Anticipating the species jump: surveillance for emerging viral threats.

Zoonotic disease surveillance is typically triggered after animal pathogens have already infected humans. Are there ways to identify high-risk viruses before they emerge in humans? If so, then how and where can identifications be made and by what methods? These were the fundamental questions driving a workshop to examine the future of predictive surveillance for viruses that might jump from animals to infect humans. Virologists, ecologists and computational biologists from academia, federal government and non-governmental organizations discussed opportunities as well as obstacles to the prediction of species jumps using genetic and ecological data from viruses and their hosts, vectors and reservoirs. This workshop marked an important first step towards envisioning both scientific and organizational frameworks for this future capability. Canine parvoviruses as well as seasonal H3N2 and pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses are discussed as exemplars that suggest what to look for in anticipating species jumps. To answer the question of where to look, prospects for discovering emerging viruses among wildlife, bats, rodents, arthropod vectors and occupationally exposed humans are discussed. Finally, opportunities and obstacles are identified and accompanied by suggestions for how to look for species jumps. Taken together, these findings constitute the beginnings of a conceptual framework for achieving a virus surveillance capability that could predict future species jumps

Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir

BACKGROUND: In the last decades, attention to cholera epidemiology increased, as cholera epidemics became a worldwide health problem. Detailed investigation of V. cholerae interactions with its host and with other organisms in the environment suggests that cholera dynamics is much more complex than previously thought. Here, I formulate a mathematical model of cholera epidemiology that incorporates an environmental reservoir of V. cholerae. The objective is to explore the role of the aquatic reservoir on the persistence of endemic cholera as well as to define minimum conditions for the development of epidemic and endemic cholera. RESULTS: The reproduction rate of cholera in a community is defined by the product of social and environmental factors. The importance of the aquatic reservoir depends on the sanitary conditions of the community. Seasonal variations of contact rates force a cyclical pattern of cholera outbreaks, as observed in some cholera-endemic communities. CONCLUSIONS: Further development on cholera modeling requires a better understanding of V. cholerae ecology and epidemiology. We need estimates of the prevalence of V. cholerae infection in endemic populations as well as a better description of the relationship between dose and virulence

Bispectral index monitoring during cardiopulmonary resuscitation repeated twice within 8 days in the same patient: a case report

Research on cardiac resuscitation has led to various changes in the techniques and drug administration involved in modern advanced life support. Besides improving primary cardiac survival, interest is increasingly focused on a favourable neurological outcome. However, until now there has been no on-site equipment to support the clinical observations of the cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) team. Bispectral index (BIS) monitoring has been used for avoiding awareness during anaesthesia for many years. We report a case of a 68-year-old patient suffering twice from cardiac arrest due to thromboembolism within a few days. While the first cardiac resuscitation was survived without neurological consequences, the patient died after the second event. Both resuscitation events were monitored using the BIS. We discuss the course of BIS values and their possible contribution to the prediction of outcome

Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics

Outbreaks of many infectious diseases, including cholera, malaria and dengue, vary over characteristic periods longer than 1 year(1,2). Evidence that climate variability drives these interannual cycles has been highly controversial, chiefly because it is difficult to isolate the contribution of environmental forcing while taking into account nonlinear epidemiological dynamics generated by mechanisms such as host immunity(2-4). Here we show that a critical interplay of environmental forcing, specifically climate variability, and temporary immunity explains the interannual disease cycles present in a four-decade cholera time series from Matlab, Bangladesh. We reconstruct the transmission rate, the key epidemiological parameter affected by extrinsic forcing, over time for the predominant strain ( El Tor) with a nonlinear population model that permits a contributing effect of intrinsic immunity. Transmission shows clear interannual variability with a strong correspondence to climate patterns at long periods ( over 7 years, for monsoon rains and Brahmaputra river discharge) and at shorter periods ( under 7 years, for flood extent in Bangladesh, sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and the El Nino Southern Oscillation). The importance of the interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors in determining disease dynamics is illustrated during refractory periods, when population susceptibility levels are low as the result of immunity and the size of cholera outbreaks only weakly reflects climate forcing.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62876/1/nature03820.pd

Network model of immune responses reveals key effectors to single and co-infection dynamics by a respiratory bacterium and a gastrointestinal helminth

Co-infections alter the host immune response but how the systemic and local processes at the site of infection interact is still unclear. The majority of studies on co-infections concentrate on one of the infecting species, an immune function or group of cells and often focus on the initial phase of the infection. Here, we used a combination of experiments and mathematical modelling to investigate the network of immune responses against single and co-infections with the respiratory bacterium Bordetella bronchiseptica and the gastrointestinal helminth Trichostrongylus retortaeformis. Our goal was to identify representative mediators and functions that could capture the essence of the host immune response as a whole, and to assess how their relative contribution dynamically changed over time and between single and co-infected individuals. Network-based discrete dynamic models of single infections were built using current knowledge of bacterial and helminth immunology; the two single infection models were combined into a co-infection model that was then verified by our empirical findings. Simulations showed that a T helper cell mediated antibody and neutrophil response led to phagocytosis and clearance of B. bronchiseptica from the lungs. This was consistent in single and co-infection with no significant delay induced by the helminth. In contrast, T. retortaeformis intensity decreased faster when co-infected with the bacterium. Simulations suggested that the robust recruitment of neutrophils in the co-infection, added to the activation of IgG and eosinophil driven reduction of larvae, which also played an important role in single infection, contributed to this fast clearance. Perturbation analysis of the models, through the knockout of individual nodes (immune cells), identified the cells critical to parasite persistence and clearance both in single and co-infections. Our integrated approach captured the within-host immuno-dynamics of bacteria-helminth infection and identified key components that can be crucial for explaining individual variability between single and co-infections in natural populations

The nuclear receptors of Biomphalaria glabrata and Lottia gigantea: Implications for developing new model organisms

© 2015 Kaur et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedNuclear receptors (NRs) are transcription regulators involved in an array of diverse physiological functions including key roles in endocrine and metabolic function. The aim of this study was to identify nuclear receptors in the fully sequenced genome of the gastropod snail, Biomphalaria glabrata, intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni and compare these to known vertebrate NRs, with a view to assessing the snail's potential as a invertebrate model organism for endocrine function, both as a prospective new test organism and to elucidate the fundamental genetic and mechanistic causes of disease. For comparative purposes, the genome of a second gastropod, the owl limpet, Lottia gigantea was also investigated for nuclear receptors. Thirty-nine and thirty-three putative NRs were identified from the B. glabrata and L. gigantea genomes respectively, based on the presence of a conserved DNA-binding domain and/or ligand-binding domain. Nuclear receptor transcript expression was confirmed and sequences were subjected to a comparative phylogenetic analysis, which demonstrated that these molluscs have representatives of all the major NR subfamilies (1-6). Many of the identified NRs are conserved between vertebrates and invertebrates, however differences exist, most notably, the absence of receptors of Group 3C, which includes some of the vertebrate endocrine hormone targets. The mollusc genomes also contain NR homologues that are present in insects and nematodes but not in vertebrates, such as Group 1J (HR48/DAF12/HR96). The identification of many shared receptors between humans and molluscs indicates the potential for molluscs as model organisms; however the absence of several steroid hormone receptors indicates snail endocrine systems are fundamentally different.The National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of Animals in Research, Grant Ref:G0900802 to CSJ, LRN, SJ & EJR [www.nc3rs.org.uk]

A systematic review of correlates of sedentary behaviour in adults aged 18–65 years: a socio-ecological approach

Background: Recent research shows that sedentary behaviour is associated with adverse cardio-metabolic consequences even among those considered sufficiently physically active. In order to successfully develop interventions to address this unhealthy behaviour, factors that influence sedentariness need to be identified and fully understood. The aim of this review is to identify individual, social, environmental, and policy-related determinants or correlates of sedentary behaviours among adults aged 18-65 years. Methods: PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Web of Science were searched for articles published between January 2000 and September 2015. The search strategy was based on four key elements and their synonyms: (a) sedentary behaviour (b) correlates (c) types of sedentary behaviours (d) types of correlates. Articles were included if information relating to sedentary behaviour in adults (18-65 years) was reported. Studies on samples selected by disease were excluded. The full protocol is available from PROSPERO (PROSPERO 2014:CRD42014009823). Results: 74 original studies were identified out of 4041: 71 observational, two qualitative and one experimental study. Sedentary behaviour was primarily measured as self-reported screen leisure time and total sitting time. In 15 studies, objectively measured total sedentary time was reported: accelerometry (n = 14) and heart rate (n = 1). Individual level factors such as age, physical activity levels, body mass index, socio-economic status and mood were all significantly correlated with sedentariness. A trend towards increased amounts of leisure screen time was identified in those married or cohabiting while having children resulted in less total sitting time. Several environmental correlates were identified including proximity of green space, neighbourhood walkability and safety and weather. Conclusions: Results provide further evidence relating to several already recognised individual level factors and preliminary evidence relating to social and environmental factors that should be further investigated. Most studies relied upon cross-sectional design limiting causal inference and the heterogeneity of the sedentary measures prevented direct comparison of findings. Future research necessitates longitudinal study designs, exploration of policy-related factors, further exploration of environmental factors, analysis of inter-relationships between identified factors and better classification of sedentary behaviour domains

Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics

Mathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population size-dependent coupling to estimate host movement and disease incidence in metapopulations. The model captures overall measles dynamics in terms of underlying human movement in pre-vaccination England and Wales (previously established). In spatial models, edges often present a special challenge. Therefore, to test the model's robustness, we analyzed gravity model incidence predictions for coastal cities in England and Wales. Results show that, although predictions are accurate for inland towns, they significantly underestimate coastal persistence. We examine incidence, outbreak seasonality, and public transportation records, to show that the model's inaccuracies stem from an underestimation of total contacts per individual along the coast. We rescue this predicted ‘edge effect’ by increasing coastal contacts to approximate the number of per capita inland contacts. These results illustrate the impact of ‘edge effects’ on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models

Pharmacokinetics of Teriparatide (rhPTH[1–34]) and Calcium Pharmacodynamics in Postmenopausal Women with Osteoporosis

Teriparatide (rhPTH[1–34]) affects calcium metabolism in a pattern consistent with the known actions of endogenous parathyroid hormone (PTH). This report describes the pharmacokinetics and resulting serum calcium response to teriparatide in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Pharmacokinetic samples for this analysis were obtained from 360 women who participated in the Fracture Prevention Trial. Postmenopausal women with osteoporosis received daily subcutaneous injections of either teriparatide 20 μg (4.86 μmol) or placebo, median 21 months’ treatment. Serum teriparatide and calcium concentrations were measured throughout the study. An indirect-response model was developed to describe the pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic relationship between teriparatide concentrations and serum calcium response. The pharmacokinetics of teriparatide were characterized by rapid absorption (maximum concentration achieved within 30 min) and rapid elimination (half-life of 1 h), resulting in a total duration of exposure to the peptide of approximately 4 h. Teriparatide transiently increased serum calcium, with the maximum effect observed at approximately 4.25 h (median increase 0.4 mg/dl [0.1 mmol/l]). Calcium concentrations returned to predose levels by 16–24 h after each dose. Persistent hypercalcemia was not observed; one teriparatide 20 μg-treated patient had a predose serum calcium value above the normal range but <11.0 mg/dl (2.75 mmol/l). Following once-daily subcutaneous administration, teriparatide produces a modest but transient increase in serum calcium, consistent with the known effects of endogenous PTH on mineral metabolism. The excursion in serum calcium is brief, due to the short length of time that teriparatide concentrations are elevated

Limitations of perturbative techniques in the analysis of rhythms and oscillations

Perturbation theory is an important tool in the analysis of oscillators and their response to external stimuli. It is predicated on the assumption that the perturbations in question are “sufficiently weak”, an assumption that is not always valid when perturbative methods are applied. In this paper, we identify a number of concrete dynamical scenarios in which a standard perturbative technique, based on the infinitesimal phase response curve (PRC), is shown to give different predictions than the full model. Shear-induced chaos, i.e., chaotic behavior that results from the amplification of small perturbations by underlying shear, is missed entirely by the PRC. We show also that the presence of “sticky” phase–space structures tend to cause perturbative techniques to overestimate the frequencies and regularity of the oscillations. The phenomena we describe can all be observed in a simple 2D neuron model, which we choose for illustration as the PRC is widely used in mathematical neuroscience