The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia

Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia’s most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease.During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications canaccount for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which canforecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRVtransmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warningforecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRVnotifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, andoceanographic variables. Data were collected from July 2008 to June 2018. Data from July 2008 toJune 2012 were used as a training data set, while July 2012 to June 2018 were used as a testing dataset. Evapotranspiration and precipitation were found to be common factors for forecasting RRVnotifications across sites. Several site-specific factors were also important in forecasting RRVnotifications which varied between LGA. From the 11 LGAs examined, nine experienced an outbreakin 2011/12 of which the models for these sites were a good fit. All 11 LGAs experienced an outbreakin 2016/17, however only six LGAs could predict the outbreak using the same model. We documentsimilarities and differences in factors useful for forecasting RRV notifications across Victoria anddemonstrate that readily available and inexpensive climate and environmental data can be used to predict epidemic periods in some areas. Furthermore, we highlight in certain regions the complexityof RRV transmission where additional epidemiological information is needed to accurately predictRRV activity. Our findings have been applied to produce a Ross River virus Outbreak SurveillanceSystem (ROSS) to aid in public health decision making in Victoria

Optimising predictive modelling of Ross River virus using meteorological variables

Background:Statistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia.Methodology/Principal findings:We developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV surveillance data from July 2000 until June 2018 in Victoria and from July 1991 until June 2018 in Western Australia. Models were developed for 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Victoria and seven LGAs in Western Australia. We found generalised additive models and generalised boosted regression models, and generalised additive models and negative binomial models to be the best fit models when predicting RRV outbreaks and notifications, respectively. No association was found with a model’s ability to predict RRV notifications in LGAs with greater RRV activity, or for outbreak predictions to have a higher accuracy in LGAs with greater RRV notifications. Moreover, we assessed the use of factor analysis to generate independent variables used in predictive modelling. In the majority of LGAs, this method did not result in better model predictive performance.Conclusions/Significance:We demonstrate that models which are developed and used for predicting disease notifications may not be suitable for predicting disease outbreaks, or vice versa. Furthermore, poor predictive performance in modelling disease transmissions may be the result of inappropriate model selection methods. Our findings provide approaches and methods to facilitate the selection of the best fit statistical model for predicting mosquito-borne disease notifications and outbreaks used for disease surveillance

Compared to placebo, long-term antibiotics resolve otitis media with effusion (OME) and prevent acute otitis media with perforation (AOMwiP) in a high-risk population: A randomized controlled trial

© 2008 Leach et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background : For children at high risk of chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM), strategies to prevent acute otitis media with perforation (AOMwiP) may reduce progression to CSOM. Methods : In a double blind study in northern Australia, 103 Aboriginal infants with first detection of OME were randomised to receive either amoxicillin (50 mg/kg/d BD) or placebo for 24 weeks, or until bilateral aerated middle ears were diagnosed at two successive monthly examinations (success). Standardised clinical assessments and international standards for microbiology were used. Results : Five of 52 infants in the amoxicillin group and none of 51 infants in the placebo group achieved success at the end of therapy (Risk Difference = 9.6% [95% confidence interval 1.6,17.6]). Amoxicillin significantly reduced the proportion of children with i) perforation at the end of therapy (27% to 12% RD = -16% [-31,-1]), ii) recurrent perforation during therapy (18% to 4% RD = -14% [-25,-2]), and iii) reduced the proportion of examinations with a diagnosis of perforation during therapy (20% to 8% adjusted risk ratio 0.36 [0.15,0.83] p = 0.017). During therapy, the proportion of examinations with penicillin non-susceptible (MIC > 0.1 microg/ml) pneumococci was not significantly different between the amoxicillin group (34%) and the placebo group (40%). Beta-lactamase positive non-capsular H. influenzae (NCHi) were uncommon during therapy but more frequent in the amoxicillin group (10%) than placebo (5%). Conclusion : Aboriginal infants receiving continuous amoxicillin had more normal ears, fewer perforations, and less pneumococcal carriage. There was no statistically significant increase in resistant pneumococci or NCHi in amoxicillin children compared to placebo children who received regular paediatric care and antibiotic treatment for symptomatic illnesses

Absent otoacoustic emissions predict otitis media in young Aboriginal children: A birth cohort study in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children in an arid zone of Western Australia

AbstractBackground: Otitis media (OM) is the most common paediatric illness for which antibiotics areprescribed. In Australian Aboriginal children OM is frequently asymptomatic and starts at a youngerage, is more common and more likely to result in hearing loss than in non-Aboriginal children.Absent transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAEs) may predict subsequent risk of OM.Methods: 100 Aboriginal and 180 non-Aboriginal children in a semi-arid zone of WesternAustralia were followed regularly from birth to age 2 years. Tympanometry was conducted atroutine field follow-up from age 3 months. Routine clinical examination by an ENT specialist wasto be done 3 times and hearing assessment by an audiologist twice. TEOAEs were measured at ages<1 and 1–2 months. Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate the associationbetween absent TEOAEs and subsequent risk of OM.Results: At routine ENT specialist clinics, OM was detected in 55% of 184 examinations inAboriginal children and 26% of 392 examinations in non-Aboriginal children; peak prevalence was72% at age 5–9 months in Aboriginal children and 40% at 10–14 months in non-Aboriginal children.Moderate-severe hearing loss was present in 32% of 47 Aboriginal children and 7% of 120 non-Aboriginal children aged 12 months or more.TEOAE responses were present in 90% (46/51) of Aboriginal children and 99% (120/121) of non-Aboriginal children aged <1 month and in 62% (21/34) and 93% (108/116), respectively, inAboriginal and non-Aboriginal children at age 1–2 months. Aboriginal children who failed TEOAEat age 1–2 months were 2.6 times more likely to develop OM subsequently than those who passed.Overall prevalence of type B tympanograms at field follow-up was 50% (n = 78) in Aboriginalchildren and 20% (n = 95) in non-Aboriginal children

Otitis media in young Aboriginal children from remote communities in Northern and Central Australia: a cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND: Middle ear disease (otitis media) is common and frequently severe in Australian Aboriginal children. There have not been any recent large-scale surveys using clear definitions and a standardised middle ear assessment. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of middle ear disease (otitis media) in a high-risk population of young Aboriginal children from remote communities in Northern and Central Australia. METHODS: 709 Aboriginal children aged 6–30 months living in 29 communities from 4 health regions participated in the study between May and November 2001. Otitis media (OM) and perforation of the tympanic membrane (TM) were diagnosed by tympanometry, pneumatic otoscopy, and video-otoscopy. We used otoscopic criteria (bulging TM or recent perforation) to diagnose acute otitis media. RESULTS: 914 children were eligible to participate in the study and 709 were assessed (78%). Otitis media affected nearly all children (91%, 95%CI 88, 94). Overall prevalence estimates adjusted for clustering by community were: 10% (95%CI 8, 12) for unilateral otitis media with effusion (OME); 31% (95%CI 27, 34) for bilateral OME; 26% (95%CI 23, 30) for acute otitis media without perforation (AOM/woP); 7% (95%CI 4, 9) for AOM with perforation (AOM/wiP); 2% (95%CI 1, 3) for dry perforation; and 15% (95%CI 11, 19) for chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM). The perforation prevalence ranged from 0–60% between communities and from 19–33% between regions. Perforations of the tympanic membrane affected 40% of children in their first 18 months of life. These were not always persistent. CONCLUSION: Overall, 1 in every 2 children examined had otoscopic signs consistent with suppurative ear disease and 1 in 4 children had a perforated tympanic membrane. Some of the children with intact tympanic membranes had experienced a perforation that healed before the survey. In this high-risk population, high rates of tympanic perforation were associated with high rates of bulging of the tympanic membrane

Association between vitamin D insufficiency and tuberculosis in a vietnamese population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Recent <it>in vitro </it>evidence suggests a link between vitamin D status and the risk of tuberculosis (TB). This study sought to examine the association between vitamin D status, parathyroid hormone (PTH) and the risk of TB in a Vietnamese population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was designed as a matched case-control study, which involved 166 TB patients (113 men and 53 women), who were age-and-sex matched with 219 controls (113 men and 106 women). The average age of men and women was 49 and 50, respectively. TB was diagnosed by the presence of acid-fast bacilli on smears from sputum, and the isolation of <it>M. tuberculosis</it>. All patients were hospitalized for treatment in a TB specialist hospital. Controls were randomly drawn from the general community within the Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and PTH was measured prior to treatment by an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLIA) on a Roche Elecsys. A serum level of 25(OH)D below 30 ng/mL was deemed to be vitamin D insufficient.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency was 35.4% in men with TB and 19.5% in controls (<it>P </it>= 0.01). In women, there were no significant differences in serum 25(OH)D and serum PTH levels between TB patients and controls. The prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency in women with TB (45.3%) was not significantly different from those without TB (47.6%; <it>P </it>= 0.91). However, in both genders, serum calcium levels in TB patients were significantly lower than in non-TB individuals. Smoking (odds ratio [OR] 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 - 14.7), reduced 25(OH)D (OR per standard deviation [SD]: 1.14; 95% CI 1.07 - 10.7) and increased PTH (OR per SD 1.13; 95% CI 1.05 - 10.4) were independently associated with increased risk of TB in men.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results suggest that vitamin D insufficiency was a risk factor for tuberculosis in men, but not in women. However, it remains to be established whether the association is a causal relationship.</p

Chikungunya as a cause of acute febrile illness in southern Sri Lanka

10.1371/journal.pone.0082259PLoS ONE812-POLN

Chikungunya Disease: Infection-Associated Markers from the Acute to the Chronic Phase of Arbovirus-Induced Arthralgia

At the end of 2005, an outbreak of fever associated with joint pain occurred in La Réunion. The causal agent, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), has been known for 50 years and could thus be readily identified. This arbovirus is present worldwide, particularly in India, but also in Europe, with new variants returning to Africa. In humans, it causes a disease characterized by a typical acute infection, sometimes followed by persistent arthralgia and myalgia lasting months or years. Investigations in the La Réunion cohort and studies in a macaque model of chikungunya implicated monocytes-macrophages in viral persistence. In this Review, we consider the relationship between CHIKV and the immune response and discuss predictive factors for chronic arthralgia and myalgia by providing an overview of current knowledge on chikungunya pathogenesis. Comparisons of data from animal models of the acute and chronic phases of infection, and data from clinical series, provide information about the mechanisms of CHIKV infection–associated inflammation, viral persistence in monocytes-macrophages, and their link to chronic signs

The naked truth: a comprehensive clarification and classification of current 'myths' in naked mole-rat biology.

The naked mole-rat (Heterocephalus glaber) has fascinated zoologists for at least half a century. It has also generated considerable biomedical interest not only because of its extraordinary longevity, but also because of unusual protective features (e.g. its tolerance of variable oxygen availability), which may be pertinent to several human disease states, including ischemia/reperfusion injury and neurodegeneration. A recent article entitled 'Surprisingly long survival of premature conclusions about naked mole-rat biology' described 28 'myths' which, those authors claimed, are a 'perpetuation of beautiful, but falsified, hypotheses' and impede our understanding of this enigmatic mammal. Here, we re-examine each of these 'myths' based on evidence published in the scientific literature. Following Braude et al., we argue that these 'myths' fall into four main categories: (i) 'myths' that would be better described as oversimplifications, some of which persist solely in the popular press; (ii) 'myths' that are based on incomplete understanding, where more evidence is clearly needed; (iii) 'myths' where the accumulation of evidence over the years has led to a revision in interpretation, but where there is no significant disagreement among scientists currently working in the field; (iv) 'myths' where there is a genuine difference in opinion among active researchers, based on alternative interpretations of the available evidence. The term 'myth' is particularly inappropriate when applied to competing, evidence-based hypotheses, which form part of the normal evolution of scientific knowledge. Here, we provide a comprehensive critical review of naked mole-rat biology and attempt to clarify some of these misconceptions

Inflammatory Cytokine Expression Is Associated with Chikungunya Virus Resolution and Symptom Severity

The Chikungunya virus infection zones have now quickly spread from Africa to parts of Asia, North America and Europe. Originally thought to trigger a disease of only mild symptoms, recently Chikungunya virus caused large-scale fatalities and widespread economic loss that was linked to recent virus genetic mutation and evolution. Due to the paucity of information on Chikungunya immunological progression, we investigated the serum levels of 13 cytokines/chemokines during the acute phase of Chikungunya disease and 6- and 12-month post-infection follow-up from patients of the Italian outbreak. We found that CXCL9/MIG, CCL2/MCP-1, IL-6 and CXCL10/IP-10 were significantly raised in the acute phase compared to follow-up samples. Furthermore, IL-1β, TNF-α, Il-12, IL-10, IFN-γ and IL-5 had low initial acute phase levels that significantly increased at later time points. Analysis of symptom severity showed association with CXCL9/MIG, CXCL10/IP-10 and IgG levels. These data give insight into Chikungunya disease establishment and subsequent convalescence, which is imperative to the treatment and containment of this quickly evolving and frequently re-emerging disease