L'utilisation par la viticulture française d'un exercice de prospective pour l'élaboration d'une stratégie d'adaptation au changement climatique

Foresight studies are regularly conducted at sectoral or geographical scales, in order to help policy makers and economic actors to define their strategy of adaptation to climate change (CC)

The Origin of the Universe as Revealed Through the Polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background

Modern cosmology has sharpened questions posed for millennia about the origin of our cosmic habitat. The age-old questions have been transformed into two pressing issues primed for attack in the coming decade: How did the Universe begin? and What physical laws govern the Universe at the highest energies? The clearest window onto these questions is the pattern of polarization in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), which is uniquely sensitive to primordial gravity waves. A detection of the special pattern produced by gravity waves would be not only an unprecedented discovery, but also a direct probe of physics at the earliest observable instants of our Universe. Experiments which map CMB polarization over the coming decade will lead us on our first steps towards answering these age-old questions.Comment: Science White Paper submitted to the US Astro2010 Decadal Survey. Full list of 212 author available at http://cmbpol.uchicago.ed

AGAPEROS: Searches for microlensing in the LMC with the Pixel Method; 2, Selection of possible microlensing events

We apply the pixel method of analysis (sometimes called ``pixel lensing'') to a small subset of the EROS-1 microlensing observations of the bar of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). The pixel method is designed to find microlensing events of unresolved source stars and had heretofore been applied only to M31 where essentially all sources are unresolved. With our analysis optimised for the detection of long-duration microlensing events due to 0.01-1 Mo Machos, we detect no microlensing events and compute the corresponding detection efficiencies. We show that the pixel method should detect 10 to 20 times more microlensing events for M>0.05 Mo Machos compared to a classical analysis of the same data which latter monitors only resolved stars. In particular, we show that for a full halo of Machos in the mass range 0.1 -- 0.5 Mo, a pixel analysis of the three-year EROS-1 data set covering 0.39 deg^2 would yield 4 events.We apply the pixel method of analysis (sometimes called ''pixel lensing'') to a small subset of the EROS-1 microlensing observations of the bar of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). The pixel method is designed to find microlensing events of unresolved source stars and had heretofore been applied only to M31 where essentially all sources are unresolved. With our analysis optimised for the detection of long-duration microlensing events due to 0.01-1 Mo Machos, we detect no microlensing events and compute the corresponding detection efficiencies. We show that the pixel method, applied to crowded fields, should detect 10 to 20 times more microlensing events for M>0.05 Mo Machos compared to a classical analysis of the same data which latter monitors only resolved stars. In particular, we show that for a full halo of Machos in the mass range 0.1-0.5 M $\bigodot$, a pixel analysis of the three-year EROS-1 data set covering $0.39deg^{2}$ would yield $\simeq 4$ events

AGAPEROS: Searches for microlensing in the LMC with the Pixel Method; 1, Data treatment and pixel light curves production

The presence and abundance of MAssive Compact Halo Objects (MACHOs) towards the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) can be studied with microlensing searches. The 10 events detected by the EROS and MACHO groups suggest that objects with 0.5 Mo could fill 50% of the dark halo. This preferred mass is quite surprising, and increasing the presently small statistics is a crucial issue. Additional microlensing of stars too dim to be resolved in crowded fields should be detectable using the Pixel Method. We present here an application of this method to the EROS 91-92 data (one tenth of the whole existing data set). We emphasize the data treatment required for monitoring pixel fluxes. Geometric and photometric alignments are performed on each image. Seeing correction and error estimates are discussed. 3.6" x 3.6" super-pixel light curves, thus produced, are very stable over the 120 days time-span. Fluctuations at a level of 1.8% of the flux in blue and 1.3% in red are measured on the pixel light curves. This level of stability is comparable with previous estimates. The data analysis dedicated to the search of possible microlensing events together with refined simulations will be presented in a companion paper.Recent surveys monitoring millions of light curves of resolved stars in the LMC have discovered several microlensing events. Unresolved stars could however significantly contribute to the microlensing rate towards the LMC. Monitoring pixels, as opposed to individual stars, should be able to detect stellar variability as a variation of the pixel flux. We present a first application of this new type of analysis (Pixel Method) to the LMC Bar. We describe the complete procedure applied to the EROS 91-92 data (one tenth of the existing CCD data set) in order to monitor pixel fluxes. First, geometric and photometric alignments are applied to each images. Averaging the images of each night reduces significantly the noise level. Second, one light curve for each of the 2.1 10^6 pixels is built and pixels are lumped into 3.6"x3.6" super-pixels, one for each elementary pixel. An empirical correction is then applied to account for seeing variations. We find that the final super-pixel light curves fluctuate at a level of 1.8% of the flux in blue and 1.3% in red. We show that this noise level corresponds to about twice the expected photon noise and confirms previous assumptions used for the estimation of the contribution of unresolved stars. We also demonstrate our ability to correct very efficiently for seeing variations affecting each pixel flux. The technical results emphasised here show the efficacy of the Pixel Method and allow us to study luminosity variations due to possible microlensing events and variable stars in two companion papers

Planck intermediate results. XLI. A map of lensing-induced B-modes

The secondary cosmic microwave background (CMB) $B$-modes stem from the post-decoupling distortion of the polarization $E$-modes due to the gravitational lensing effect of large-scale structures. These lensing-induced $B$-modes constitute both a valuable probe of the dark matter distribution and an important contaminant for the extraction of the primary CMB $B$-modes from inflation. Planck provides accurate nearly all-sky measurements of both the polarization $E$-modes and the integrated mass distribution via the reconstruction of the CMB lensing potential. By combining these two data products, we have produced an all-sky template map of the lensing-induced $B$-modes using a real-space algorithm that minimizes the impact of sky masks. The cross-correlation of this template with an observed (primordial and secondary) $B$-mode map can be used to measure the lensing $B$-mode power spectrum at multipoles up to $2000$. In particular, when cross-correlating with the $B$-mode contribution directly derived from the Planck polarization maps, we obtain lensing-induced $B$-mode power spectrum measurement at a significance level of $12\,\sigma$, which agrees with the theoretical expectation derived from the Planck best-fit $\Lambda$CDM model. This unique nearly all-sky secondary $B$-mode template, which includes the lensing-induced information from intermediate to small ($10\lesssim \ell\lesssim 1000$) angular scales, is delivered as part of the Planck 2015 public data release. It will be particularly useful for experiments searching for primordial $B$-modes, such as BICEP2/Keck Array or LiteBIRD, since it will enable an estimate to be made of the lensing-induced contribution to the measured total CMB $B$-modes.Comment: 20 pages, 12 figures; Accepted for publication in A&A; The B-mode map is part of the PR2-2015 Cosmology Products; available as Lensing Products in the Planck Legacy Archive http://pla.esac.esa.int/pla/#cosmology; and described in the 'Explanatory Supplement' https://wiki.cosmos.esa.int/planckpla2015/index.php/Specially_processed_maps#2015_Lensing-induced_B-mode_ma

Observing the Evolution of the Universe

How did the universe evolve? The fine angular scale (l>1000) temperature and polarization anisotropies in the CMB are a Rosetta stone for understanding the evolution of the universe. Through detailed measurements one may address everything from the physics of the birth of the universe to the history of star formation and the process by which galaxies formed. One may in addition track the evolution of the dark energy and discover the net neutrino mass. We are at the dawn of a new era in which hundreds of square degrees of sky can be mapped with arcminute resolution and sensitivities measured in microKelvin. Acquiring these data requires the use of special purpose telescopes such as the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), located in Chile, and the South Pole Telescope (SPT). These new telescopes are outfitted with a new generation of custom mm-wave kilo-pixel arrays. Additional instruments are in the planning stages.Comment: Science White Paper submitted to the US Astro2010 Decadal Survey. Full list of 177 author available at http://cmbpol.uchicago.ed