Construction of a Bayesian Network for the Assessment of Agri-Environmental Measures – The Case Study of the Venice Lagoon Watershed

A methodological framework was designed to assess the effectiveness of agri-environmental policy measures adopted by the Veneto Region to reduce diffuse water pollution of agricultural origin. Two already existing methodologies were combined in a new flexible approach for policy assessment: Conceptual Modelling and Bayesian Networks (BNs). The former supported the development of a shared conceptual model (a cognitive map) of the agro-ecosystem of the study area; while the latter allowed the development of a probabilistic model coherent with the cognitive map. BNs were selected because they allow analyses with scarce data; they can be updated when further information becomes available, and are easily understandable by layperson. The paper reports the results obtained in the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW) case study, where the current agri-environmental measures were assessed in order to identify their effectiveness in terms of reduction of nitrogen releases in water bodies connected to the lagoon ecosystem. Preliminary results obtained by implementing expert opinions in the BN pointed out the likely limited effects of the measures on the declared objective o

Seasonal and interannual variability of the surface circulation in the eastern Gulf of Cadiz (SW Iberia)

11 páginas, 6 figuras, 1 tabla.An 11-year (1996–2007) time series of current meter observations representative of the open sea circulation; a 4-year (2001–2005) time series of current meter records over the continental shelf and in situ data during different seasons have been compared in order to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the surface circulation in the eastern Gulf of Cadiz. The open sea velocity observations indicate southeastward flow along the northern continental slope of the Gulf of Cadiz, compatible with anticyclonic circulation, during most of the year and more intense during summer months. Flow reversals (northwestward circulation) at seasonal time scales in late autumn and early winter (preferably December and January) are a rather recurrent feature with variable intensity depending on the year. Anticyclonic circulation is associated with westerlies, whereas flow reversals usually take place under easterly episodes, suggesting wind-driven circulation. Negative North Atlantic Oscillation indices (indicative of southward displacement of the Azores high) are also linked to the reversals. Changes in this mainly wind-driven large-scale surface circulation are echoed by the shelf circulation: the coastal countercurrent that closes the mesoscale cyclonic cell over the eastern shelf in spring-summer (upwelling season) is replaced by and eastward current in autumn and winter.We acknowledge CANIGO (MAS3-PL95-0443) European-funded project and, particularly, Guillermo Díaz Del Río for CTD data and the UIB-IMEDEA (Special Action CICYT, REN2000-2599-E) for the software used for the optimal interpolation. Partial support from CTM2006–02326 (Ministry of Science and Technology) and P07-RNM-02938 (Junta de Andalucía) Spanish-funded projects and the Consejeria de Agricultura y Pesca of the Junta de Andalucia are also acknowledged.Peer reviewe

Trees and Shrubs Monitoring Using an Ecological Approach: The Conclusion of the Restoration Project of Borgotrebbia Landfill (Northern Italy)

Plants growth monitoring in restored landfills are poorly available in literature. These data might be of critical importance for the evaluation and improvement of current and future restoration projects. Our study was focused on the plant\u2019s growth monitoring during a Life project (LIFE10 ENV/IT/000400 NEW LIFE), designed to restore a closed landfill (located in Northern Italy) using reconstituted soils. The growth monitoring was conducted on mortality rate, stress symptoms and phenological cycle completion of 10 plant species (trees and shrubs). Data were acquired during the 12 months following the end of the restoration with an ecological approach, using Landolt\u2019s indices and CSR functional strategy. It was observed that the stress-tolerant and the heliphilous ruderal species were the ones that best adapt to the restored environment (dead plants: 0 - 39%; unhealthy plants: 24 - 42%), whereas the most competitive species were the ones with highest mortality (17 - 43%) and stress symptoms (43 - 51%)

Current Results of the EC-sponsored Catchment Modelling (CatchMod) Cluster

To support the Water Framework Directive implementation, much research has been commissioned at both national and European levels. CatchMod is a cluster of these projects, which is focusing on the development of computational catchment models and related tools. This paper presents an overview of the results of the CatchMod cluster to dat

A Numerical Model for Brownian Particles Fluctuating in Incompressible Fluids

We present a numerical method that consistently implements thermal fluctuations and hydrodynamic interactions to the motion of Brownian particles dispersed in incompressible host fluids. In this method, the thermal fluctuations are introduced as random forces acting on the Brownian particles. The hydrodynamic interactions are introduced by directly resolving the fluid motions with the particle motion as a boundary condition to be satisfied. The validity of the method has been examined carefully by comparing the present numerical results with the fluctuation-dissipation theorem whose analytical form is known for dispersions of a single spherical particle. Simulations are then performed for more complicated systems, such as a dispersion composed of many spherical particles and a single polymeric chain in a solvent.Comment: 6 pages, 8 figure

Suicide methods in Europe: a gender-specific analysis of countries participating in the "European Alliance Against Depression"

Objective: To identify the most frequent gener-specific suicide methods in Europe. Design: Proportions of seven predominant suicide methods utilised in 16 countries participating in the European Alliance Against Depression (EAAD)were reported in total and cross-nationally. Relative risk (RR)relating to suicide methods and gender was calculated. To group countries by pattern of suicide methods, hierarchical clustering was applied. Setting and participants: Data on suicide methods for 119 122 male and 41 338 female cases in 2000-4/5 from 16 EAAD countries, covering 52% of European population were obtained. Results: Hanging was the most prevalent suicide method among both males (54.3%) and females (35.6%). For males, hanging was followed by firearms (9.7%) and poisoning by drugs (8.6%); for females, by poisoning by drugs (24.7%)and jumping from a high place (14.5%). Only in Switzerland did hanging rank as second for males after firearms. Hanging ranked first among females in eight countries, poisoning by drugs in five and jumping from a high place in three. In all countries, males had a higher risk than females of using firearms and hanging and a lower risk of poisoning by drugs, drowning and jumping. Grouping showed that countries might be divided into five main groups among males; for females, grouping did not yield clear results. Conclusions: Research on suicide methods could lead to the development of gender-specific intervention strategies. Nevertheless, other approaches, such as better identification and treatment of mental disorders and the improvement of toxicological aid should be put in place

Climate change adaptation strategies in forest management: use of a decision support system for a district forest plan

The forest planning understood as mere management of stands for wood production has currently lost, compared to the past, its relevance and application possibilities; therefore, it is necessary to focus on the multifunctional services of forests. Here we present a synthesis of a district forest plan which has been developed through five pillars: (a) mapping of potential forest ecosystem services, (b) involving local stakeholders and experts, (c) exploring strategic scenarios of forest yield, (d) mapping homogeneous forest zones, and (e) capitalising the knowledge of forest working plans. The experts contributed through a decision support system NetSyMoD (Network Analysis-Creative System Modelling-Decision Support) which helps the decision process in the assessment of the scenarios of forest yield. It was possible to appreciate that an increase of yield suits well to climate adaptation in some forest zone and with the contents of forest working plans. This approach may be replicated in other forest districts where there is an history in the application of silvicultural control methods