The digital economy and society: a preliminary commentary

Virtually all technologies that humans have invented or will invent present both benefits and risks. The history of humankind is that of invention, development and exploitation of technologies while managing their downsides. However, it is the speed, scope and pervasiveness of digital technological change across virtually every aspect of human endeavour that generate an enormous array of possible implications. Such characteristics undoubtedly set the digital revolution (sometimes called the fourth industrial revolution) apart from past technological revolutions in the way they challenge aspects of human behaviour and social institutions

Models and numbers: Representing the world or imposing order?

We argue for a foundational epistemic claim and a hypothesis about the production and uses of mathematical epidemiological models, exploring the consequences for our political and socio-economic lives. First, in order to make the best use of scientific models, we need to understand why models are not truly representational of our world, but are already pitched towards various uses. Second, we need to understand the implicit power relations in numbers and models in public policy, and, thus, the implications for good governance if numbers and models are used as the exclusive drivers of decision making.acceptedVersio

Brokerage at the science–policy interface: from conceptual framework to practical guidance

This article analyses the conceptual framework of brokerage at the science–policy interface as an important boundary function to support trusted and transparent government decision-making. Policymaking involves a broad range of considerations, but science advice and evidence is critical to help inform decisions. However, mechanisms for requesting and receiving advice from the scientific community are not straightforward, considering that the knowledge needed generally spans multiple disciplines of the natural and social sciences. Once evidence has been appropriately synthesized, there remains the need to ensure an effective and unbiased translation to the policy and political community. The concept of knowledge brokerage revolves around an understanding of the ontologies, cultures and languages of both the policy community and the science community, in order to effectively link the two bidirectionally. In practical terms, this means ensuring that the information needs of the former are understood, and that the type and form of information offered by the latter aligns with those needs. Ideally, knowledge brokers act at the interface between researchers/experts and decision-makers to present evidence in a way that informs policy options but does not determine policy development. Conceptually, negotiating this interface involves acknowledging that values are embedded in the scientific process and evidentiary synthesis, and in particular, in considering the inferential risks inherent in making evidence claims. Brokers are faced with navigating complex policy dynamics and balancing information asymmetries between research providers and users. Building on the conceptual analysis and examination of the nuances of brokerage observed in practice, we propose a set of guidelines to translate the concepts of brokerage to practical application.publishedVersio

Should policy makers trust composite indices? A commentary on the pitfalls of inappropriate indices for policy formation

Background This paper critically discusses the use and merits of global indices, in particular, the Global Health Security Index (GHSI; Cameron et al. https://www.ghsindex.org/#l-section--map) in times of an imminent crisis, such as the current pandemic. This index ranked 195 countries according to their expected preparedness in the case of a pandemic or other biological threat. The coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic provides the background to compare each country's predicted performance from the GHSI with the actual performance. In general, there is an inverted relation between predicted versus actual performance, i.e. the predicted top performers are among those that are the worst hit. Obviously, this reflects poorly on the potential policy uses of this index in imminent crisis management. Methods The paper analyses the GHSI and identifies why it may have struggled to predict actual pandemic preparedness as evidenced by the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper also uses two different data sets, one from the Worldmeter on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemics, and the other from the International Network for Government Science Advice (INGSA) Evidence-to-Policy Tracker, to draw comparisons between the actual introduction of pandemic response policies and the corresponding death rate in 29 selected countries. Results This paper analyses the reasons for the poor match between prediction and reality in the index, and mentions six general observations applying to global indices in this respect. These observations are based on methodological and conceptual analyses. The level of abstraction in these global indices builds uncertainties upon uncertainties and hides implicit value assumptions, which potentially removes them from the policy needs on the ground. Conclusions From the analysis, the question is raised if the policy community might have better tools for decision-making in a pandemic. On the basis of data from the INGSA Evidence-to-Policy Tracker, and with backing in studies from social psychology and philosophy of science, some simple heuristics are suggested, which may be more useful than a global index.publishedVersio

Towards Post-Pandemic Sustainable and Ethical Food Systems

The current global COVID-19 pandemic has led to a deep and multidimensional crisis across all sectors of society. As countries contemplate their mobility and social-distancing policy restrictions, we have a unique opportunity to re-imagine the deliberative frameworks and value priorities in our food systems. Pre-pandemic food systems at global, national, regional and local scales already needed revision to chart a common vision for sustainable and ethical food futures. Re-orientation is also needed by the relevant sciences, traditionally siloed in their disciplines and without adequate attention paid to how the food system problem is variously framed by diverse stakeholders according to their values. From the transdisciplinary perspective of food ethics, we argue that a post-pandemic scheme focused on bottom-up, regional, cross-sectoral and non-partisan deliberation may provide the re-orientation and benchmarks needed for not only more sustainable, but also more ethical food futures.publishedVersio

Impaired Perinatal Growth and Longevity: A Life History Perspective

Life history theory proposes that early-life cues induce highly integrated responses in traits associated with energy partitioning, maturation, reproduction, and aging such that the individual phenotype is adaptively more appropriate to the anticipated environment. Thus, maternal and/or neonatally derived nutritional or endocrine cues suggesting a threatening environment may favour early growth and reproduction over investment in tissue reserve and repair capacity. These may directly affect longevity, as well as prioritise insulin resistance and capacity for fat storage, thereby increasing susceptibility to metabolic dysfunction and obesity. These shifts in developmental trajectory are associated with long-term expression changes in specific genes, some of which may be underpinned by epigenetic processes. This normative process of developmental plasticity may prove to be maladaptive in human environments in transition towards low extrinsic mortality and energy-dense nutrition, leading to the development of an inappropriate phenotype with decreased potential for longevity and/or increased susceptibility to metabolic disease

Thrifty metabolic programming in rats is induced by both maternal undernutrition and postnatal leptin treatment, but masked in the presence of both: implications for models of developmental programming.

BACKGROUND: Maternal undernutrition leads to an increased risk of metabolic disorders in offspring including obesity and insulin resistance, thought to be due to a programmed thrifty phenotype which is inappropriate for a subsequent richer nutritional environment. In a rat model, both male and female offspring of undernourished mothers are programmed to become obese, however postnatal leptin treatment gives discordant results between males and females. Leptin treatment is able to rescue the adverse programming effects in the female offspring of undernourished mothers, but not in their male offspring. Additionally, in these rats, postnatal leptin treatment of offspring from normally-nourished mothers programmes their male offspring to develop obesity in later life, while there is no comparable effect in their female offspring. RESULTS: We show by microarray analysis of the female liver transcriptome that both maternal undernutrition and postnatal leptin treatment independently induce a similar thrifty transcriptional programme affecting carbohydrate metabolism, amino acid metabolism and oxidative stress genes. Paradoxically, however, the combination of both stimuli restores a more normal transcriptional environment. This demonstrates that "leptin reversal" is a global phenomenon affecting all genes involved in fetal programming by maternal undernourishment and leptin treatment. The thrifty transcriptional programme was associated with pro-inflammatory markers and downregulation of adaptive immune mediators, particularly MHC class I genes, suggesting a deficit in antigen presentation in these offspring. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a revised model of developmental programming reconciling the male and female observations, in which there are two competing programmes which collectively drive liver transcription. The first element is a thrifty metabolic phenotype induced by early life growth restriction independently of leptin levels. The second is a homeostatic set point calibrated in response to postnatal leptin surge, which is able to over-ride the metabolic programme. This "calibration model" for the postnatal leptin surge, if applicable in humans, may have implications for understanding responses to catch-up growth in infants. Additionally, the identification of an antigen presentation deficit associated with metabolic thriftiness may relate to a previously observed correlation between birth season (a proxy for gestational undernutrition) and infectious disease mortality in rural African communities

Knowledge exchange through science diplomacy to assist disaster risk reduction

This paper analyses science diplomacy efforts to reduce disaster risks and proposes establishing national knowledge exchange centers (KECs) to help individual states adhere to their Sendai Framework goals. KECs are considered to be interconnected globally and work together to promote resilience efforts by facilitating sharing of information and strategies in risk monitoring, assessment, and ultimately reduction across the globe. KECs can provide high-quality scientific evidence for informed decisionmaking along with a component related to disaster science media to ensure that appropriate knowledge reaches a variety of people who need it in different forms tailored for them. KECs can promote transdisciplinary education in disaster-related science diplomacy (i.e., disaster diplomacy). The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the International Science Council (ISC) can provide assistance to KECs through UNDRR National Platforms and ISC Members