth has long term neonatal or infant benefit. Specifically it will study whether, in women with singleton pregnancy and at high risk of preterm labour, prophylactic vaginal natural progesterone, 200 mg daily from 22 – 34 weeks gestation, compared to placebo, improves obstetric outcome by lengthening pregnancy thus reducing the incidence of preterm delivery (before 34 weeks), improves neonatal outcome by reducing a composite of death and major morbidity, and leads to improved childhood cognitive and neurosensory outcomes at two years of age. Recruitment began in 2009 and is scheduled to close in Spring 2013. As of May 2012, over 800 women had been randomized in 60 sites. Discussion OPPTIMUM will provide further evidence on the effectiveness of vaginal progesterone for prevention of preterm birth and improvement of neonatal outcomes in selected groups of women with singleton pregnancy at high risk of preterm birth. Additionally it will determine whether any reduction in the incidence of preterm birth is accompanied by improved childhood outcome

Inherited thrombophilia in children with venous thromboembolism and the familial risk of thromboembolism: an observational study

Screening for inherited thrombophilia (IT) is controversial; persons at high risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) who benefit from screening need to be identified. We tested 533 first-and second-degree relatives of 206 pediatric VTE patients for IT (antithrombin, protein C, protein S, factor V G1691A, factor II G20210A) and determined the incidence of symptomatic VTE relative to their IT status. The risk for VTE was significantly increased among family members with, versus without, IT (hazard ratio ‫؍‬ 7.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0-14.5; P < .001) and highest among carriers of antithrombin, protein C, or protein S deficiency (hazard ratio ‫؍‬ 25.7; 95% CI, 12.2-54.2; P < .001). Annual incidences of VTE were 2.82% (95% CI, 1.63%-4.80%) among family members found to be carriers of antithrombin, protein C, or protein S deficiency, 0.42% (0.12%-0.53%) for factor II G202010A, 0.25% (0.12%-0.53%) for factor V G1691A, and 0.10% (0.06%-0.17%) in relatives with no IT. Given the high absolute risk of VTE in relatives with protein C, protein S, and antithrombin deficiency, we suggest screening for these forms of hereditary thrombophilia in children with VTE and their relatives. Interventional studies are required to assess whether thromboembolism can be prevented in this highrisk population. (Blood. 2012;120(7): 1510-1515

Inter-Rater Reliability of the CASCADE Criteria: Challenges in Classifying Arteriopathies.

Background and purposeThere are limited data about the reliability of subtype classification in childhood arterial ischemic stroke, an issue that prompted the IPSS (International Pediatric Stroke Study) to develop the CASCADE criteria (Childhood AIS Standardized Classification and Diagnostic Evaluation). Our purpose was to determine the CASCADE criteria's reliability in a population of children with stroke.MethodsEight raters from the IPSS reviewed neuroimaging and clinical records of 64 cases (16 cases each) randomly selected from a prospectively collected cohort of 113 children with arterial ischemic stroke and classified them using the CASCADE criteria. Clinical data abstracted included history of present illness, risk factors, and acute imaging. Agreement among raters was measured by unweighted κ statistic.ResultsThe CASCADE criteria demonstrated a moderate inter-rater reliability, with an overall κ statistic of 0.53 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.39-0.67). Cardioembolic and bilateral cerebral arteriopathy subtypes had much higher agreement (κ=0.84; 95% CI=0.70-0.99; and κ=0.90; 95% CI=0.71-1.00, respectively) than cases of aortic/cervical arteriopathy (κ=0.36; 95% CI=0.01-0.71), unilateral focal cerebral arteriopathy of childhood (FCA; κ=0.49; 95% CI=0.23-0.76), and small vessel arteriopathy of childhood (κ=-0.012; 95% CI=-0.04 to 0.01).ConclusionsThe CASCADE criteria have moderate reliability when used by trained and experienced raters, which suggests that it can be used for classification in multicenter pediatric stroke studies. However, the moderate reliability of the arteriopathic subtypes suggests that further refinement is needed for defining subtypes. Such revisions may reduce the variability in the literature describing risk factors, recurrence, and outcomes associated with childhood arteriopathy

Towards a consensus-based classification of childhood arterial ischemic stroke.

Background and purposeThe implementation of uniform nomenclature and classification in adult arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) has been critical for defining outcomes and recurrence risks according to etiology and in developing risk-stratified treatments. In contrast, current classification and nomenclature in childhood AIS are often overlapping or contradictory. Our purpose was to develop a comprehensive consensus-based classification system for childhood AIS.MethodsUsing a modified-Delphi method, members of the International Pediatric Stroke Study (IPSS) developed the Childhood AIS Standardized Classification And Diagnostic Evaluation (CASCADE) criteria. Two groups of pediatric stroke specialists from the IPSS classified 7 test cases using 2 methods each: (1) classification typical of the individual clinician's current clinical practice; and (2) classification based on the CASCADE criteria. Group 1 underwent in-person training in the utilization of the CASCADE criteria. Group 2 classified the same cases via an online survey, including definitions but without training. Inter-rater reliability (IRR) was assessed via multi-rater unweighted κ-statistic.ResultsIn Group 1 (with training), IRR was improved using CASCADE criteria (κ=0.78, 95% CI=[0.49, 0.94]), compared with typical clinical practice (κ=0.40, 95% CI=[0.11, 0.60]). In Group 2 (without training), IRR was lower than among trained raters (κ=0.61, 95% CI=[0.29, 0.77]), but higher than current practice (κ=0.23, 95% CI=[0.03, 0.36]).ConclusionsA new, consensus-based classification system for childhood AIS, the CASCADE criteria, can be used to classify cases with good IRR. These preliminary findings suggest that the CASCADE criteria may be particularity useful in the setting of prospective multicenter studies in childhood-onset AIS, where standardized training of investigators is feasible

Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

Background: Key to the control of pandemic influenza are surveillance systems that raise alarms rapidly and sensitively. In addition, they must minimise false alarms during a normal influenza season. We develop a method that uses historical syndromic influenza data from the existing surveillance system 'SERVIS' (Scottish Enhanced Respiratory Virus Infection Surveillance) for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Scotland. Methods: We develop an algorithm based on the weekly case ratio (WCR) of reported ILI cases to generate an alarm for pandemic influenza. From the seasonal influenza data from 13 Scottish health boards, we estimate the joint probability distribution of the country-level WCR and the number of health boards showing synchronous increases in reported influenza cases over the previous week. Pandemic cases are sampled with various case reporting rates from simulated pandemic influenza infections and overlaid with seasonal SERVIS data from 2001 to 2007. Using this combined time series we test our method for speed of detection, sensitivity and specificity. Also, the 2008-09 SERVIS ILI cases are used for testing detection performances of the three methods with a real pandemic data. Results: We compare our method, based on our simulation study, to the moving-average Cumulative Sums (Mov-Avg Cusum) and ILI rate threshold methods and find it to be more sensitive and rapid. For 1% case reporting and detection specificity of 95%, our method is 100% sensitive and has median detection time (MDT) of 4 weeks while the Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods are, respectively, 97% and 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. At 99% specificity, our method remains 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. Although the threshold method maintains its sensitivity of 100% with MDT of 5 weeks, sensitivity of Mov-Avg Cusum declines to 92% with increased MDT of 6 weeks. For a two-fold decrease in the case reporting rate (0.5%) and 99% specificity, the WCR and threshold methods, respectively, have MDT of 5 and 6 weeks with both having sensitivity close to 100% while the Mov-Avg Cusum method can only manage sensitivity of 77% with MDT of 6 weeks. However, the WCR and Mov-Avg Cusum methods outperform the ILI threshold method by 1 week in retrospective detection of the 2009 pandemic in Scotland. Conclusions: While computationally and statistically simple to implement, the WCR algorithm is capable of raising alarms, rapidly and sensitively, for influenza pandemics against a background of seasonal influenza. Although the algorithm was developed using the SERVIS data, it has the capacity to be used at other geographic scales and for different disease systems where buying some early extra time is critical

Spectrum of KV2.1 Dysfunction in KCNB1‐Associated Neurodevelopmental Disorders

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/152486/1/ana25607.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/152486/2/ana25607_am.pd

Addressing climate change with behavioral science: a global intervention tournament in 63 countries

Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate mitigation outcomes: beliefs, policy support, information sharing intention, and an effortful tree-planting behavioral task. Across 59,440 participants from 63 countries, the interventions’ effectiveness was small, largely limited to nonclimate skeptics, and differed across outcomes: Beliefs were strengthened mostly by decreasing psychological distance (by 2.3%), policy support by writing a letter to a future-generation member (2.6%), information sharing by negative emotion induction (12.1%), and no intervention increased the more effortful behavior—several interventions even reduced tree planting. Last, the effects of each intervention differed depending on people’s initial climate beliefs. These findings suggest that the impact of behavioral climate interventions varies across audiences and target behaviors

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)