Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a major zoonotic and arboviral hemorrhagic fever. The conditions leading to RVF epidemics are still unclear, and the relative role of climatic and anthropogenic factors may vary between ecosystems. Here, we estimate the most likely scenario that led to RVF emergence on the island of Mayotte, following the 2006–2007 African epidemic. We developed the first mathematical model for RVF that accounts for climate, animal imports and livestock susceptibility, which is fitted to a 12-years dataset. RVF emergence was found to be triggered by the import of infectious animals, whilst transmissibility was approximated as a linear or exponential function of vegetation density. Model forecasts indicated a very low probability of virus endemicity in 2017, and therefore of re-emergence in a closed system (i.e. without import of infected animals). However, the very high proportion of naive animals reached in 2016 implies that the island remains vulnerable to the import of infectious animals. We recommend reinforcing surveillance in livestock, should RVF be reported is neighbouring territories. Our model should be tested elsewhere, with ecosystem-specific data

The challenge and response to global tourism in the post-modern era: the commodification, reconfiguration and mutual transformation of Habana Vieja, Cuba

There is a growing literature on the symbolic and cultural meanings of tourism and the ways in which cities are increasingly competing for tourists through the promotion of cultural assets and different forms of spectacle in the `tourist bubble'. To date, research on the role and impact of tourism in cities has largely been confined to those in Western, post-industrial economies. This paper examines the growth of cultural tourism in the central area of Havana, Cuba, and explores the range of unique, devolved, state-owned enterprises that are attempting to use tourism as a funding mechanism to achieve improvements in the social and cultural fabric of the city for the benefit of residents. The paper concludes with an assessment of the implications of this example for our understanding of how the pressures for restructuring and commodification can be moderated at the city level. Copyright 2008 SAGE Publications. All rights reserved. Not for commercial use or unauthorized distribution

Current Status of a Model System: The Gene Gp-9 and Its Association with Social Organization in Fire Ants

The Gp-9 gene in fire ants represents an important model system for studying the evolution of social organization in insects as well as a rich source of information relevant to other major evolutionary topics. An important feature of this system is that polymorphism in social organization is completely associated with allelic variation at Gp-9, such that single-queen colonies (monogyne form) include only inhabitants bearing B-like alleles while multiple-queen colonies (polygyne form) additionally include inhabitants bearing b-like alleles. A recent study of this system by Leal and Ishida (2008) made two major claims, the validity and significance of which we examine here. After reviewing existing literature, analyzing the methods and results of Leal and Ishida (2008), and generating new data from one of their study sites, we conclude that their claim that polygyny can occur in Solenopsis invicta in the U.S.A. in the absence of expression of the b-like allele Gp-9b is unfounded. Moreover, we argue that available information on insect OBPs (the family of proteins to which GP-9 belongs), on the evolutionary/population genetics of Gp-9, and on pheromonal/behavioral control of fire ant colony queen number fails to support their view that GP-9 plays no role in the chemosensory-mediated communication that underpins regulation of social organization. Our analyses lead us to conclude that there are no new reasons to question the existing consensus view of the Gp-9 system outlined in Gotzek and Ross (2007)

De-industrialization: a case study of Dundee, 1951–2001, and its broad implications

Using a case study of one Scottish city, Dundee, this article addresses some of the tensions involved in the use of the concept of ‘de-industrialization’. Widely used to try to understand economic and social change in the post-war years, this term is complex and controversial. This article unravels some of this complexity, arguing that the term is potentially very helpful, but needs careful definition, nuanced application and recognition of its limits. The focus here is on the impact of changing industrial structures on the labour market. After analysing the processes of firm births and deaths, the study looks at the decline of the ‘old staple’ industry, jute manufacturing in Dundee. The next sections assess the role of multinational enterprises in re-shaping the employment structure of the city, before looking at the contraction of some of the city’s other industries. Attention then turns to the impact of all these changes on the economic welfare of the city. The final section draws conclusions about our general understanding of de-industrialization from the Dundee case