Prediction regions for interval-valued time series

We approximate probabilistic forecasts for interval-valued time series by offering alternative approaches. After fitting a possibly non-Gaussian bivariate VAR model to the center/log-range system, we transform prediction regions (analytical and bootstrap) for this system into regions for center/range and upper/lower bounds systems. Monte Carlo simulations show that bootstrap methods are preferred according to several new metrics. For daily S&P500 low/high returns, we build joint conditional prediction regions of the return level and volatility. We illustrate the usefulness of obtaining bootstrap forecasts regions for low/high returns by developing a trading strategy and showing its profitability when compared to using point forecasts.Gloria González-Rivera acknowledges financial support from the 2015/2016 Chair of Excellence UC3M/Banco de Santander and the UC-Riverside Academic Senate grants. Esther Ruiz and Gloria González-Rivera are grateful to the Spanish Government contract grant ECO2015-70331-C2-2-R (MINECO/FEDER)

La Imagen y la Narrativa como Herramienta para el Abordaje Psicosocial en Escenarios de Violencia. Bogotá D.C.

El conflicto armado en Colombia ha sido sin duda alguna una de las mayores problemáticas sociales que durante más de 50 años ha marcado negativamente el desarrollo de nuestra nación, impactando en la economía, en la sociedad, en la cultura. Influyendo también en el adecuado desarrollo social de las víctimas. Según las estadísticas del Registro único de Víctimas, en el caso colombiano desde el año 1985 y hasta el 2018, siete millones 816 mil personas han huido por la violencia, superando a Siria con 6 millones 183 mil desplazados internos, y a países africanos como El Congo, Somalia, Etiopía, Nigeria y el Yemen que viven largos y complejos conflicto armados. (Jairo Torazona, 2019, RCN Radio) Las repercusiones tanto económica como sociales y culturales, principalmente, de las comunidades que han padecido la vulnerabilidad de todos sus derechos, se han visto afectadas por esta confrontación armada que ha suscitado mucha pobreza, atraso e incertidumbre en lo que pudo significar un buen avance en el desarrollo socio económico Colombiano. Con esta constante generación de conflictos, sociales. El pueblo Colombiano se ha visto inmerso en un sinnúmero de traumas emocionales, incertidumbres e inseguridades, que no le han permitido la adaptación y acoplamientos necesarios para impulsar una dinámica grupal, económica y de progreso que hicieran posible el desarrollo de la nación. El papel del psicólogo, está supeditado a una recuperación constante y progresiva de la parte emocional del individuo víctima de estos conflictos. Tratando de readaptarlo 4 socialmente, para que su funcionalidad emocional se concentre en los hechos presentes y no en los funestos recuerdos vividos. En este documento se abordó "El caso de las comunidades de Cacarica" en el cual se manifiesta un escenario de violencia. Hechos que se asemeja a la realidad del día a día en el pueblo Colombiano. En este análisis contemplamos los emergentes psicosociales y el impacto que genera para la población dicha situación a la vez que establecemos acciones de apoyo y estrategias psicosociales para facilitar una recuperación individual y grupal en la comunidad afectada.The armed conflict in Colombia has undoubtedly been one of the greatest social problems that for more than 50 years has negatively marked the development of our nation, impacting the economy, society, and culture. Also influencing the adequate social development of the victims. According to the statistics of the Single Registry of Victims, in the Colombian case from 1985 to 2018, 7 million 816 thousand people have fled due to violence, surpassing Syria with 6 million 183 thousand internally displaced persons, and African countries such as The Congo. , Somalia, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Yemen experiencing long and complex armed conflicts. (Jairo Torazona) The economic, social and cultural repercussions, mainly, of the communities that have suffered the vulnerability of all their rights, have been affected by this armed confrontation, which has created a lot of poverty, backwardness and uncertainty in what could have meant a good advance in Colombian socio-economic development. With this constant generation of social conflicts. The Colombian people have seen immersion in an endless number of emotional traumas, uncertainties and insecurities, which have not allowed them the adaptation and couplings necessary to promote a group, economic and progress dynamic that made the development of the nation possible. The role of the psychologist is subject to a constant and progressive recovery of the emotional part of the individual who suffers from these conflicts. Trying to readapt it socially, so that its emotional functionality is focused on the present events and not on the terrible memories lived. 6 This document addressed "The case of the communities of Cacarica" in which a scenario of violence was manifested. Facts that resembles the reality of the day to day in the Colombian people. In this analysis we contemplate the emerging psychosocial and the impact that this situation generates for the population while establishing support actions and psychosocial strategies to facilitate individual and group recovery in the affected community

Growth in Stress

We propose a new global risk index, Growth-in-Stress (GiS), that measures the expected decrease in a country GDP growth as the global factors, which drive world growth, are subject to stressful conditions. Stress is measured as the 95% contours of the joint probability distribution of the factors. With GDP growth rates of a sample of 87 countries in the World Bank and International Monetary Fund databases and for the period 1985 to 2015, we extract three global factors: a first world growth factor driven mainly by all industrial and emerging countries; a second factor driven by “other developing” countries in Africa and America; and a third factor that is mostly related to East Asian economies. We find that the average GiS across industrialized, emerging and other developing countries has been going down from 1987. Post 2008 financial crisis, mainly from 2011 on, the world overall has fallen in a state-of-complacency with the average GiS falling quite dramatically to reach the lowest levels of risk (0-1% potential drop in growth) in 2015. However, the dispersion within groups is quite wide. It is the smallest among industrialized countries and the largest among emerging and other developing countries. We also measure the factor stress on different quantiles of the DGP growth distribution of each country. We calculate an Armageddon-type event as we seek to find the 5% GiS quantile under 95% extreme factor events and find that it can be as large as an annual 20% drop in growth.Financial Support from the Spanish Government contract grant ECO2015-70331-C2-2-R (MINECO/FEDER) is gratefully acknowledged. We are also grateful for very helpful comments to participants at Time Series Workshop meeting (2018, Zaragoza) and at Conference on Statistical Methods for Big Data (2018, Madrid). González-Rivera acknowledges the financial support of the UC-Riverside Academic Senate grants. Any remaining errors are obviously our responsibility

Modelling intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula

In this paper, we propose to model intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures observed at a given location by fitting unobserved component models to bivariate systems of center and log-range temperatures. In doing so, the center and logrange temperature are decomposed into potentially stochastic trends, seasonal and transitory components. We contribute to the debate on whether the trend and seasonal components are better represented by stochastic or deterministic components. The methodology is implemented to intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures observed monthly in four locations in the Iberian Peninsula, namely, Barcelona, Coruña, Madrid and Seville. We show that, at each location, the center temperature can be represented by a smooth integrated random walk with time-varying slope while the log-range seems to be better represented by a stochastic level. We also show that center and log-range temperature are unrelated. The methodology is then extended to model simultaneously minimum/maximum temperatures observed at several locations. We fit a multi-level dynamic factor model to extract potential commonalities among center (log-range) temperature while also allowing for heterogeneity in different areas. The model is fitted to intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures observed at a large number of locations in the Iberian Peninsula.Financial Supportfrom\laCaixa"Foundation,grantLCF/PR/SR20/52550012-Climate change and economic challenges for the Spanish society, is gratefully acknowledged. The third author also acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Government grant PID2019-108079GBC21/AIE/10.13039/501100011033 (MINECO/FEDER).The suppor tof Jouni Helske with some of the codes used in this paper is also gratefully acknowledged. We are also grateful to participants at the 69th International Symposium of Forecasters (July, 2022),Rome-Waseda Time Series Symposium (October, 2022) and 16th International Conference, Computational and Financial Econometrics (December, 2022).Any remaining errors are obviously our responsibility

A Bootstrap Approach for Generalized Autocontour Testing

We propose an extension of the Generalized Autocontour (G-ACR) tests (González-Rivera and Sun, 2015) for one-step-ahead dynamic specifications of conditional densities in-sample and of forecast densities out-of-sample. The new tests are based on probability integral transforms (PITs) computed from bootstrap conditional densities that incorporate the parameter uncertainty without assuming any particular forecast error distribution. Consequently, the parametric specification of the conditional moments can be tested without relying on any particular error distribution. We show that the asymptotic distributions of the bootstrapped G-ACR (BG-ACR) tests are well approximated using standard asymptotic distributions. Furthermore, the proposed tests are easy to implement and are accompanied by graphical tools which provide suggestions about the potential misspecification. The results are illustrated by testing the dynamic specification of the Heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model when fitted to the popular U.S. volatility index VIX.Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science, research project ECO2015-70331-C2-2-R (MINECO/FEDER) is acknowledged by the four authors

Momento Económico (14)

En este número Temas de hoy. 21 Empleo y juventud: Viejos y Nuevos problemas. Gloría González Salazar, 3/ La defensa del salario y consumo obrero, Ma. del Carmen del Valle Rivera, 6/ Industria y maquiladoraen la frontera Norte de México, Javier Delgadillo Macías, 8/ Reflexiones sobre el desarrollo económico de la frontera norte, Sofía Mendez V., 12

Cuidados paliativos, cuidados em fim de vida e COVID-19: uma revisão do escopo

Introduction:COVID-19 exacerbated the deficit of palliative and end-of-life care provision and increased healthcare services’ burden, but the extent of the literature on that topic is unknown. Objetive: To describe the evidence of palliative and end-of-life care provision in adults during the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and Methods:The scoping review was performed according to Arksey and O’Malley’s methodological framework. The search was conducted in English and Spanish, in PubMed, SciELO, the Virtual Health Library, and the Coronavirus research database. The articles were filtered by title, abstract, and full text. The results were summarized according to the charting technique. Results: Fifty-one publications were included. A total of five categories emerged: 1) Palliative care characteristics, 2) advanced care planning, 3) support for family members and loved ones, 4) telehealth, and 5) nursing role in palliative care. Discussion:The social cost of the pandemic is reflected in the increased burden of palliative care units, higher mortality rates, and the decreased average age of death. Future studies should address the psychosocial impact of COVID-19 on patients’ loved ones, as well as the impact at the community level. Conclusions: Palliative and end-of-life care is an essential tool for COVID-19 patients care. The pandemic has enhanced the development of information and communication technologies to deliver palliative care. How to cite this article: Franco-Rocha Oscar Yesid, Carrillo González Gloria Mabel, Rivera-Romero Nathaly. Cuidados paliativos, cuidados de fin de vida y COVID-19: revisión de alcance. Revista Cuidarte. 2022;13(3):e2601. http://dx.doi.org/10.15649/cuidarte.2601       La planificación avanzada de cuidados orienta al equipo de salud con base en los deseos del paciente. La planificación debe hacerse de manera temprana y rutinaria. Debe fomentarse la comunicación entre pacientes y seres queridos. De ser posible, facilitar el acompañamiento presencial, en especial cuando se acerca el final de la vida. Las herramientas tecnológicas facilitaron la comunicación con pacientes, familiares y entre profesionales de la salud, mientras se minimizaba el riesgo de exposición al virus. Las enfermeras especialistas en cuidado paliativo lideran la coordinación de cuidado psicosocial y están entrenadas en planificación avanzada, consideraciones éticas y manejo de síntomas. Introducción: La COVID-19 exacerbó el déficit en la prestación de cuidados paliativos y de fin de vida y aumentó la sobrecarga de los servicios de salud, pero se desconoce la extensión de la literatura sobre dicho tema. Objetivo: Describir la evidencia sobre la prestación de cuidados paliativos y de fin de vida en adultos durante la pandemia de COVID-19. Materiales y métodos: Revisión de alcance según el marco metodológico de Arksey y O’Malley. La búsqueda se realizó en inglés y español; en PubMed, Scielo, la Biblioteca Virtual en Salud, y la base de datos de investigación en Coronavirus. Las publicaciones se filtraron por título, resumen y lectura completa. Los resultados se sintetizaron de acuerdo con la técnica “charting”. Resultados: Se incluyeron 51 publicaciones. En total emergieron cinco categorías: 1) caracterización de los cuidados paliativos, 2) planificación avanzada de cuidados, 3) acompañamiento a familiares y seres queridos, 4) telesalud, 5) rol de enfermería en los cuidados paliativos. Discusión:: El coste social de la pandemia se refleja en el aumento en la carga de unidades de cuidados paliativos, mayor porcentaje de mortalidad y la disminución de la edad promedio de fallecimiento. Futuros estudios deben abordar el impacto psicosocial en los seres queridos de los pacientes, así como el impacto a nivel comunitario. Conclusión: Los cuidados paliativos y de fin de vida constituyen una herramienta fundamental para la atención de pacientes con COVID-19. La pandemia potenció el desarrollo de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones para la prestación de cuidados paliativos. Como citar este artículo: Franco-Rocha Oscar Yesid, Carrillo González Gloria Mabel, Rivera-Romero Nathaly. Cuidados paliativos, cuidados de fin de vida y COVID-19: revisión de alcance. Revista Cuidarte. 2022;13(3):e2601. http://dx.doi.org/10.15649/cuidarte.2601       Introdução: A COVID-19 exacerbou o déficit na prestação de cuidados paliativos e em fim de vida e aumentou a sobrecarga sobre os serviços de saúde, mas a extensão da literatura sobre tal tópico é desconhecida. Objetivo: Descrever as evidências sobre a prestação de cuidados paliativos e de fim de vida em adultos durante a pandemia da COVID-19. Materiais e Métodos: Revisão do escopo de acordo com a estrutura metodológica de Arksey e O'Malley. A pesquisa foi realizada em inglês e espanhol; PubMed, Scielo, a Biblioteca Virtual de Saúde e o banco de dados de pesquisa do Coronavirus. As publicações foram filtradas por título, resumo e texto completo. Os resultados foram sintetizados de acordo com a técnica gráfica. Resultados: 51 publicações foram incluídas. No total, surgiram cinco categorias: 1) caracterização dos cuidados paliativos, 2) planejamento de cuidados avançados, 3) acompanhamento de parentes e entes queridos, 4) telesaúde, 5) papel de enfermagem nos cuidados paliativos. Discussão: O custo social da pandemia se reflete no aumento da carga sobre as unidades de cuidados paliativos, maiores taxas de mortalidade e uma diminuição da idade média de morte. Estudos futuros devem abordar o impacto psicossocial sobre os entes queridos dos pacientes, bem como o impacto a nível comunitário. Conclusões: Os cuidados paliativos e de fim de vida são uma ferramenta fundamental para o cuidado de pacientes com COVID-19. A pandemia tem melhorado o desenvolvimento das tecnologias de informação e comunicação para o fornecimento de cuidados paliativos. Como citar este artigo: Franco-Rocha Oscar Yesid, Carrillo González Gloria Mabel, Rivera-Romero Nathaly. Cuidados paliativos, cuidados de fin de vida y COVID-19: revisión de alcance. Revista Cuidarte. 2022;13(3):e2601. http://dx.doi.org/10.15649/cuidarte.2601      &nbsp

Vaupés entre plumajes, sonidos y colores : las aves cuentan sus historias tradicionales

Libro que contiene información básica sobre las aves del departamento del Vaupés municipio de Mitú y hace un reconocimiento a los grupos indígenas de las etnias, Pamiwa, Tucano, Yuruti, Tuyuca, Siriano y Bara junto a sus prácticas y saberes culturales.Book that contains basic information about the birds of the department of the Vaupés municipality of Mitú and recognizes the indigenous groups of the ethnic groups, Pamiwa, Tucano, Yuruti, Tuyuca, Siriano and Bara along with their cultural practices and knowledge.Entre historias y plumajes -- Yellow rumped cacique -- Lineated woopecker -- Great jacamar -- Screaming piha -- Great potoo -- Blackish nightjar -- Red billed ground-cuckoo -- White fronted nunbird -- Yellow-browed antbird -- Nocturnal curassow -- Bat falcon -- White hawk -- GlosarioPrimera ediciónna59 página

Desorption of furfural from bimetallic Pt-Fe oxides/alumina catalysts

In this work, the desorption of furfural, which is a competitive intermediate during the production of biofuel and valuable aromatic compounds, was studied using pure alumina, as well as alumina impregnated with iron and platinum oxides both individually and in combination, using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). The bimetallic sample exhibited the lowest desorption percentage for furfural. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) imaging revealed the intimate connection between the iron and platinum oxide species on the alumina support. The mechanism of furfural desorption from the Pt-Fe/Al2O3 0.5%-0.5% sample was determined using physisorbed furfural instead of chemisorbed furfural; this mechanism involved the oxidation of the C=O group on furfural by the catalyst. The oxide nanoparticles on γ-Al2O3 support helped to stabilize the furfural molecule on the surface

Incidencia de atrofia muscular por ultrasonido en la unidad de cuidados intensivos

Introduction: The incidence of muscle atrophy in the critical care has been reported to range from 50-60%,  increasing with the duration of stay. Muscle atrophy increased length of stay, and greater risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality. Muscle ultrasonography of the lower extremities has been validated as a reproducible method in its evaluation. Methods: Prospective, longitudinal, and descriptive study in the ICU of Hospital General León, Mexico. All patients admitted to the unit were included, and follow-up was performed with two measurements of the femoral rectus thickness (admission and fifth day). Atrophy was defined as a decrease of 14% in thickness, and incidence was identified as percentages with a 95% confidence interval. Results: 43 patients were analyzed, and the incidence of muscle atrophy by ultrasound was 42% (95% CI 27 to 57%). The decrease in femoral rectus thickness in the atrophy group was 28%, compared to 5.3% in the group without atrophy. Albumin correlated with femoral rectus thickness from day one (r= .55, p= .03), and malnourished patients developed muscle atrophy (p<.0001). Conclusions: The incidence of muscular atrophy measured by femoral rectus thickness by ultrasound in the ICU on the fifth day of follow-up was 42%.Introducción: La incidencia de la atrofia muscular en los cuidados críticos oscila entre el 50-60% e incrementa con el tiempo hospitalario, puede conllevar aumento del tiempo de estancia, mortalidad intra y extrahospitalaria. La ultrasonografía muscular de las extremidades inferiores se ha validado por ser un método reproducible en su evaluación. Metodología: Estudio observacional, prospectivo, longitudinal y descriptivo en la terapia intensiva del Hospital General León, México, se incluyeron a todos los pacientes con ingreso a la unidad, el seguimiento se realizó con dos mediciones del grosor del recto femoral (ingreso y quinto día), se definió atrofia con una disminución del 14% del grosor y se identificó la incidencia como porcentajes con IC al 95%. Resultados: 43 pacientes, la incidencia de atrofia muscular por ultrasonido fue de 42% (IC 95% 27 al 57%), la disminución del grosor del recto femoral en el grupo con atrofia fuel del 28% y en el grupo sin atrofia fue del 5.3%. La albúmina tuvo correlación con el grosor del recto femoral desde el primer día (r= .55, p= .03); asimismo, los pacientes con desnutrición desarrollaron atrofia muscular (p <.0001). Conclusión: Se identificó una incidencia del 42% de atrofia muscular medida por el grosor del recto femoral por ultrasonido en la terapia intensiva al quinto día de seguimient