Do the recent severe droughts in the Amazonia have the same period of length?

We propose a new measure based on drought period length to assess the temporal difference between the recent two severe droughts of 2005 and 2010 in the Amazonia. The sensitivity of the measure is demonstrated by disclosing the distinct spatial responding mechanisms of the Northeastern and Southwestern Amazon (NA, SA) to the surrounding sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities. The Pacific and Atlantic oceans have different roles on the precipitation patterns in Amazonia. More specifically, the very dry periods in the NA are influenced by El Ni\~no events, while the very dry periods in the SA are affected by the anomalously warming of the SST in the North Atlantic. We show convincingly that the drought 2005 hit SA, which is caused by the North Atlantic only. There are two phases in the drought 2010: (i) it was started in the NA in August 2009 affected by the El Ni\~no event, and (ii) later shifted the center of action to SA resulted from anomalously high SST in North Atlantic, which further intensifies the impacts on the spatial coverage.Comment: 5 figure

P-Value and Decision Tree for Analysis of Extreme Rainfall

Tempo severo é um grande desafio, que tem forte impacto na vida dos cidadãos e na economia. Técnicas de mineração de dados podem ser empregadas para análise de eventos extremos. O método estatístico do valor-p e árvores de decisão são aplicados ao estudo de chuva intensa no estado de Santa Catarina (Brasil) em 2008

HYDROLOGICAL DYNAMICS AND RURAL MOBILITY: CONSIDERATIONS ON THE CATTLE TRANSIT IN THE SOUTH PANTANAL IN YEARS OF EXTREME EVENTS: THE DROUGHT OF 2010 AND THE FLOOD OF 2014

The Pantanal is one of the largest wetlands in the world. In Mato Grosso do Sul, the floodplain stands out on the calf production by the use of native grasslands as pastures. It has as a management characteristic the movement of the herds between lowlands and higher areas, at the pace of the annual floods. The commercialization of cattle for rearing, fattening or slaughtering with other localities consolidates an‘always in motion’livestock farming. Severe hydrometeorological events act as forcings on the management of production, which may impact on increased costs and losses. To contribute to the understanding of the territorial organization of the activity in the region, this study identified the multiannual pattern of cattle traffic at intra and intermunicipal scales and between lowland and plateau areas between 2007 and 2014. In addition, it presented the dynamics of cattle displacement in Aquidauana and Corumbá, municipalities with the largest areas of wetlands and cattle production of the South Pantanal, considering the episodic events of drought in 2010 and full in 2014. The results showed that the flow of cattle presents different levels of connectivity, with emphasis on intra-Pantanal displacement. Increases were observed in the periods of drought and pre-flood and decrease in the flood months; as well as an occasional intense flow in 2014, suggesting an emergency. This endorses adaptive strategies and the need for actions that minimize the impacts of weather and climate variability on cattle breeding in the region

A seca e a crise hídrica de 2014-2015 em São Paulo

During most of the rainy season in 2014, the Southeast of Brazil – including the Cantareira reservoir system – received below-normal rainfall. The main cause leading to that heavy lack of rain was an intense, persistent and anomalous highpressure system blocking moisture flow from the Amazon and the development and passage of cold front systems and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, which are responsible for rainfall in this region during summer. This blocking system lasted for 45 days, which is extremely rare. Low rainfall amounts coupled with an increased demand for water and an inefficient water management system led to the so-called “water crisis” during 2014, which extended into 2015A maior parte da estação chuvosa de 2014 transcorreu com valores de chuva inferiores à média histórica sobre a porção sudeste do país, incluindo o Sistema Cantareira. A causa principal para a grande falta de chuva foi a atuação de um intenso, persistente e anômalo sistema de alta pressão atmosférica que prejudicou o transporte de umidade da Amazônia, assim como a passagem/ desenvolvimento dos principais sistemas causadores de chuva, como a Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul e as frentes frias. Esse sistema, denominado de bloqueio atmosférico, teve uma duração de 45 dias, fato que resulta extremamente raro. A combinação dos baixos índices pluviométricos, o grande crescimento da demanda de água e o ineficiente gerenciamento desse recurso têm gerado uma “crise hídrica” durante os anos 2014 e 201

CONSUMO DE FIBRAS ALIMENTARES ENTRE INDIVÍDUOS ADULTOS EM UM SUPERMERCADO DE SÃO LUÍS, MARANHÃO / FIBER FOOD CONSUMPTION AMONG ADULTS INDIVIDUALS IN A SUPERMARKET OF SÃO LUÍS, MARANHÃO

Introdução: O consumo adequado de fibras possui importante participação na promoção do funcionamento intestinal,prevenção de doenças cardiovasculares, diabetes mellitus tipo 2, obesidade, dislipidemias e neoplasias intestinais. Objetivo:Estimar a ingestão de fibras em indivíduos adultos em um supermercado de São Luís (MA). Métodos: Estudo transversal,realizado em um supermercado da capital maranhense, com a participação de 133 consumidores. Foram avaliadas característicaseconômicas, grau de escolaridade e o consumo de fibras. Os dados foram apresentados por meio de frequências eporcentagens. Resultados: Observou-se que 60,9% dos clientes avaliados eram mulheres, 32,0% possuíam idade 41 a 50anos, 52,6% possuíam ensino médio e 24,0% pertenciam a classe C1. Vinte e cinco por cento teve um consumo de fibrasdesejável. O consumo desejável de fibras apresentou diferença significante com o sexo, com a escolaridade e com a classificaçãoeconômica. Ou seja, os homens (57,6%) com idade entre 41 e 50 (45,5%), com ensino superior (57,6%) e pertencentesà classe B2 (42,4%) apresentaram consumo adequado de fibras. Conclusão: O consumo desejável de fibras ainda ébaixo entre indivíduos adultos, sendo mais frequente em homens na quarta década de vida, com nível superior de escolaridadee classe econômica B2.Palavras-chave: Fibras na dieta. Consumo de alimentos. Inquéritos nutricionais.AbstractIntroduction: Adequate fiber intake has an important role in promoting good bowel function, prevention of cardiovasculardisease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity, dyslipidemia and intestinal cancers. Objective: Estimate the intake of adult'sfibers in a supermarket of São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil. Methods: Cross-sectional study in a supermarket of the capital theState of Maranhão, Brazil, with the participation of 133 consumers. They were evaluated economic characteristics, schoolingand fiber intake. The data were presented by frequencies and percentages. Results: It was observed that 60.9% of valuedclients were women, 32.0% were aged 41 to 50 years, 52.6% had high school and 24.0% belonged to C1.Vinte class andfive percent had a consumption of desirable fibers. The desirable fiber intake showed a significant difference with sex, age,schooling and the economic classification. That is, men (57.6%/p<0,001) aged between 41 and 50 (45.5%/p<0,001), withhigher education (57.6%/p<0,002) and belonging to class B2 (42.4%/p<0,001) had adequate fiber intake. Conclusion: Thedesirable fiber consumption is still low among adults and is more common in men in the fourth decade of life, with higherlevel of education and economic class B2.Keywords: Fiber in the diet. Food consumption. Nutritional surveys

AVALIAÇÃO DE AÇÕES DE EDUCAÇÃO NUTRICIONAL EM ESCOLAS PÚBLICAS DE SÃO LUÍS, MARANHÃO / NUTRITION EDUCATION ACTIVITIES ASSESSEMENT IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS FROM SÃO LUÍS, MARANHÃO, BRAZIL

Introdução: A infância apresenta importantes aspectos para a formação de hábitos e práticas comportamentais em geral, e especificamente alimentares. Nesse contexto, a escola aparece como espaço privilegiado para o desenvolvimento de ações de melhoria das condições de saúde e do estado nutricional das crianças, sendo um setor estratégico para a concretização de iniciativas de promoção da saúde Objetivo: Avaliar ações de educação nutricional em escolas públicas de São Luís (MA). Métodos: Estudo transversal realizado em alunos de duas escolas públicas. Para avaliação utilizou-se duas estratégias de intervenção nutricional: intervenção com nutricionista e intervenção com professor capacitado. Foram utilizados dois instrumentos sobre a pirâmide dos alimentos e higiene pessoal. Resultados: Avaliou-se 422 alunos de duas escolas, 64,4% foram submetidos à intervenção com nutricionista e 35,5% à intervenção com professor. Em relação aos alunos submetidos às intervenções por nutricionista e por professores capacitados, foi observada diferença entre os tipos de intervenção. As médias finais de acerto no instrumento da pirâmide dos alimentos e entre a idade, os alunos de series mais avançadas apresentavam maior número de acertos. Não foi observada associação importante entre o sexo e o tipo de intervenção, quando utilizado a higienização das mãos como instrumento de avaliação. Conclusões: As duas intervenções utilizadas tem importância significativa para avaliação do processo de educação nutricional nas escolas. No entanto, no presente estudo observou-se que no grupo da intervenção com nutricionista obteve-se melhores resultados sobre conhecimento de alimentação e nutrição dos alunos.Palavras-chave: Educação Alimentar e nutricional. Avaliação. Escolas.AbstractIntroduction: Childhood is important for the formation of habits and behavioral practices in general, specifically regarding food. In this context, the school is a privileged space for the development of activities to improve children's health conditions and nutritional status, besides being a strategic sector for implementation of health promotion initiatives. Objective: To evaluate nutrition education in public schools from São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil. Methods: For evaluation, two nutrition intervention strategies were used, as follows: nutritionist intervention and trained teacher intervention. Two instruments about the food pyramid and personal hygiene were used. Results: 422 students from two schools were evaluated. 64.4% underwent intervention by nutritionist and 35.5% underwent intervention by a trained teacher. In relation to students subjected to nutritionist and trained teacher interventions, there was a statistically significant difference between intervention types. In the final means of the food pyramid instrument and between ages, students of the most advanced grades had higher scores. There was no significant association between students' gender and intervention type when hand hygiene was used as evaluation tool. Conclusions: The two interventions have significant importance for nutrition education assessment in schools. However, it was observed in this study that the nutritionist intervention group achieved the best results on students' food and nutrition knowledge.Keywords: Food and Nutrition Education. Evaluation. Schools

Future rainfall and temperature changes in Brazil under global warming levels of 1.5ºC, 2ºC and 4ºC

The present study analyzes the impacts of global warming of 1.5ºC, 2ºC, and 4ºC above pre-industrial levels in the Brazilian territory. Climate change projected among the different global warming levels has been analyzed for rainfall, temperature and extreme climate indices. The projections are derived from the global climate model HadGEM3-A, from the High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) international project, from the United Kingdom, forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration of a subset of six CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) global climate models and considering the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) emissions scenario throughout the 21st century. Projections indicate robust differences in regional climate characteristics. These differences include changes: in the minimum and maximum air temperature close to the surface to all the country’s regions, in extremes of heat, particularly in northern Brazil, in the occurrence of heavy rainfall (Southern and Southeastern regions), and in the probability of droughts and rain deficits in some regions (Northern and Northeastern Brazil).The present study analyzes the impacts of global warming of 1.5ºC, 2ºC, and 4ºC above pre-industrial levels in the Brazilian territory. Climate change projected among the different global warming levels has been analyzed for rainfall, temperature and extreme climate indices. The projections are derived from the global climate model HadGEM3-A, from the High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) international project, from the United Kingdom, forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration of a subset of six CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) global climate models and considering the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) emissions scenario throughout the 21st century. Projections indicate robust differences in regional climate characteristics. These differences include changes: in the minimum and maximum air temperature close to the surface to all the country’s regions, in extremes of heat, particularly in northern Brazil, in the occurrence of heavy rainfall (Southern and Southeastern regions), and in the probability of droughts and rain deficits in some regions (Northern and Northeastern Brazil)

Evaluation of climate simulations produced with the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2

This paper presents an evaluation of climate simulations produced by the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC). The model was run over the 1975-2017 period at two spatial resolutions, corresponding to ~180 and ~100 km, both with 42 vertical levels, following most of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) protocol. In this protocol, observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are used as boundary conditions for the atmospheric model. Four ensemble members were run for each of the two resolutions. A series of diagnostics was computed for assessing the model's ability to represent the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric temperature, circulation and precipitation climatological features. The representation of precipitation interannual variability, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation teleconnections, the Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) and daily precipitation characteristics was also assessed. The model at both resolutions reproduced many observed temperature, atmospheric circulation and precipitation climatological features, despite several identified biases. The model atmosphere was found to be more transparent than the observations, leading to misrepresentation of cloud-radiation interactions. The net cloud radiative forcing, which produces a cooling effect on the global mean climate at the TOA, was well represented by the model. This was found to be due to the compensation between both weaker longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCRF) and shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCRF) in the model compared to the observations. The model capability to represent inter-annual precipitation variability at both resolutions was found to be linked to the adequate representation of ENSO teleconnections. However, the model produced weaker than observed convective activity associated with the MJO. Light daily precipitation over the southeast of South America and other climatologically similar regions was diagnosed to be overestimated, and heavy daily precipitation underestimated by the model. Increasing spatial resolution helped to slightly reduce some of the diagnosed biases. The performed evaluation identified model aspects that need to be improved. These include the representation of polar continental surface and sea ice albedo, stratospheric ozone, low marine clouds, and daily precipitation features, which were found to be larger and last longer than the observed features