Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany

AbstractDecisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government.The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5milliontons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials.In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification

The utility of the “Arable Weeds and Management in Europe” database: Challenges and opportunities of combining weed survey data at a European scale

Over the last 30 years many studies have surveyed weed vegetation on arable land. The “Arable Weeds and Management in Europe” (AWME) database is a collection of 36 of these surveys and the associated management data. Here we review the challenges associated with combining disparate datasets and explore some of the opportunities for future research that present themselves thanks to the advent of the AWME database. We present three case studies repeating previously published national scale analyses with data from a larger spatial extent. We demonstrate that i) the standardisation of abundance data to a common measure, prior to the analysis of the combined dataset, has little impact on the outcome of the analyses, ii) the increased length of environmental or management gradients allows for greater confidence in conclusions, iii) the main conclusions of analyses done at different spatial extents remain consistent. These case studies demonstrate the utility of a Europe-wide weed survey database, for clarifying or extending results obtained from studies at smaller scales. This Europe-wide data collection offers many more opportunities for analysis that could not be addressed in smaller datasets; including questions about the effects of climate change, macro-ecological and biogeographical issues related to weed diversity as well as the dominance or rarity of specific weeds in Europe

Can management intensity be more important than environmental factors? A case study along an extreme elevation gradient from central Italian cereal fields

This paper aims to assess the importance of environmental and management factors determining the weed species composition along a strong elevation gradient. A total of 76 cereal fields (39 low input and 37 intensively managed) were sampled along an elevation gradient in central Italy. Explanatory variables were recorded for each field to elucidate the role of large-scale spatial trends, of site-specific abiotic environmental conditions and of field management characters. Redundancy analysis was used to assess the relative importance of each environmental variable in explaining the variation in species composition. Our results indicate that variation in weed species composition is strongly determined by altitude, mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and also by soil characteristics. However, the level of intensification proved to be the most influential variable. There was a significant difference in species richness and composition between low-input and intensively managed fields. Intensification leads to considerable species loss at both lower and higher elevations. Low-input fields had 296 species in total, while intensively managed fields had only 196

Regional adaptation of crop rotations as key factor to improve sustainability - integrative assessment of agricultural, ecological and economic impacts

Recent impact assessment add to growing evidence that the environmental effects of cropping interact with the regional landscape. Not only the environmental risks are unevenly distributed regionally but also the agricultural feasibility and economic attractivity of cropping options. Farmers act divergently depending on the respective soil quality of their land. Moreover counter measures to reduce negative impacts of single cropping practices have a varying efficiency at different regions. Thus sustainability of cropping systems call for both integrative assessments over different kinds of indicators and for considering their regionality through regional adaptation.Our paper presents a methodology for a comparative, data driven impact analysis which was developed in the project EVA. Plot experiments on up to nine different crop rotations build the core of the research. The assessment on the ecological effects of various cropping options within the EVA project was based on empirical data gained from plot trials at ten different experimental sites across Germany. The ecological effects have been assessed by using different well established agro-ecosystems models. Data elevation at the experimental plots followed an unified, standardized protocol (methods hand book). Based on the experimental trial data an indicator set comprising 5 agricultural, 17 different single ecological and 4 economic indicators as well as 4 indicators addressing different aspects of resource efficiency have been calculated.Our results address the main process drivers and their interactions. The present work demonstrates that the design of CRs and regional adopted management practices can be an appropriate steering option improving sustainability in land use management

Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany

Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government. The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials. In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification

Arable Weeds and Management in Europe

“Arable Weeds and Management in Europe” is a collection of weed vegetation records from arable fields in Europe, initiated within the Working Group Weeds and Biodiversity of the European Weed Research Society (EWRS). Vegetation-plot data from this scientific community was not previously contributed to databases. We aim to prove the usefulness of collection for large scale studies through some first analyses. We hope to assure other weed scientists who have signalled willingness to share data, and plan to construct a full data base, making the data available for easy sharing. Presently, the collection has over 60,000 records, taken between 1996 and 2015. Many more studies for potential inclusion exist. Data originate mostly from studies exploring the effect of agricultural management on weed vegetation. The database is accompanied with extensive meta-data on crop and weed management on the surveyed fields. The criteria for inclusion were a minimum amount of information on the cultivated crop, and a georeference. Most fields were surveyed repeatedly, i.e. transects, multiple random plots, or repeated visits. All surveys aimed to record the complete vegetation on the plots. Sometimes, taxa were identified only to genus level, due to survey dates very early in the vegetation period. Plant taxonomy is standardized to the Euro+Med PlantBase