The art and science of climate model tuning

PublishedThis is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. The process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate modeling community. In climate models, the variety and complexity of physical processes involved, and their interplay through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, must be summarized in a series of approximate sub-models. Most sub-models depend on uncertain parameters. Tuning consists of adjusting the values of these parameters to bring the solution as a whole into line with aspects of the observed climate. Tuning is an essential aspect of climate modeling with its own scientific issues, which is probably not advertised enough outside the community of model developers. Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections. Here we present the definition and rationale behind model tuning, review specific methodological aspects, and survey the diversity of tuning approaches used in current climate models. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called ‘objective‘ methods in climate model tuning. We discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.The authors would like to thank the World Climate Research Program and its Working Group on Coupled Modeling for initiating and helping organize the workshop on model tuning in October 2014 in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. Work at LLNL was performed under the auspices the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. DE-AC52-07NA27344. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sup- ported by the U.S. National Science Foundation. The contribution of Yun Qian was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science as part of the Earth System Modeling Program. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL0183

Evaluation of large-Eddy simulations via observations of nocturnal marine stratocumulus

Data from the first research flight (RF01) of the second Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus (DYCOMS-II) field study are used to evaluate the fidelity with which large-eddy simulations (LESs) can represent the turbulent structure of stratocumulus-topped boundary layers. The initial data and forcings for this case placed it in an interesting part of parameter space, near the boundary where cloud-top mixing is thought to render the cloud layer unstable on the one hand, or tending toward a decoupled structure on the other hand. The basis of this evaluation consists of sixteen 4-h simulations from 10 modeling centers over grids whose vertical spacing was 5 m at the cloud-top interface and whose horizontal spacing was 35 m. Extensive sensitivity studies of both the configuration of the case and the numerical setup also enhanced the analysis. Overall it was found that (i) if efforts are made to reduce spurious mixing at cloud top, either by refining the vertical grid or limiting the effects of the subgrid model in this region, then the observed turbulent and thermodynamic structure of the layer can be reproduced with some fidelity; (ii) the base, or native configuration of most simulations greatly overestimated mixing at cloud top, tending toward a decoupled layer in which cloud liquid water path and turbulent intensities were grossly underestimated; (iii) the sensitivity of the simulations to the representation of mixing at cloud top is, to a certain extent, amplified by particulars of this case. Overall the results suggest that the use of LESs to map out the behavior of the stratocumulus-topped boundary layer in this interesting region of parameter space requires a more compelling representation of processes at cloud top. In the absence of significant leaps in the understanding of subgrid-scale (SGS) physics, such a representation can only be achieved by a significant refinement in resolution—a refinement that, while conceivable given existing resources, is probably still beyond the reach of most centers

An Overview of the Atmospheric Component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1, the atmospheric component of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model is described. The model began as a fork of the wellâ known Community Atmosphere Model, but it has evolved in new ways, and coding, performance, resolution, physical processes (primarily cloud and aerosols formulations), testing and development procedures now differ significantly. Vertical resolution was increased (from 30 to 72 layers), and the model top extended to 60 km (~0.1 hPa). A simple ozone photochemistry predicts stratospheric ozone, and the model now supports increased and more realistic variability in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. An optional improved treatment of lightâ absorbing particle deposition to snowpack and ice is available, and stronger connections with Earth system biogeochemistry can be used for some science problems. Satellite and groundâ based cloud and aerosol simulators were implemented to facilitate evaluation of clouds, aerosols, and aerosolâ cloud interactions. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution, increased complexity, and more predicted and transported variables have increased the model computational cost and changed the simulations considerably. These changes required development of alternate strategies for tuning and evaluation as it was not feasible to â brute forceâ tune the highâ resolution configurations, so shortâ term hindcasts, perturbed parameter ensemble simulations, and regionally refined simulations provided guidance on tuning and parameterization sensitivity to higher resolution. A brief overview of the model and model climate is provided. Model fidelity has generally improved compared to its predecessors and the CMIP5 generation of climate models.Plain Language SummaryThis study provides an overview of a new computer model of the Earth’s atmosphere that is used as one component of the Department of Energy’s latest Earth system model. The model can be used to help understand past, present, and future changes in Earth’s behavior as the system responds to changes in atmospheric composition (like pollution and greenhouse gases), land, and water use and to explore how the atmosphere interacts with other components of the Earth system (ocean, land, biology, etc.). Physical, chemical, and biogeochemical processes treated within the atmospheric model are described, and pointers to previous and recent work are listed to provide additional information. The model is compared to presentâ day observations and evaluated for some important tests that provide information about what could happen to clouds and the environment as changes occur. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are listed, as well as opportunities for future work.Key PointsA brief description and evaluation is provided for the atmospheric component of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System ModelModel fidelity has generally improved compared to predecessors and models participating in past international model evaluationsStrengths and weaknesses of the model, as well as opportunities for future work, are describedPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151811/1/jame20932_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151811/2/jame20932.pd

Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations

Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m−2 [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m−2 [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing

Adherence measurements and corrosion resistance in primer/hot-dip galvanized steel systems

This paper focuses on the adherence during ageing of a primer (made of polyester resins crosslinked with melamine) applied onto hot-dip galvanized (HDG) steel for coil coating application and its influence on corrosion protection. A chromium-free surface treatment, composed of fluorotitanic acid, phosphoric acid, manganese phosphate, and vinylphenol was applied on the HDG steel to obtain high corrosion resistance and high adherence of a polyester and melamine primer. The influence of the manganese phosphate on the corrosion and adherence was investigated. To measure the adherence between the metal and the primer, a three-point flexure test was set up. The adherence was then linked with corrosion resistance during ageing, using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy

The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Overview and Evaluation at Standard Resolution

This work documents the first version of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) new Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). We focus on the standard resolution of the fully coupled physical model designed to address DOE mission-relevant water cycle questions. Its components include atmosphere and land (110-km grid spacing), ocean and sea ice (60 km in the midlatitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles), and river transport (55 km) models. This base configuration will also serve as a foundation for additional configurations exploring higher horizontal resolution as well as augmented capabilities in the form of biogeochemistry and cryosphere configurations. The performance of E3SMv1 is evaluated by means of a standard set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations consisting of a long preindustrial control, historical simulations (ensembles of fully coupled and prescribed SSTs) as well as idealized CO2 forcing simulations. The model performs well overall with biases typical of other CMIP-class models, although the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weaker than many CMIP-class models. While the E3SMv1 historical ensemble captures the bulk of the observed warming between preindustrial (1850) and present day, the trajectory of the warming diverges from observations in the second half of the twentieth century with a period of delayed warming followed by an excessive warming trend. Using a two-layer energy balance model, we attribute this divergence to the model’s strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (ERFari+aci = -1.65 W/m2) and high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS = 5.3 K).Plain Language SummaryThe U.S. Department of Energy funded the development of a new state-of-the-art Earth system model for research and applications relevant to its mission. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) consists of five interacting components for the global atmosphere, land surface, ocean, sea ice, and rivers. Three of these components (ocean, sea ice, and river) are new and have not been coupled into an Earth system model previously. The atmosphere and land surface components were created by extending existing components part of the Community Earth System Model, Version 1. E3SMv1’s capabilities are demonstrated by performing a set of standardized simulation experiments described by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima protocol at standard horizontal spatial resolution of approximately 1° latitude and longitude. The model reproduces global and regional climate features well compared to observations. Simulated warming between 1850 and 2015 matches observations, but the model is too cold by about 0.5 °C between 1960 and 1990 and later warms at a rate greater than observed. A thermodynamic analysis of the model’s response to greenhouse gas and aerosol radiative affects may explain the reasons for the discrepancy.Key PointsThis work documents E3SMv1, the first version of the U.S. DOE Energy Exascale Earth System ModelThe performance of E3SMv1 is documented with a set of standard CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations comprising nearly 3,000 yearsE3SMv1 has a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (5.3 K) and strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (-1.65 W/m2)Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151288/1/jame20860_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151288/2/jame20860.pd

Calcium Triggered Lα-H2 Phase Transition Monitored by Combined Rapid Mixing and Time-Resolved Synchrotron SAXS

BACKGROUND: Awad et al. reported on the Ca(2+)-induced transitions of dioleoyl-phosphatidylglycerol (DOPG)/monoolein (MO) vesicles to bicontinuous cubic phases at equilibrium conditions. In the present study, the combination of rapid mixing and time-resolved synchrotron small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) was applied for the in-situ investigations of fast structural transitions of diluted DOPG/MO vesicles into well-ordered nanostructures by the addition of low concentrated Ca(2+) solutions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Under static conditions and the in absence of the divalent cations, the DOPG/MO system forms large vesicles composed of weakly correlated bilayers with a d-spacing of approximately 140 A (L(alpha)-phase). The utilization of a stopped-flow apparatus allowed mixing these DOPG/MO vesicles with a solution of Ca(2+) ions within 10 milliseconds (ms). In such a way the dynamics of negatively charged PG to divalent cation interactions, and the kinetics of the induced structural transitions were studied. Ca(2+) ions have a very strong impact on the lipidic nanostructures. Intriguingly, already at low salt concentrations (DOPG/Ca(2+)>2), Ca(2+) ions trigger the transformation from bilayers to monolayer nanotubes (inverted hexagonal phase, H(2)). Our results reveal that a binding ratio of 1 Ca(2+) per 8 DOPG is sufficient for the formation of the H(2) phase. At 50 degrees C a direct transition from the vesicles to the H(2) phase was observed, whereas at ambient temperature (20 degrees C) a short lived intermediate phase (possibly the cubic Pn3m phase) coexisting with the H(2) phase was detected. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The strong binding of the divalent cations to the negatively charged DOPG molecules enhances the negative spontaneous curvature of the monolayers and causes a rapid collapsing of the vesicles. The rapid loss of the bilayer stability and the reorganization of the lipid molecules within ms support the argument that the transition mechanism is based on a leaky fusion of the vesicles

Two Chromogranin A-Derived Peptides Induce Calcium Entry in Human Neutrophils by Calmodulin-Regulated Calcium Independent Phospholipase A2

Background: Antimicrobial peptides derived from the natural processing of chromogranin A (CgA) are co-secreted with catecholamines upon stimulation of chromaffin cells. Since PMNs play a central role in innate immunity, we examine responses by PMNs following stimulation by two antimicrobial CgA-derived peptides. Methodology/Principal Findings: PMNs were treated with different concentrations of CgA-derived peptides in presence of several drugs. Calcium mobilization was observed by using flow cytometry and calcium imaging experiments. Immunocytochemistry and confocal microscopy have shown the intracellular localization of the peptides. The calmodulin-binding and iPLA2 activating properties of the peptides were shown by Surface Plasmon Resonance and iPLA2 activity assays. Finally, a proteomic analysis of the material released after PMNs treatment with CgA-derived peptides was performed by using HPLC and Nano-LC MS-MS. By using flow cytometry we first observed that after 15 s, in presence of extracellular calcium, Chromofungin (CHR) or Catestatin (CAT) induce a concentration-dependent transient increase of intracellular calcium. In contrast, in absence of extra cellular calcium the peptides are unable to induce calcium depletion from the stores after 10 minutes exposure. Treatment with 2-APB (2-aminoethoxydiphenyl borate), a store operated channels (SOCs) blocker, inhibits completely the calcium entry, as shown by calcium imaging. We also showed that they activate iPLA2 as the two CaM-binding factors (W7 and CMZ) and that the two sequences can be aligned with the two CaMbinding domains reported for iPLA2. We finally analyzed by HPLC and Nano-LC MS-MS the material released by PMNs following stimulation by CHR and CAT. We characterized several factors important for inflammation and innate immunity. Conclusions/Significance: For the first time, we demonstrate that CHR and CAT, penetrate into PMNs, inducing extracellular calcium entry by a CaM-regulated iPLA2 pathway. Our study highlights the role of two CgA-derived peptides in the active communication between neuroendocrine and immune systems