A new 1.6-micron map of Titan’s surface

We present a new map of Titan's surface obtained in the spectral 'window' at ∼1.6 μm between strong methane absorption. This pre-Cassini view of Titan's surface was created from images obtained using adaptive optics on the W.M. Keck II telescope and is the highest resolution map yet made of Titan's surface. Numerous surface features down to the limits of the spatial resolution (∼200–300 km) are apparent. No features are easily identifiable in terms of their geologic origin, although several are likely craters

Sequential Extensions of Causal and Evidential Decision Theory

Moving beyond the dualistic view in AI where agent and environment are separated incurs new challenges for decision making, as calculation of expected utility is no longer straightforward. The non-dualistic decision theory literature is split between causal decision theory and evidential decision theory. We extend these decision algorithms to the sequential setting where the agent alternates between taking actions and observing their consequences. We find that evidential decision theory has two natural extensions while causal decision theory only has one.Comment: ADT 201

Middle and Late Pleistocene environmental history of the Marsworth area, south-central England

To elucidate the Middle and Late Pleistocene environmental history of south-central England, we report the stratigraphy, sedimentology, palaeoecology and geochronology of some deposits near the foot of the Chiltern Hills scarp at Marsworth, Buckinghamshire. The Marsworth site is important because its sedimentary sequences contain a rich record of warm stages and cold stages, and it lies close to the Anglian glacial limit. Critical to its history are the origin and age of a brown pebbly silty clay (diamicton) previously interpreted as weathered till. The deposits described infill a river channel incised into chalk bedrock. They comprise clayey, silty and gravelly sediments, many containing locally derived chalk and some with molluscan, ostracod and vertebrate remains. Most of the deposits are readily attributed to periglacial and fluvial processes, and some are dated by optically stimulated luminescence to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. Although our sedimentological data do not discriminate between a glacial or periglacial interpretation of the diamicton, amino-acid dating of three molluscan taxa from beneath it indicates that it is younger than MIS 9 and older than MIS 5e. This makes a glacial interpretation unlikely, and we interpret the diamicton as a periglacial slope deposit. The Pleistocene history reconstructed for Marsworth identifies four key elements: (1) Anglian glaciation during MIS 12 closely approached Marsworth, introducing far-travelled pebbles such as Rhaxella chert and possibly some fine sand minerals into the area. (2) Interglacial environments inferred from fluvial sediments during MIS 7 varied from fully interglacial conditions during sub-stages 7e and 7c, cool temperate conditions during sub-stage 7b or 7a, temperate conditions similar to those today in central England towards the end of the interglacial, and cool temperate conditions during sub-stage 7a. (3) Periglacial activity during MIS 6 involved thermal contraction cracking, permafrost development, fracturing of chalk bedrock, fluvial activity, slopewash, mass movement and deposition of loess and coversand. (4) Fully interglacial conditions during sub-stage 5e led to renewed fluvial activity, soil formation and acidic weathering

Normative Alethic Pluralism

Some philosophers have argued that truth is a norm of judgement and have provided a variety of formulations of this general thesis. In this paper, I shall side with these philosophers and assume that truth is a norm of judgement. What I am primarily interested in here are two core questions concerning the judgement-truth norm: (i) what are the normative relationships between truth and judgement? And (ii) do these relationships vary or are they constant? I argue for a pluralist picture—what I call Normative Alethic Pluralism (NAP)—according to which (i) there is more than one correct judgement-truth norm and (ii) the normative relationships between truth and judgement vary in relation to the subject matter of the judgement. By means of a comparative analysis of disagreement in three areas of the evaluative domain—refined aesthetics, basic taste and morality—I show that there is an important variability in the normative significance of disagreement—I call this the variability conjecture. By presenting a variation of Lynch’s scope problem for alethic monism, I argue that a monistic approach to the normative function of truth is unable to vindicate the conjecture. I then argue that normative alethic pluralism provides us with a promising model to account for it

The open future, bivalence and assertion

It is highly intuitive that the future is open and the past is closed—whereas it is unsettled whether there will be a fourth world war, it is settled that there was a first. Recently, it has become increasingly popular to claim that the intuitive openness of the future implies that contingent statements about the future, such as ‘there will be a sea battle tomorrow,’ are non-bivalent (neither true nor false). In this paper, we argue that the non-bivalence of future contingents is at odds with our pre-theoretic intuitions about the openness of the future. These are revealed by our pragmatic judgments concerning the correctness and incorrectness of assertions of future contingents. We argue that the pragmatic data together with a plausible account of assertion shows that in many cases we take future contingents to be true (or to be false), though we take the future to be open in relevant respects. It follows that appeals to intuition to support the non-bivalence of future contingents is untenable. Intuition favours bivalence

Extreme glacial cooling likely led to hominin depopulation of Europe in the Early Pleistocene

The oldest known hominin remains in Europe [~1.5 to ~1.1 million years ago (Ma)] have been recovered from Iberia, where paleoenvironmental reconstructions have indicated warm and wet interglacials and mild glacials, supporting the view that once established, hominin populations persisted continuously. We report analyses of marine and terrestrial proxies from a deep-sea core on the Portugese margin that show the presence of pronounced millennial-scale climate variability during a glacial period ~1.154 to ~1.123 Ma, culminating in a terminal stadial cooling comparable to the most extreme events of the last 400,000 years. Climate envelope–model simulations reveal a drastic decrease in early hominin habitat suitability around the Mediterranean during the terminal stadial. We suggest that these extreme conditions led to the depopulation of Europe, perhaps lasting for several successive glacial-interglacial cycles

Development of an opportunistic diagnostic prediction algorithm for osteoporosis and fragility fracture risk estimates from forearm radiographs (The OFFER1 Study)

This is a preprintData availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.Osteoporosis and associated fractures are an increasingly prevalent concern in context with an ageing population. This study reports testing of IBEX Bone Health (IBEX BH) software, applied following acquisition of forearm radiographs. IBEX BH analyses the radiograph to measure areal bone mineral density (aBMD) at the examination site. A non-randomised cross-sectional study design was performed involving 261 (254 after exclusions) participants (112/142 m/f; mean age 70.8years (SD+/-9.0); 53 with osteoporosis). They underwent posterior-anterior distal forearm radiographs; dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) of the wrists, hips and lumbar spine; and, questionnaires exploring clinical risk factors. IBEX BH automatically identifies regions of interest (ROI) at the ultra-distal (UD) and distal third (TD) regions of the radius. Analysis investigated the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) performance of IBEX BH for prediction of i) osteoporosis (based on clinical reporting of the hip and spine DXA) and ii) treatment recommendations by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) inclusive of neck of femur (NoF) areal bone mineral density (aBMD) results following National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) guidelines. AUC for osteoporosis prediction at the UD and TD ROIs were 0.86 (99% Confidence interval (CI) [0.80, 0.91]) and 0.81 (99% CI [0.75, 0.88]), respectively. AUC for treatment recommendation using FRAX inclusive of NoF aBMD at the UD and TD ROIs were 0.95 (99% CI [0.91, 1.00]) and 0.97 (99% CI [0.93,1.00]), respectively. With a matched sensitivity to FRAX (without NoF aBMD) 0.93 (99% CI [0.78, 0.99]), IBEX BH predicted at the UD and TD ROIs recommended treatment outcomes by NOGG guidelines using FRAX (with NoF aBMD) with specificity 0.89 (99% CI 0.83, 0.94]) and 0.93 (99% CI [0.87, 0.97]), respectively. This is compared with 0.60 (99% CI [0.51, 0.69]) for FRAX (without NoF aBMD). Results demonstrate the potential clinical utility of IBEX BH as an opportunistic screening tool.Ibex Innovation

Violent video games and morality: a meta-ethical approach

This paper considers what it is about violent video games that leads one reasonably minded person to declare "That is immoral" while another denies it. Three interpretations of video game content a re discussed: reductionist, narrow, and broad. It is argued that a broad interpretation is required for a moral objection to be justified. It is further argued that understanding the meaning of moral utterances – like "x is immoral" – is important to an understanding of why there is a lack of moral consensus when it comes to the content of violent video games. Constructive ecumenical expressivism is presented as a means of explaining what it is that we are doing when we make moral pronouncements and why, when it comes to video game content, differing moral attitudes abound. Constructive ecumenical expressivism is also presented as a means of illuminating what would be required for moral consensus to be achieved

Oldest known pantherine skull and evolution of the tiger

The tiger is one of the most iconic extant animals, and its origin and evolution have been intensely debated. Fossils attributable to extant pantherine species-lineages are less than 2 MYA and the earliest tiger fossils are from the Calabrian, Lower Pleistocene. Molecular studies predict a much younger age for the divergence of modern tiger subspecies at <100 KYA, although their cranial morphology is readily distinguishable, indicating that early Pleistocene tigers would likely have differed markedly anatomically from extant tigers. Such inferences are hampered by the fact that well-known fossil tiger material is middle to late Pleistocene in age. Here we describe a new species of pantherine cat from Longdan, Gansu Province, China, Panthera zdanskyi sp. nov. With an estimated age of 2.55–2.16 MYA it represents the oldest complete skull of a pantherine cat hitherto found. Although smaller, it appears morphologically to be surprisingly similar to modern tigers considering its age. Morphological, morphometric, and cladistic analyses are congruent in confirming its very close affinity to the tiger, and it may be regarded as the most primitive species of the tiger lineage, demonstrating the first unequivocal presence of a modern pantherine species-lineage in the basal stage of the Pleistocene (Gelasian; traditionally considered to be Late Pliocene). This find supports a north-central Chinese origin of the tiger lineage, and demonstrates that various parts of the cranium, mandible, and dentition evolved at different rates. An increase in size and a reduction in the relative size of parts of the dentition appear to have been prominent features of tiger evolution, whereas the distinctive cranial morphology of modern tigers was established very early in their evolutionary history. The evolutionary trend of increasing size in the tiger lineage is likely coupled to the evolution of its primary prey species

A measurement of the W boson mass using large rapidity electrons

We present a measurement of the W boson mass using data collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron during 1994--1995. We identify W bosons by their decays to e-nu final states where the electron is detected in a forward calorimeter. We extract the W boson mass, Mw, by fitting the transverse mass and transverse electron and neutrino momentum spectra from a sample of 11,089 W -> e nu decay candidates. We use a sample of 1,687 dielectron events, mostly due to Z -> ee decays, to constrain our model of the detector response. Using the forward calorimeter data, we measure Mw = 80.691 +- 0.227 GeV. Combining the forward calorimeter measurements with our previously published central calorimeter results, we obtain Mw = 80.482 +- 0.091 GeV