Complex population dynamics as a competition between multiple time-scale phenomena

The role of the selection pressure and mutation amplitude on the behavior of a single-species population evolving on a two-dimensional lattice, in a periodically changing environment, is studied both analytically and numerically. The mean-field level of description allows to highlight the delicate interplay between the different time-scale processes in the resulting complex dynamics of the system. We clarify the influence of the amplitude and period of the environmental changes on the critical value of the selection pressure corresponding to a phase-transition "extinct-alive" of the population. However, the intrinsic stochasticity and the dynamically-built in correlations among the individuals, as well as the role of the mutation-induced variety in population's evolution are not appropriately accounted for. A more refined level of description, which is an individual-based one, has to be considered. The inherent fluctuations do not destroy the phase transition "extinct-alive", and the mutation amplitude is strongly influencing the value of the critical selection pressure. The phase diagram in the plane of the population's parameters -- selection and mutation is discussed as a function of the environmental variation characteristics. The differences between a smooth variation of the environment and an abrupt, catastrophic change are also addressesd.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Fur seal microbiota are shaped by the social and physical environment, show mother‐offspring similarities and are associated with host genetic quality

Despite an increasing appreciation of the importance of host‐microbe interactions in ecological and evolutionary processes, the factors shaping microbial communities in wild populations remain poorly understood. We therefore exploited a natural experiment provided by two adjacent Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) colonies of high and low social density and combined 16S rRNA metabarcoding with microsatellite profiling of mother‐offspring pairs to investigate environmental and genetic influences on skin microbial communities. Seal‐associated bacterial communities differed profoundly between the two colonies, despite the host populations themselves being genetically undifferentiated. Consistent with the hypothesis that social stress depresses bacterial diversity, we found that microbial alpha diversity was significantly lower in the high‐density colony. Seals from one of the colonies that contained a stream also carried a subset of freshwater‐associated bacteria, indicative of an influence of the physical environment. Furthermore, mothers and their offspring shared similar microbial communities, in support of the notion that microbes may facilitate mother‐offspring recognition. Finally, a significant negative association was found between bacterial diversity and heterozygosity, a measure of host genetic quality. Our study thus uncovers a complex interplay between environmental and host genetic effects, while also providing empirical support for the leash model of host control, which posits that bacterial communities are driven not only by bottom‐up species interactions, but also by top‐down host regulation. Taken together, our findings have broad implications for understanding host‐microbe interactions as well as prokaryotic diversity in general

The effects of childbirth on the pelvic-floor

Basically, vaginal delivery is associated with the risk of pelvic floor damage. The pelvic floor sequelae of childbirth includes anal incontinence, urinary incontinence and pelvic organ prolapse. Pathophysiology, incidence and risk factors for the development of the respective problems are reviewed. Where possible, recommendations for reducing the risk of pelvic floor damage are given

Surface Instability of Icicles

Quantitatively-unexplained stationary waves or ridges often encircle icicles. Such waves form when roughly 0.1 mm-thick layers of water flow down the icicle. These waves typically have a wavelength of 1cm approximately independent of external temperature, icicle thickness, and the volumetric rate of water flow. In this paper we show that these waves can not be obtained by naive Mullins-Sekerka instability, but are caused by a quite new surface instability related to the thermal diffusion and hydrodynamic effect of thin water flow.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, Late

Integrating genetic analysis of mixed populations with a spatially explicit population dynamics model

1. Inferring the dynamics of populations in time and space is a central challenge in ecology. Intra-specific structure (for example genetically distinct sub-populations or meta-populations) may require methods that can jointly infer the dynamics of multiple populations. This is of particular importance for harvested species, for which management must balance utilization of productive populations with protection of weak ones. 2. Here we present a novel method for simultaneous learning about the spatio-temporal dynamics of multiple populations that combines genetic data with prior information about abundance and movement, akin to an integrated population modelling approach. We apply the Bayesian genetic mixed stock analysis to 17 wild and 10 hatchery-reared Baltic salmon (S. salar) stocks, quantifying uncertainty in stock composition in time and space, and in population dynamics parameters such as migration timing and speed. 3. The genetic data were informative about stock-specific movement patterns, updating priors for migration path, timing and speed. Use of a population dynamics model allowed robust interpolation of expected catch composition at areas and times with no genetic observations. Our results indicate that the commonly used "equal prior probabilities" assumption may not be appropriate for all mixed stock analyses: incorporation of prior information about stock abundance and movement resulted in more plausible and precise estimates of mixture compositions in time and space. 4. The model we present here forms the basis for optimizing the spatial and temporal allocation of harvest to support the management of mixed populations of migratory species.Peer reviewe

Credibility and adjustment: gold standards versus currency boards

It is often maintained that currency boards (CBs) and gold standards (GSs) are alike in that they are stringent monetary rules, the two basic features of which are high credibility of monetary authorities and the existence of automatic adjustment (non discretionary) mechanism. This article includes a comparative analysis of these two types of regimes both from the perspective of the sources and mechanisms of generating confidence and credibility, and the elements of operation of the automatic adjustment mechanism. Confidence under the GS is endogenously driven, whereas it is exogenously determined under the CB. CB is a much more asymmetric regime than GS (the adjustment is much to the detriment of peripheral countries) although asymmetry is a typical feature of any monetary regime. The lack of credibility is typical for peripheral countries and cannot be overcome completely even by “hard” monetary regimes.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40078/3/wp692.pd

Performance of LED-Based Fluorescence Microscopy to Diagnose Tuberculosis in a Peripheral Health Centre in Nairobi.

Sputum microscopy is the only tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic available at peripheral levels of care in resource limited countries. Its sensitivity is low, particularly in high HIV prevalence settings. Fluorescence microscopy (FM) can improve performance of microscopy and with the new light emitting diode (LED) technologies could be appropriate for peripheral settings. The study aimed to compare the performance of LED-FM versus Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) microscopy and to assess feasibility of LED-FM at a low level of care in a high HIV prevalence country

Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure