Adaptación de la demanda de esquí y del comportamiento de los esquiadores a las condiciones meteorológicas, de nieve y al cambio climático en los Pirineos centrales

This study used surveys to determine how skiers perceive weather and climate change, and their behaviour concerning ski practice in the Central Pyrenees. A mixed system was used to collect the surveys; in situ and online (n=205). The climate preferences show that 80% of the skiers did not go skiing on a rainy day, 58.5% on a day of excessive wind, 46% with poor visibility, and 41% did not go skiing in marginal snow conditions. 91% percent of respondents reported having been affected by snow shortages during a ski season. Regarding adaptation measures to climate change, 49% of respondents would continue skiing less often in their usual place, 21% would ski in the usual way even with bad snow conditions, 10% would replace to skiing with another mountain activity, 10% would travelled farther to find good snow conditions, and 8% stopped skiing during that season. A total of 77% of the respondents believed that climate change has a medium or high impact on snow conditions, but 76% consider that this is a problem to be faced in the future.Se ha realizado un estudio mediante encuestas para determinar cómo los esquiadores perciben el clima y el cambio climático, así como su comportamiento con respecto a la práctica del esquí en el Pirineo Central. Se utilizó un sistema mixto para recopilar las encuestas; in situ y en línea (n = 205). Las preferencias climáticas muestran que el 80% de los esquiadores no fueron a esquiar en un día lluvioso, el 58.5% en un día de viento excesivo, el 46% con poca visibilidad y el 41% no esquió en condiciones de nieve marginal. El 91% de los encuestados informó haber sido afectado por la escasez de nieve durante una temporada de esquí. Con respecto a las medidas de adaptación al cambio climático, el 49% de los encuestados continuaría esquiando con menos frecuencia en su lugar habitual, el 21% esquiaría de la manera habitual incluso con malas condiciones de nieve, el 10% reemplazaría al esquí por otra actividad de montaña, el 10% viajaría más lejos para encontrar buenas condiciones de nieve, y el 8% dejaría de esquiar durante esa temporada. Un total de 77% de los encuestados cree que el cambio climático tiene un impacto medio o alto en las condiciones de nieve, pero el 76% considera que este es un problema al que se enfrentará en el futuro

Impacts of climate change on ski industry

Ski industry has become one of the main economic activities for many mountain regions worldwide. However, the economic viability of this activity is highly dependent of the interannual variability of the snow and climatic conditions, and it is jeopardized by climate warming. In this study, we reviewed the main scientific literature on the relationship between climate change and the ski feasibility under different climate change scenarios. In spite of the different methodologies and climate change scenarios used in the reviewed studies, their findings generally point to a significant impact of climate change on ski industry caused by a reduction in the natural availability of snow as well as a contraction in the duration of seasonal conditions suitable for ski. It emphasizes that the problem is real and should not be ignored in the study and management of tourism in mountain regions. However, there were significant differences in the impacts between different areas. These differences are mainly associated to the elevation of the ski resorts, their infrastructures for snowmaking and the various climate models, emission scenarios, time horizons and scales of analysis used. This review highlights the necessity from scientist to harmonize indicators and methodology thus allowing a better comparison of the results from different studies and increase the clarity of the conclusions transmitted to land managers and policy makers. Moreover, a better integration of the uncertainty in the model's outputs, as well as the treatment applied to the snowpack in ski slopes is necessary to provide more accurate indications on how this sector will respond to climate change. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.This study was supported by the research CGL2011-27536/HID, Hidronieve, financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER; and CTTP1/12 “Creación de un modelo de alta resolución espacial para cuantificar la esquiabilidad y la afluencia turística en el Pirineo bajo distintos escenarios de cambio climático”, financed by the Comunidad de Trabajo de los Pirineos.Peer Reviewe

Análisis de la afluencia de esquiadores a 3 estaciones de esquí del Pirineo aragonés en relación con la disponibilidad de nieve, el calendario vacacional y las condiciones meteorológica

This study analyzes the daily attendance data of skiers in three ski resorts in the Aragonese Pyrenees and their relationship with the availability of snow, the weather and the holiday calendar during the period 2003-2013. The results show great interannual variability in the length of the season and in the attendance of skiers. The stations were open an average of 130 days per season and the start and end dates are highly conditioned by the holiday calendar rather than by snow-meteorological factors. On weekends or holidays, they concentrate twice as many skiers as on a weekday. Elements such as the low availability of snow and wind conditions had the greatest impact on the attendance of skiers as well as the closure of the stations. The percentage of open tracks is also correlated with attendance; there were three times as many skiers when 75% of the ski slopes were open relative to the days when 25% were open.En este estudio se analizan los datos de asistencia diaria de esquiadores en tres estaciones de esquí en el Pirineo aragonés y su relación con la disponibilidad de nieve, las condiciones meteorológicas y el calendario vacacional durante el período 2003-2013. Los resultados muestran una gran variabilidad interanual en la duración de la temporada y en la asistencia de esquiadores. Las estaciones abrieron un promedio de 130 días por temporada y las fechas de inicio y final estuvieron muy condicionadas por calendario vacacional y no solo por factores nivo-meteorológicos. Los fines de semana concentran el doble de esquiadores que un día entre semana. La baja disponibilidad de nieve y el viento tuvieron gran impacto en la asistencia, así como en el cierre de las estaciones. El porcentaje de pistas abiertas también se correlaciona con la asistencia; hubo tres veces más esquiadores cuando el 75% de las pistas de esquí estaban abiertas que los días en que solo el 25% estaba abierto

The effect of slope aspect on the response of snowpack to climate warming in the Pyrenees

The aim of this study was to analyse the effect of slope aspect on the response of snowpack to climate warming in the Pyrenees. For this purpose, data available from five automatic weather stations were used to simulate the energy and mass balance of snowpack, assuming different magnitudes of an idealized climate warming (upward shifting of 1, 2 and 3 °C the temperature series). Snow energy and mass balance were simulated using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM). CRHM was used to create a model that enabled correction of the all-wave incoming radiation fluxes from the observation sites for various slope aspects (N, NE, E, SE, S, SW,W,NW and flat areas), which enabled assessment of the differential impact of climate warming on snow processes on mountain slopes. The results showed that slope aspect was responsible for substantial variability in snow accumulation and the duration of the snowpack. Simulated variability markedly increased with warmer temperature conditions. Annual maximum snow accumulation (MSA) and annual snowpack duration (ASD) showed marked sensitivity to a warming of 1 °C. Thus, the sensitivity of the MSA in flat areas ranged from 11 to 17 % per degree C amongst the weather stations, and the ASD ranged from 11 to 20 days per degree C. There was a clear increase in the sensitivity of the snowpack to climate warming on those slopes that received intense solar radiation (S, SE and SW slopes) compared with those slopes where the incident radiation was more limited (N, NE and NW slopes). The sensitivity of the MSA and the ASD increased as the temperature increased, particularly on the most irradiated slopes. Large interannual variability was also observed. Thus, with more snow accumulation and longer duration the sensitivity of the snowpack to temperature decreased, especially on south-facing slopes.This work was supported by the research projects CGL2011-27536/HID: “Hidrologia nival en el Pirineo central español: variabilidad espacial, importancia hidrológica y su respuesta a la variabilidad y cambio climático”, financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology, and FEDER; ACQWA (FP7-ENV- 2008-1-212250): “Efecto de los escenarios de cambio climático sobre la hidrología superficial y la gestión de embalses del Pirineo Aragonés”, financed by “Obra Social La Caixa”; and “Influencia del cambio climático en el turismo de nieve-CTTP1/10” and CTTP1/12 “Creación de un modelo de alta resolución espacial para cuantificar la esquiabilidad y la afluencia turística en el Pirineo bajo distintos escenarios de cambio climático”, financed by the Comunidad de Trabajo de los Pirineos, CTP. Financial contributions from the Canadian Rockies Snow and Ice Initiative supported by the IP3 Cold Regions Hydrology Network of the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and the Canada Research Chairs Programme are gratefully acknowledged.Peer reviewe

Análisis de la afluencia de esquiadores a 3 estaciones de esquí del Pirineo aragonés en relación con la disponibilidad de nieve, el calendario vacacional y las condiciones meteorológica

This study analyzes the daily attendance data of skiers in three ski resorts in the Aragonese Pyrenees and their relationship with the availability of snow, the weather and the holiday calendar during the period 2003-2013. The results show great interannual variability in the length of the season and in the attendance of skiers. The stations were open an average of 130 days per season and the start and end dates are highly conditioned by the holiday calendar rather than by snow-meteorological factors. Weekends have twice as many skiers as a weekday. Elements such as the low availability of snow and wind conditions had the greatest impact on the attendance of skiers as well as the closure of the stations. The percentage of open tracks is also correlated with attendance; there were three times as many skiers when 75% of the ski slopes were open relative to the days when 25% were open.En este estudio se analizan los datos de asistencia diaria de esquiadores en tres estaciones de esquí en el Pirineo aragonés y su relación con la disponibilidad de nieve, las condiciones meteorológicas y el calendario vacacional durante el período 2003-2013. Los resultados muestran una gran variabilidad interanual en la duración de la temporada y en la asistencia de esquiadores. Las estaciones abrieron un promedio de 130 días por temporada y las fechas de inicio y final estuvieron muy condicionadas por calendario vacacional y no solo por factores nivo-meteorológicos. Los fines de semana concentran el doble de esquiadores que un día entre semana. La baja disponibilidad de nieve y el viento tuvieron gran impacto en la asistencia, así como en el cierre de las estaciones. El porcentaje de pistas abiertas también se correlaciona con la asistencia; hubo tres veces más esquiadores cuando el 75% de las pistas de esquí estaban abiertas que los días en que solo el 25% estaba abierto

Hydrological response of the central Pyrenees to projected environmental change in the 21st century

11 páginas, 2 tablas, 5 figuras.[ES] Se han simulado los caudales de cinco cabeceras de ríos en los Pirineos centrales españoles, considerando diferentes escenarios de cambio climático y de uso del suelo. Los caudales fueron simulados utilizando el modelo hidro-ecológico RHESSys (Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System). Los resultados muestran que los cambios proyectados por un conjunto de modelos climáticos regionales en precipitaciones y temperaturas en el siglo XXI podrían causar una disminución del caudal anual entre el 13% y el 23%, dependiendo de la cuenca considerada. Cuando se añade a los efectos del cambio climático el efecto del aumento de la cubierta forestal en las cuencas, la disminución de los caudales anuales oscila entre el 19% y el 32%, dependiendo de la cuenca estudiada. Los mayores cambios hidrológicos se producirían a principios de primavera, verano y otoño, cuando la disminución puede superar el 40% respecto a los valores actuales. El invierno es la estación menos afectada como consecuencia del aumento de la escorrentía debido a una reducción del agua acumulada en forma de nieve y a un inicio más temprano de su fusión, así como por que durante los meses fríos el consumo de agua por parte de la vegetación es menor. La magnitud del cambio hidrológico, resultado de los escenarios de cambio ambiental, puede afectar seriamente a la gestión de los recursos hídricos y a las comunidades vegetales del Pirineo central, así como a la disponibilidad de agua en el conjunto de la cuenca del Ebro.[EN] Streamflows in five Mediterranean mountain headwaters in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that changes in precipitation and temperature could cause a decline of annual streamflow between 13% and 23%, depending on the considered catchment. When the effect of increased forest cover in the basins is added to climate change effects, the decrease in annual streamflow is enhanced up to 19% and 32%. The largest hydrological changes resulting from environmental change are projected mainly in early spring, summer and autumn, when the decline may exceed 40%. Winter is the least affected season by environmental change because of increased runoff as a consequence of reduced storage of water in the snowpack and an earlier onset of the snowmelt, and the lower consumption of water by vegetation during the cold season. The magnitude of hydrological change as a result of the assumed environmental change scenarios may lead to serious impacts on water management and ecology of the studied region, as well as the water availability in the Ebro basin.Agradecemos a la Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) y a la Confederación Hidrográfica del Ebro (CHE) por proporcionar las bases de datos utilizadas en este estudio. Este trabajo recibió el apoyo de los proyectos de investigación CGL2011-27536, CGL2011-27753-C02-01 y CGL2011-27574-CO2-02, financiados por la comisión de Ciencia y Tecnología y FEDER, “Demonstration and validation of innovative methodology for regional climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean area (LIFE MEDACC)” financiado por el programa LIFE de la Comisión Europea, y CTTP1/12 “Creación de un modelo de alta resolución espacial para cuantificar la esquiabilidad y la afluencia turística en el Pirineo bajo distintos escenarios de cambio climático”, financiado por la Comunidad de Trabajo de los Pirineos.Peer reviewe

Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: Scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees

Streamflows in a Mediterranean mountain basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflow series projected for 2021-2050 were used to simulate the management of the Yesa reservoir, which is critical to the downstream supply of irrigation and domestic water. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that increased forest cover in the basin could decrease annual streamflow by 16%, mainly in early spring, summer and autumn. Regional climate models (RCMs) project a trend of warming and drying in the basin for the period 2021-2050, which will cause a 13.8% decrease in annual streamflow, mainly in late spring and summer. The combined effects of forest regeneration and climate change are expected to reduce annual streamflows by 29.6%, with marked decreases affecting all months with the exception of January and February, when the decline will be moderate. Under these streamflow reduction scenarios it is expected that it will be difficult for the Yesa reservoir to meet the current water demand, based on its current storage capacity (476hm3). If the current project to enlarge the reservoir to a capacity of 1059hm3 is completed, the potential to apply multi-annual streamflow management, which will increase the feasibility of maintaining the current water supply. However, under future climate and land cover scenarios, reservoir storage will rarely exceed half of the expected capacity, and the river flows downstream of the reservoir is projected to be dramatically reduced. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.We thank the Spanish Meteorological State Agency (AEMET) for providing the database used in this study. This work was supported by the research projects CGL2011-27536, CGL2011-27753-C02-01 and CGL2011-27574-CO2-02, financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER; ACQWA (FP7-ENV-2008-1-212250), financed by the VII framework program of the EC; “Efecto de los escenarios de cambio climático sobre la hidrología superficial y la gestión de embalses del Pirineo Aragonés”, financed by “Obra Social La Caixa”; and CTTP1/12 “Creación de un modelo de alta resolución espacial para cuantificar la esquiabilidad y la afluencia turística en el Pirineo bajo distintos escenarios de cambio climático”, financed by the Comunidad de Trabajo de los Pirineos.Peer Reviewe