Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

International audienceBy American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time. Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region. The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1). Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on the order of 20 feet or so. The Ninth Ward, heavily populated by African Americans, was the site of major destruction, along with several locations along the Gulf coasts of the states of Mississippi and Alabama, as well as other parts of Louisiana coastal areas (Brinkley, 2006). The number of deaths officially attributed to Hurricane Katrina was on the order of 1800 to 2000 people. The cost of the hurricane in terms of physical damage has been estimated at about US $250 billion, the costliest natural disaster in American history. It far surpassed the cost of Hurricane Andrew in 1992, the impacts of which were estimated to be about$20 billion. It also surpassed the drought in the US Midwest in 1988, which was estimated to have cost the country $40 billion, but no lives were lost. Some people have referred to Katrina as a "superstorm". It was truly a superstorm in terms of the damage it caused and the havoc it caused long after the hurricane's winds and rains had subsided. The effects of Katrina are sure to be remembered for generations to come, as were the societal and environmental impacts of the severe droughts and Dust Bowl days of the 1930s in the US Great Plains. It is highly likely that the metropolitan area of New Orleans which people had come to know in the last half of the 20th century will no longer exist, and a new city will likely replace it (one with a different culture). Given the likelihood of sea level rise on the order of tens of centimeters associated with the human-induced global warming of the atmosphere, many people wonder whether New Orleans will be able to survive throughout the 21st century without being plagued by several more tropical storms (Gill, 2005). Some (e.g., Speaker of the US House of Representatives Hastert) have even questioned whether the city should be restored in light of the potential impacts of global warming and the city's geographic vulnerability to tropical storms

Инициатива Китая ”Один пояс — Один путь“ и пандемия коронавируса

The coronavirus (and the disease it causes, COVID-19) has proven to be a rolling crisis. Rolling in the sense that it began in central China and spread westward to the Indo-Pacific region toward Europe and at the same time eastward into North America. Its impacts have been felt most intensely, so far, in several emerging hotspots along the way, such as Spain and Italy. In a matter of a few months it became a truly global pandemic and economic crisis. It continues to spread to all inhabited continents.For China, where the coronavirus started as a national epidemic, the problems were two-fold: first the virus disrupted China’s manufacturing processes as workers became infected with a fast and easy-spreading coronavirus and, secondly, disrupted the supply chain as demand for its domestic and export goods and services rapidly decreased.Коронавирус (и заболевание, которое он вызывает, COVID-19), как оказалось, переживает кризис. В том смысле, что он начался в центральной части Китая и рас-пространился на запад, в Индо-Тихоокеанский регион, к Европе и, в тоже время, на восток, в Северную Америку. Его влияние ощущалось наиболее интенсивно в нескольких возникших горячих точках, таких как Испания и Италия. Через несколько месяцев эта пробле-ма стала глобальным пандемическим и экономическим кризисом. Он распространяется на все континенты. Для Китая, где коронавирус начался как национальная эпидемия, проблемы носили двоякий характер: во-первых, вирус нарушил производственные процессы в Китае, поскольку работники заразились быстро и легко распространяющимся вирусом, во-вторых, нарушил цепочку поставок в результате чего, внутренние и экспортные товары и услуги быстро сократились

КИТАЙСКАЯ ИНИЦИАТИВА «ОДИН ПОЯС — ОДИН ПУТЬ»: ЧТО МОЖЕТ СДЕЛАТЬ «БРЕНД»

This paper is about branding goods and services and viewing China’s reference to OBOR, a new regional trade initiative, as the “accidental” branding of its efforts to institute an entirely new model of development in various places along the ancient Silk Road, as well as a number of places that fall under Chinese contemporary rise to dominance in Asia. President Xi’s use of the Silk Road was meant to generate nostalgia about a perceived favorable time in Chinese history, using it to encourage enthusiasm about China’s new efforts to “share or sell” its expertise and heavy industrial production, such as infrastructure, to developing areas. However, in a very short time Xi’s “One Belt, One Road” policy, referred to by its initials — OBOR, began to exhibit most if not all, the characteristics of a “Brand” name for goods and services.OBOR elicited positive comments from national political leaders, all of whom were potential OBOR consumers. In short order, OBOR has attracted attention, interest, responses and offers of cooperation not only from Eurasian leaders but also from leaders in Africa, Europe, Asia and most recently in South America. Strengthening OBOR as a brand can help China to enhance the value of its OBOR-related goods and services internationally and eventually lead to China’s ultimate ascendance as a dominant World economic and political Power.It is interesting to note that a new Silk Road initiative was considered by the US Department of State in 2011 in an attempt to promote integration in trade and economy between Afghanistan, Central Asia, Pakistan, and India, a North-South silk road “as a compliment to the East-West connection across Eurasia” (US State Department 2015). As noted by in a Council on Foreign Relations report by McBride (2015): «It remains to be seen if the United States and China will clash over their competing plans for developing resources in Central Asia’s Turkmenistan, creating infrastructure in Pakistan, or winning political influence with local governments throughout Asia». Настоящая работа посвящена брендированию товаров и услуг и рассмотрению новой инициативы Китая по развитию региональной торговли «Один пояс — один путь» (ОПОП) в качестве дополнительного брендирования усилий этой страны по созданию совершенно новой модели развития в различных районах, расположившихся вдоль древнего Шелкового пути, а также в некоторых районах, являющихся точками современного роста китайского доминирования в Азии. Обращение Председателя КНР Си Цзиньпина к понятию «Великий Шелковый путь» было призвано реанимировать ностальгию по временам процветания Китая в его истории, стимулируя тем самым рост энтузиазма вокруг новых усилий Китая по «предложению или продаже» его компетенций и тяжелой промышленности, например, инфраструктуры, развивающимся странам. Но достаточно быстро политика Си Цзиньпина «Один пояс — один путь» (сокращенно ОПОП) стала приобретать черты «Бренда» на товары и услуги.Инициатива ОПОП получила положительные отзывы со стороны политических лидеров стран, которые были потенциальными потребителями ОПОП. И очень скоро ОПОП привлекла внимание, вызвала интерес, положительные отзывы и предложения сотрудничества не только от лидеров евразийских стран, но и от руководителей стран Африки, Европы, Азии и совсем недавно Южной Америки. Поддержка инициативы ОПОП в качестве бренда поможет Китаю повысить значимость товаров и услуг, связанных с ОПОП, в международном масштабе и, как результат, позволит Китаю подняться до уровня доминирующей мировой экономической и политической державы.Интересно отметить, что в 2011 году Госдепартамент США рассматривал инициативу нового Шелкового пути как попытку усиления интеграции в области торговли и экономики между Афганистаном, Центральной Азией, Пакистаном и Индией, а шелковый путь Север-Юг «в качестве дополнения к связям Восток-Запад в Евразии» (State Department, 2015). Как отмечалось в докладе McBride (2015) на заседании Совета по международным отношениям: «Нам предстоит увидеть, будет ли происходить борьба между Соединенными Штатами и Китаем в отношении их конкурирующих планов освоения ресурсов Туркменистана в Центральной Азии, создания инфраструктуры в Пакистане или получения политического влияния местными правительствами по всей Азии».

Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

The El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Ni~no and subsequent La Ni~na is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (<10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical, and Pacific basin scales. We analyze observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12–14, 61–75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century

A phase II study of temozolomide vs. procarbazine in patients with glioblastoma multiforme at first relapse.

A randomized, multicentre, open-label, phase II study compared temozolomide (TMZ), an oral second-generation alkylating agent, and procarbazine (PCB) in 225 patients with glioblastoma multiforme at first relapse. Primary objectives were to determine progression-free survival (PFS) at 6 months and safety for TMZ and PCB in adult patients who failed conventional treatment. Secondary objectives were to assess overall survival and health-related quality of life (HRQL). TMZ was given orally at 200 mg/m(2)/day or 150 mg/m(2)/day (prior chemotherapy) for 5 days, repeated every 28 days. PCB was given orally at 150 mg/m(2)/day or 125 mg/m(2)/day (prior chemotherapy) for 28 days, repeated every 56 days. HRQL was assessed using the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire (EORTC QLQ-C30 [+3]) and the Brain Cancer Module 20 (BCM20). The 6-month PFS rate for patients who received TMZ was 21%, which met the protocol objective. The 6-month PFS rate for those who received PCB was 8% (P = 0.008, for the comparison). Overall PFS significantly improved with TMZ, with a median PFS of 12.4 weeks in the TMZ group and 8.32 weeks in the PCB group (P = 0.0063). The 6-month overall survival rate for TMZ patients was 60% vs. 44% for PCB patients (P = 0.019). Freedom from disease progression was associated with maintenance of HRQL, regardless of treatment received. TMZ had an acceptable safety profile; most adverse events were mild or moderate in severity

Synaptophysin and postsynaptic density protein 95 in the human prefrontal cortex from mid-gestation into early adulthood

Previous studies of postnatal synaptic development in human frontal cortex have shown that synaptic density rises after birth, reaches a plateau in childhood and then decreases to adult levels by late adolescence. A similar pattern has been seen in nonhuman primate cortex. These earlier studies in human cortex are limited, however, by significant age gaps in study subjects at critical inflection points of the developmental curve. Additionally, it is unclear if synaptic development occurs in different patterns in different cortical layers in prefrontal cortex (PFC). The purpose of this study was to examine synaptic density in human PFC across development by measuring two synaptic marker proteins: synaptophysin (presynaptic), and postsynaptic density-95 (PSD-95; postsynaptic). Western blotting was used to assess the relative levels of synaptophysin and PSD-95 in dorsolateral PFC of 42 subjects, distributed in age from 18 weeks gestation to 25 years. In addition, synaptophysin immunoreactivity was examined in each layer of areas 9 and 46 of PFC in 24 subjects, ranging in age from 0.1 to 25 years. Synaptophysin levels slowly increased from birth until age 5 and then increased more rapidly to peak in late childhood around age 10. Synaptophysin subsequently decreased until the adult level was reached by mid-adolescence, around age 16. PSD-95 levels increased postnatally to reach a stable plateau by early childhood with a slight reduction in late adolescence and early adulthood. The pattern of synaptophysin immunoreactivity seen with immunohistochemistry was similar to the Western experiments but the changes across age were more subtle, with little change by layer within and across age. The developmental patterns exhibited by these synaptic marker proteins expand upon previous studies of developmental synaptic changes in human frontal cortex; synaptic density increases steadily from birth to late childhood, then decreases in early adolescence to reach adult levels by late adolescence

Socioeconomic differentials in the immediate mortality effects of the national Irish smoking ban

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Consistent evidence has demonstrated that smoking ban policies save lives, but impacts on health inequalities are uncertain as few studies have assessed post-ban effects by socioeconomic status (SES) and findings have been inconsistent. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of the national Irish smoking ban on ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality by discrete and composite SES indicators to determine impacts on inequalities. Methods: Census data were used to assign frequencies of structural and material SES indicators to 34 local authorities across Ireland with a 2000–2010 study period. Discrete indicators were jointly analysed through principal component analysis to generate a composite index, with sensitivity analyses conducted by varying the included indicators. Poisson regression with interrupted time-series analysis was conducted to examine monthly age and gender-standardised mortality rates in the Irish population, ages ≥35 years, stratified by tertiles of SES indicators. All models were adjusted for time trend, season, influenza, and smoking prevalence. Results: Post-ban mortality reductions by structural SES indicators were concentrated in the most deprived tertile for all causes of death, while reductions by material SES indicators were more equitable across SES tertiles. The composite indices mirrored the results of the discrete indicators, demonstrating that post-ban mortality decreases were either greater or similar in the most deprived when compared to the least deprived for all causes of death. Conclusions: Overall findings indicated that the national Irish smoking ban reduced inequalities in smoking-related mortality. Due to the higher rates of smoking-related mortality in the most deprived group, even equitable reductions across SES tertiles resulted in decreases in inequalities. The choice of SES indicator was influential in the measurement of effects, underscoring that a differentiated analytical approach aided in understanding the complexities in which structural and material factors influence mortality