Modeling Within- and Across-Customer Association in Lifetime Value with Copulas

Recent advances in linking Recency-Frequency-Monetary value (RFM) data to Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) in non-contractual settings rely on the assumption of independence between the transaction and spend processes. We propose to model jointly the inter- and intra-customer dependency between both processes using copulas, hereby accounting for the double correlation within and across customers. Applied to a unique data set of securities' transactions, we nd that modeling both associations enhances the accuracy of CLV predictions, thus improving customer valuation and selection tasks.Association;Copula;Customer Lifetime Value;Across and Within Customers

Obtaining of bitumen emulsions using nonionic surface-active substances

Background: One of the trends concerning an effective use of large-tonnage and yet scarce binder as bitumen is a considerable introduction of bitumen emulsions in water into the practice of road and civil construction. Methods: The paper presents the experimental data on the research of bituminous emulsions, the physical-chemical properties of an original BND bitumen 60/90 from Zyuzeevsky NBZ and the bitumen residue there of. Results: The resulting emulsions were highly stable and were referred to slowly structured (slowly decomposing) ones, which may be used in the preparation of cold bituminous mineral mixtures of different density used for storage, the strengthening of soils, dust removal from roads. These emulsions had a viscous consistency that may be used for solving the problem of bitumen emulsions application to an inclined surface. Bituminous residues differ by the improvement of a film binder adhesion performance with mineral material (adhesion) without the use of additional adhesion additives. Conclusion: The use of such a component, which also has an emulsifying ability and an adhesion effect, an increased resistance to delamination and coalescence of an emulsion during storage, bitumen saving and the environmental rate

Ensembles of probability estimation trees for customer churn prediction

Customer churn prediction is one of the most, important elements tents of a company's Customer Relationship Management, (CRM) strategy In tins study, two strategies are investigated to increase the lift. performance of ensemble classification models, i.e (1) using probability estimation trees (PETs) instead of standard decision trees as base classifiers; and (n) implementing alternative fusion rules based on lift weights lot the combination of ensemble member's outputs Experiments ale conducted lot font popular ensemble strategics on five real-life chin n data sets In general, the results demonstrate how lift performance can be substantially improved by using alternative base classifiers and fusion tides However: the effect vanes lot the (Idol cut ensemble strategies lit particular, the results indicate an increase of lift performance of (1) Bagging by implementing C4 4 base classifiets. (n) the Random Subspace Method (RSM) by using lift-weighted fusion rules, and (in) AdaBoost, by implementing both

Modeling Within- and Across-Customer Association in Lifetime Value with Copulas

Recent advances in linking Recency-Frequency-Monetary value (RFM) data to Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) in non-contractual settings rely on the assumption of independence between the transaction and spend processes. We propose to model jointly the inter- and intra-customer dependency between both processes using copulas, hereby accounting for the double correlation within and across customers. Applied to a unique data set of securities' transactions, we nd that modeling both associations enhances the accuracy of CLV predictions, thus improving customer valuation and selection tasks.

Unveiling the relationship between the transaction timing, spending and dropout behavior of customers

The customer lifetime value combines into one construct the transaction timing, spending and dropout processes that characterize the purchase behavior of customers. Recently, the potential relationship between these processes, either at the individual customer level (i.e. intra-customer correlation) or between customers (i.e. inter-customer correlation), has received more attention. In this paper, we propose to jointly unveil the direction and intensity of these correlations using copulas. We investigate the presence of these correlations in four distinct product categories, namely online music albums sales, securities transactions, and utilitarian and hedonic fast-moving consumer good retail sales. For all product categories, we find a substantial amount of inter- and intra-customer correlation. At the inter-customer level, on average frequent buyers tend to spend more per transaction than the other customers. In addition, on average, large buyers have a longer lifetime. At the intra-customer level, we find that the existence and intensity of compensating purchase behaviors vary across product categories and across customers. From a managerial viewpoint, our approach improves the forecasts of the firm’s future cash flows, especially for the product categories and customers where the correlations are the strongest. Moreover, the correlation parameters also provide additional insights to traditional customer valuation analysis on the magnitude, durability and volatility of the cash flows that each customer generates. We conclude by discussing how these insights can be used to improve customer portfolio decisions

Obtaining of bitumen emulsions using nonionic surface-active substances

Background: One of the trends concerning an effective use of large-tonnage and yet scarce binder as bitumen is a considerable introduction of bitumen emulsions in water into the practice of road and civil construction. Methods: The paper presents the experimental data on the research of bituminous emulsions, the physical-chemical properties of an original BND bitumen 60/90 from Zyuzeevsky NBZ and the bitumen residue there of. Results: The resulting emulsions were highly stable and were referred to slowly structured (slowly decomposing) ones, which may be used in the preparation of cold bituminous mineral mixtures of different density used for storage, the strengthening of soils, dust removal from roads. These emulsions had a viscous consistency that may be used for solving the problem of bitumen emulsions application to an inclined surface. Bituminous residues differ by the improvement of a film binder adhesion performance with mineral material (adhesion) without the use of additional adhesion additives. Conclusion: The use of such a component, which also has an emulsifying ability and an adhesion effect, an increased resistance to delamination and coalescence of an emulsion during storage, bitumen saving and the environmental rate

Obtaining of bitumen emulsions using nonionic surface-active substances

Background: One of the trends concerning an effective use of large-tonnage and yet scarce binder as bitumen is a considerable introduction of bitumen emulsions in water into the practice of road and civil construction. Methods: The paper presents the experimental data on the research of bituminous emulsions, the physical-chemical properties of an original BND bitumen 60/90 from Zyuzeevsky NBZ and the bitumen residue there of. Results: The resulting emulsions were highly stable and were referred to slowly structured (slowly decomposing) ones, which may be used in the preparation of cold bituminous mineral mixtures of different density used for storage, the strengthening of soils, dust removal from roads. These emulsions had a viscous consistency that may be used for solving the problem of bitumen emulsions application to an inclined surface. Bituminous residues differ by the improvement of a film binder adhesion performance with mineral material (adhesion) without the use of additional adhesion additives. Conclusion: The use of such a component, which also has an emulsifying ability and an adhesion effect, an increased resistance to delamination and coalescence of an emulsion during storage, bitumen saving and the environmental rate

Obtaining of bitumen emulsions using nonionic surface-active substances

Background: One of the trends concerning an effective use of large-tonnage and yet scarce binder as bitumen is a considerable introduction of bitumen emulsions in water into the practice of road and civil construction. Methods: The paper presents the experimental data on the research of bituminous emulsions, the physical-chemical properties of an original BND bitumen 60/90 from Zyuzeevsky NBZ and the bitumen residue there of. Results: The resulting emulsions were highly stable and were referred to slowly structured (slowly decomposing) ones, which may be used in the preparation of cold bituminous mineral mixtures of different density used for storage, the strengthening of soils, dust removal from roads. These emulsions had a viscous consistency that may be used for solving the problem of bitumen emulsions application to an inclined surface. Bituminous residues differ by the improvement of a film binder adhesion performance with mineral material (adhesion) without the use of additional adhesion additives. Conclusion: The use of such a component, which also has an emulsifying ability and an adhesion effect, an increased resistance to delamination and coalescence of an emulsion during storage, bitumen saving and the environmental rate