The strategic calculus of terrorism: Substitution and competition in the Israel—Palestine conflict

Previous work on the dynamics of conflicts where we see terrorism has tended to focus on whether we see shifts in attack mode following government countermeasures. We contend that many factors other than counterinsurgency can influence whether groups resort to terrorism, including competition between groups, as well as their relationship to public opinion and other political events. Hence, understanding terrorist tactics in prolonged conflicts with multiple actors requires us to consider a more general framework of innovation, imitation, competition and dependence between actors. We use disaggregated data on terrorist attacks, counterterrorism and public opinion in the Israel—Palestine conflict to jointly evaluate predictions derived from several conventional theories of strategic behaviour. We find that the strategic calculus of Palestinian groups is complex and cannot be treated as time invariant. Our results suggest that factors such as the degree of public support, inter-group competition, the anticipation of countermeasures and non-trivial non-violent payoffs have an observable effect on the strategic behaviour of the Palestinian groups, and that structural relationships are often far from constant over time. </jats:p

Experimental fragmentation of pipe bombs with varying case thickness

Among all the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) known, pipe bombs are one of the most popular devices used by terrorists. They are simple to use, easy to construct and materials are readily available. For this IED, fragmentation is the primary injury mechanism, which makes them a desirable weapon for terrorists aiming to inflict maximum human casualties. Although the investigation of fragmentation pattern is not novel, there is limited data available on pipe bombs performance in the open literature. Therefore, this research is looking at validating results in current literature, which showed limited repetition and weak experimental design so far; by trial with six pipe bombs with two different thickness (3 of each). The pipe bombs consisted of mild steel casing and aluminised ammonium nitrate as the explosive filler. Fragments were collected, with an average recovery of 72%, and measured regarding mass and velocity. The experiment results show a correlation between the pipe thickness and both the size and velocity of fragments